Piling up reasonableness

Peter Paterson

A n extraordinary change of atmosphere ra.is apparent in the coal dispute, since Arthur Scargill put the finishing touches to his fiendish plot for turning what in NUM constitutional terms was a series of regional strikes, called and run by the semi- autonomous local miners' unions, into a centralised national pit stoppage. And all without meeting the rule-book obligation to secure the assent of the miners in a ballot.

For the first time, the sound of knocking knees can be heard in the land, from Whitehall, from the City, from the head- quarters of the nationalised steel, electricity and railway industries: and most disconcer-

`I saw this terrifying film about a were-man.'

tingly of all, from Hobart House, where Mr, Ian MacGregor presides over the Board. Nationa Coal' Mr MacGregor, we now learn, made valuable concession to the Nationalcarg,' tirl';, of Mineworkers even before !o r triumphed over his opponents on the NO'''., executive by changing the rules to tn5kf: easier to secure a majority in a ballot, wili" at the same time, teasingly deferring atlY

in the prospect that a ballot will be held

foreseeable future. That was last Thursclil' before the nation set off for the Easter 10,1,, must be wondering whether God is still 011 day that Mr Scargui

Mr MacGregor apparently

the weather, manipulative skills into account when, Pric", to these events, he told the leaders of twut small mining unions (the NUM was 11°., represented) that he is ready to

, or God, or Mr Scargill sr

emend 1'1' cies over a period longer than the one yr!ee programme of pit closures and redundarla;

of it,

already announced. On the alareing 1" v

he is prepared to abandon rateL failed to take

he was committed to — and for which Ha` received maximum political support — he

bidcboiduldton,telnodse air a many thought ha

But those armch strategists who I., all along insisted that with the winter Witcve the and mountainous stocks of coal at be power stations, Mr Scargill must either bluffing or behaving like a lunatic were

MacGregor beginning to twitch. After the macGregor concession — strangely con- cealed by all concerned for nearly a week

they are now heavily immersed in the technical desiderata of power station burn rates, the amount of oil-fired capacity

available to the Central Electricity Generating Board, the seriousness or other- wise of postponing maintenance schedules Ort nuclear plant, and the geopolitics of the Gulf.

What they are still hoping, of course, is that Mr MacGregor, with all his cunning, knows that Mr Scargill is now in too deep to respond to his overture and is merely piling uP reasonableness as ammunition in the _struggle for public opinion. As Mr Edward Heath might ruefully testify, public sYm- 13,.athY for the miners in 1974 was a crucial 'actor in his own defeat at their hands. But if we grant Mr MacGregor the can- niness for which he is famous, and see his concession as a further baiting of the hook, there remains a more generalised apprehen- sion over a prolonged coal strike than was apparent before King Arthur held his coun- cil of war at Sheffield on Maundy Thurs- day. People who had written off the idea that the miners would actually choose to go on indefinite strike, with all the hardships evolved, if, or when, consulted by ballot, badenlY realised that there was to be no ot.

„It would be extremely uncharitable to

the ballot requirement. He has, after all, his three times in two years to persuade "is Members to fight against closures, or for

2human Pay, or for both. It is no less than Inan after three failed attempts to find another way, particularly if your own vision di,that is good for the miners, the coal in- dustry' the trade union movement, the rhour Party — even the future of Britain, Mr Scargill never thinks small — remain 40 brilliantly clear.

i, titt the meantime, Mr Scargill can thank !allot. newspapers for helping him to avoid a Their unsubtle arm-twisting day by day enabled the Left to achieve the miracle hat to vote on the strike issue would actual- be undemocratic, unfair to those (unlike Nottinghamshire and one or two other

f° nu areas) already out on strike, and a

tin of defeatism which could only weaken inine already divided union. The demoralised oderates on the NUM's national execu- ,,n, who do not appear to rise as early as heScargill, could hardly have lived up to high expectations the newspapers had ofand the journalistic backing they tire eiveid helped Mr Scargill and his allies to sirin P'e on them — literally on one occa- sev'e outmanoeuvre them, split them into th_ rat factions, and last Thursday, to send ,In Packing.

