CORRESPONDENCE.
THE CRISIS IN FRANCE.
[FROlf A CORRESPONDENT.]
Paris, January 23.
Tax singular importance of the crisis produced by M. Thiers' proffered resignation makes me address to you some observations • on it. Luck brought me to Paris the very day of its climax, and as I have since mixed with men who are in various ways closely con- nected with the political life of the country, I would venture to convey my impression of the present position of affairs. That it is one fraught with serious consequences all are agreed, but what is to be its upshot is a question in every one's mouth, and very wariously answered.
The first point I would impress is that the crisis is by no means over. M. Thiers' resignation has indeed been withdrawn, and there is no question of his abandoning office within the next four-and- twenty hours ; but the compromise patched up on the spur of the moment not only contains within it no guarantees of stability, but every hour that has elapsed since its manufacture, has heightened the sensation of insecurity and precariousness. On Saturday evening
men came away from Versailles with an impression, contracted in the hurlyburly of agitation, that next morning already was con- siderably modified, and by this time has pretty well evaporated. It was believed that M. Thiers had knocked under, that the Assembly had exerted its authority, and that a state of things had thus been inaugurated which afforded the elements for a protracted provisional administration. The personal influence of M. Thiers, it was assumed, had received a blow to which it had bowed. The impression of the general public was that he had shown a reprehensible temper ; that he had received a sharp rap over the knuckles, and that now for some time this petulant temper, so chastised, would refrain from showing itself again, under con- sciousness that if it did so it would meet with harder knocks ; and that the threat of resignation had been spent. At the present moment, this impression has been much modified. If there is a sentiment which can be called general, one which all parties, Right and Left, Legitimist, Bonapartist, and Radical—and I include the men who are attached to M. Thiers, and look on him as the indispensable safety-plank for the country—concur in, it is this,—that what occurred last Friday may again occur at any hour, and that what is the paramount business of the day is to discover a safeguard against this probable event. The best friends of the President admit regretfully that his impatience of contradiction has become a grave danger. They believe his removal from office at present to be a fatal event—for these special friends dread alike an uncompromising Republic and a mili- tary dictatorship—the two contingencies that present themselves to their minds as alone possible on M. Thiers' premature cessation of office, they are actively, but, I venture to think, feebly seeking to coax the old man into a softer humour, into a change of temper, which at his age can hardly be brought about. For there are questions close at hand on which he has opinions even more head- strong than on the matter he was so violent about. If there is one thing M. Thiers prides himself on, it is his knowledge of military affairs. He is obstinate on the topic of military organization, and the impression amongst those who know him well and strenuously desire his continuation in the Presidency, is that on this question he will get himself into such antagonism with the Assembly as will result in a renewed resignation, which this time must be final. On the other hand, those who do not care for M. Thiers, and who only urged his remaining in office because they were not prepared at the moment with something to be put in his place, have been busy ever since concocting the combination which might supply the deficiency they had been labouring nuclei, and which had paralyzed them iu the critical hour. This is the second point of capital importance to be observed. The Assembly is in the majority Conservative. The unanimity exhibited in the vote asking M. Thiers to remain President was, indeed, factitious. It was a concurrence of incompatible elements under circumstances quite exceptional. The Left voted heartily, because a resigna- tion at that time would have left the Right masters of the field, and the Right voted because, though numerically in the ascend- ant, the crisis had come so suddenly that they had not had time to complete their arrangements. But these arrangements they have since been actively engaged in completing. It is supposed in some well-informed circles that an arrangement had been con- cluded with Marshal MacMahon that he should be invested with M. Thiers' succession. I would speak with reserve on a point necessarily doubtful, because the scheme was hatched in secret, but I must say that it is my distinct impression the Marshal never expressed himself willing to play the part asked of him. But if my in- formation is correct, the plan of a military successor not only had been projected, but the individual actually found, and if M. Thiers had not given in on Saturday evening, France would have been under the rule of an obscure General named by the Assembly, who would have governed with a Ministry of the Right—for how long I do not know—but with powers of a very stringent nature. In fact, it would have been a coup d'etat by the Assembly through the agency of the military,—in itself an anonymous coup d'etat, but necessarily leading to the establish- ment of a personal government of some kind. It is not necessary to give names. The thing is now past, and when the occasion turns up again to-morrow or next week quite a different soldier- hand may be the one set to work ; but I assure you positively that on Saturday afternoon France was within a hair's-breadth of a military dictatorship, exercised in the name of one who, outside France, has never been heard of.
The melancholy circumstance is that there is every reason to apprehend that the contingency of military dictatorship is not only probable, but consciously desired by the bulk of those who are in a position to influence the destinies of France. The Republican
party is wanting in the elements of organization. I may say that this very morning I conversed with a workman I have known many years, who, only four days ago, came out of the Versailles prison, into which he was thrown as a Communist on the denun- ciation of a police agent—as proof that I have not been gathering my impressions only amongst timid politicians. There is intense re- sentment in Republican sections, and there is great animosity between the old and the new officers in the Army ; but still the military force as a mass is under the leadership of men who are mere professional soldiers, animated with a sentiment of Reaction, and I would say of Restoration. And if you talk to intelligent and thoughful Frenchmen, nine out of ten tell you, and with an appal- ling lucidity of demonstration, that their country has got into a blind alley, out of which it can be led only under the guidance of a General and in the fashion of a military movement. It is mourn- ful to me, after some months' absence, to see how much progress this sentiment has made, how greatly self-confidence and hope have faded from men's minds. At every turn you meet the thought of military intervention, of the sword as the instrument which alone can cut the entangled knot of the present position. Now I would not be misunderstood to express an opinion in whose name the sword will be put in action. On this head there is con- siderable diversity of opinion, for while in the Assembly there is a decided desire to establish Monarchy with some constitutional institutions, outside it those who contemplate military action connect it mainly with a Bonapartist restoration. The great difficulty for the Monarchists is to find a common leader. I perfectly appreciate the scrupulous nature of the Due d'Aumale and respect his sensitive delicacy, but still the fact is that he has lost so much ground as never to have been seri- ously thought of in the combinations schemed on last Saturday. If he had never entered the Assembly his reserve would have been intelligible, but since he has chosen to seek a seat, he has done himself' harm by never engaging in the business of the Chamber, and particularly by walking away from the division on Friday. There are positions which impose obligations, and doubly so when the positions have been self-sought in a revolutionary period, when men have to assert themselves. However, there are two very insignificant symptoms of how the Conservative elements at present are striving to effect a fusion that would concentrate force in the Monarchical interest. The Bishop of Orleans' address at the marriage ceremony of Princess Marguerite de Nemours, spoken before the whole family, was a manifesto on behalf of Henri V.,—and Louis Veuillot, who till now was guardedly cautious not to run down Bonapartism, for the last few days has poured forth streams of invective against its representatives. It is now to be seen whether the majority of the Assembly will proceed, as it is disposed, to name a Vice-President, as a sort of curb-chain on M. Thiers. With a body so discordant and so liable to sensations of panic, it is impossible to reckon on calm resolutions ; but at the present moment, there is a decided disposition to attach a kind of Keeper to M. Thiers, who, in the event of an emergency, might then be ready to take his place, and govern the country in the sense of the Right. If this party can hold its own, we may expect to see before many days some military man named Vice- President ; but whether this election be made or not, I venture to say that not a fortnight will elapse before an angry collision will again have ensued between the Assembly and M. Thiers, which will not end as smoothly as the last. If you wish to study the present condition of this country, you must revert to the history of France in that dreary period of abortive revolu- tions, changes, and complications which constituted the reign of
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