POLITICS
Why Mr Blair encourages the party hardly anyone likes (not Labour of course)
SION SIMON
The Cabinet committee which earlier in the summer considered the merits of intro- ducing proportional representation for elections to the European parliament was unequivocally opposed to it. The Home Secretary Jack Straw and the parliamentary business managers were particularly antag- onistic to the plan. Tony Blair, as is his privilege, overruled them. Thus the 1999 European parliamentary elections will be conducted under PR, even though Mr Blair's personal distaste for such a change in the voting system is well-known. We may discern from this without too much difficul- ty that he has an ulterior motive: an offer- ing to the Liberals, whose self-interested monomania for electoral 'reform' is only too familiar.
The incident also serves to reinforce our picture of the Prime Minister as a lone visionary at the heart of government. This image is one of the keys to understanding British politics in the new era: Tony Blair is New Labour. He is the beginning and the end of it. Which is not to say that his col- leagues have not made an epic ideological journey; but they have followed where he has led. They will troop behind him wher- ever he goes next, but they have given up guessing where it might be. The gulf between Mr Blair and the rest is far more than one of leadership: it is one of imagina- tion.
How bizarre, then, that he should be such good friends with Paddy Ashdown. The two men get on well personally, speak to each other regularly and consider them- selves to be partners in a project to rebuild the political landscape. A friend of the Prime Minister's to whom I voiced surprise that there was no animosity between the two men just looked bland: 'Tony is not the type to allow whether he likes someone to influence their relationship, not if he thinks it is important.'
Mr Ashdown cannot believe his luck. A revealing story about him dates from April when, during the general election cam- paign, the three main party leaders were asked how well they knew their opposite numbers. Mr Major replied, 'Not well.' Mr Blair said, 'Hardly at all.' Mr Ashdown could not help himself: 'We meet on the margin of great events,' he said. It was a poignant illustration of Mr Ashdown's decade-long struggle with the discrepancy between the peripheral figure he is and the statesman he would like to be. He is stunned, and deeply impressed, that Mr Blair is offering him the chance of half a page in the history books; and he is deter- mined that his party is not going to snatch it from him.
This may, however, be beyond his grasp, however. In recent years the Liberals have perfected the sanctimoniously preachy tone which used to be the preserve of the Labour hard Left. 'New politics' notwith- standing, Labour modernisers are finding it difficult to warm to the business of drag- ging the pompously truculent Liberals along with them. Nobody likes the Liberals at the best of times. Their leaders are guilty of a naked lusting after power and glory, without the power or the glory. But the real problem with the Liberals is that they are unreconstructedly Old Labour.
So it is tedious to hear them agonise about which offers they will and won't accept and whether or not they should enter into coalition. Nobody has offered them any deals. Malcolm Bruce should count himself lucky to be offered a British Airways executive club card, never mind a coalition with the most popular govern- ment in history. They are like middle-aged prostitutes pontificating over who shall have their virginity. Fortunately, nobody is fooled.
On the other hand, by including them in a special Cabinet committee to consider constitutional matters, and by his insistence on PR for Europe, Mr Blair is encouraging them. There is no doubt that he is serious about the 'new politics'. On the metaphysi- cal level which is so important in New Labour, 'new politics' means an end to the tribal yah-booery and oppositionism which he hates. Partnership with the Liberals would be its most perfect manifestation. Nobody in government, including the Prime Minister, knows what this means in practice; but there is an active intention to build an ever closer relationship. Mr Blair can do this because he is in complete con- trol: he cannot be forced to give anything away. But by choosing to do so, he could redraw the political map.
In which case, it is not surprising that Messrs Blair and Mandelson have taken a dim view of the way the Liberal leadership has played to its own crowd this week. Either they have just been attacking Labour for the sake of it, or they are really serious about the promise-and-spend policies they have been declaiming. Both options are a long way from the 'grown-up politics' the Blair team expects from potential partners. The contrast between the Liberals in East- bourne and Mr Blair in Brighton being stern with the TUC says it all.
On the practical level, things are simpler than they might seem. The first point to note is that, manifesto commitment though it is, there will not be a referendum on pro- portional representation in this parliament. The government barely pretends that there is any chance of a new voting system actual- ly being introduced in time for the next general election. In truth, even the referen- dum will not take place until after it. Mr Blair will not make decisions in advance of knowing the composition of the next parlia- ment when he does not have to.
The Liberals, though they Will fall into paroxysms of righteous indignation, will remain on board because they have been given PR for elections to the European and Scottish parliaments and the Welsh assem- bly, and there is a real possibility of intro- ducing it in local government. They will also have some investment by this time in whatever partnership arrangements have been made for the general election. For such arrangements are what Mr Blair wants, and he is unlikely to be either out- manoeuvred or faced down by the Liberals.
Which just leaves the question of what happens after the next election, assuming Labour wins and there is a referendum on PR. The debate will be monopolised by PR boffins and become massively complex. But at the heart of it there are only two alterna- tives. Either Mr Blair campaigns for some kind of proportional representation, in which case he will win, British politics will be transformed forever and Liberal activists will overnight forget their shyness about coalitions. Or Mr Blair will campaign against, in which case he will win and the people will have democratically killed off PR. That would be the end of the Liberal party, and the end of the 'new politics'.
Mr Blair does not really have a choice. He will swallow his distaste for PR, we will all swallow our dislike of the Liberals, we will close our eyes and, hand in hand, we will dive into the calm green waters of per- manent coalition government.
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