W the editorials may say, 80 per

cent 0 of 1- t t. lack he miners seem untroubled by the

evid a ballot, judging by the only

the ence we have, which is their support of strike.

are : . They are not going to work, they eXisting on social security, they have in

all probability already abandoned their hopes of summer holidays new cars, refur- bished kitchens, and whatever else they might have hoped to spend their money on. Mr Scargill's case must make a good deal more sense to them than it does to the rest of us.

What is that case? Primarily, despite the obfuscating statistics that he effortlessly produces in every interview and speech, Mr Scargill's position rests on a tacit acknowledgment that something like a quarter of the nation's coal mines account for the bulk of the Coal Board's enormous losses. So the MacGregor plan — 20,000 redundancies or transfers, 20 pits closed, and a reduction of 4 million tonnes of an- nual output — must be a total lie. Why else would Mrs Thatcher transfer the butcher of the steel industry to the NCB, unless his job was to cut out the uneconomic and mar- ginal production? Who can possibly believe MacGregor, asks Mr Scargill, when he unveils a programme which closes down fewer mines than were axed in the previous year? Obviously there is a hit list far longer than the 20 condemned pits owned up to by MacGregor, a list much more in line with the realities of the Coal Board's financial plight. The belief of the miners in this analysis is borne out by the fact that the only resistance to the strike on any scale is that of the Nottinghamshire men, whose pits are profitable and have long lives ahead of them. The Notts miners believe they can survive and prosper without the dead weight of South Wales, Scotland and Kent around their necks. (Their rivalry with Yorkshire in all likelihood has different, deeper, roots.) When Mr MacGregor weaves his futuristic dreams of the coal industry, highly productive pits, highly paid miners, the Nottinghamshire contingent think of their productivity, their high pay. It has all happened before (as the Spectator pointed out on 14 April) and the ghost of George Spencer MP (Lab), founder of the breakaway Nottinghamshire miners' union, which dissociated itself from the NUM's predecessor, the Miners' Federation of Great Britain back in 1926, and survived for eleven years before being forced back into the fold, must be chuckling at this example of history repeating itself. Significantly, there was a second breakaway in that tense period in the history of the miners' union. At about the same time as George Spencer offered his name as a description of the most heinous crime in the NUM calendar, the Com- munists formed their own breakaway union in Scotland. It lasted a few years only, and, unlike the Notts rebellion, has all but been forgotten: certainly, communism within the NUM has different connotations to Spencerism.

Nowadays there is no need for the Left to threaten revolt: they are in full control of the main union, apart from the rebellious Midlands men and the geographically misplaced Point of Ayr mine in North Wales. But as in 1926, the official leaders of

the Notts Miners are flummoxed by the stubborn disobedience of their members, and their continued defiance of their orders to stop working. Only mass picketing on a huge scale, it would seem, can prevent them from continuing to cross picket lines, forc- ing a police presence of such magnitude as to be politically, if not financially, insup- portable. Unless he can achieve a closing of the ranks by forcing the kulaks of Notting- hamshire out, Mr Scargill's hopes of win- ning the full-hearted support of other unions — which he badly needs — looks slim.

There are some plus factors on the miners' side, of course. Already there is talk of increases in electricity charges to pay for the burning of expensive oil at the power stations. There are doubts, too, about the real degree of confidence in sufficient coal being stockpiled to last, if not until kingdom come, at least to the autumn. The steel industry is suffering. A dock strike threatens. And there is alarmist talk about using the army to move coal around the country. But these are thin pickings for a union leader who has fixed his terms as unconditional surrender: which was his response to Mr MacGregor's peace feeler. Mr Scargill's Light Brigade has broken into a canter and is beginning to advance.