TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE BULGARIAN COUP D'iTAT.
INDIGNATION and disgust are weak words with which to describe the feelings of Englishmen at the shameful treatment that Prince Alexander of Bulgaria has received at the hands of a gang of political desperadoes. So disgraceful a combination of bribery, treachery, and fraud as the con- spiracy by which he was kidnapped, if it has not disturbed the sinister complacency of the Governments of Austria and Ger- many, has at least called forth protests and remonstrance from the public opinion of Europe. When a Palace intrigue de- thrones a weak-kneed and discredited Sovereign, or when popular discontent overwhelms a dynasty which the people have ceased to trust, no one has a right to feel aggrieved. A nation must settle such things for itself. It is a very different matter when a popular and gallant Prince, beloved by the people over whom he rules, and thoroughly identified with their national hopes and aspirations, is, if not by the direct intervention of a foreign Power, at any rate by the party which leans on and is inspired by that Power, seized in his capital, has his name forged to a deed of abdication, and his person subjected to the indignity of capture and restraint. Such acts have no parallel in recent times. Hardly in history can an analogy be found. Catherine II.'s most high-handed intrigues in Poland show no such instance of political brigandage. Napoleon even never seized a reigning Prince. We do not, of course, suggest that Russia actually ordered the coup d'itat to take the form it did. It is far more probable that it was the work of those who wished to ingratiate themselves with the Czar by ridding him of a neighbour who had become hateful in his eyes. Nor can we suppose that Russia in any way officially connived at his detention. Still, if Russia wishes to clear her- self of any trace of complicity in the crime, she should do nothing to hinder Prince Alexander's restoration. To adopt the fruits of an ill deed is to share the guilt. If she does adopt its results, she is no less responsible for the conspiracy effected in her interests than is Mr. Parnell for outrage in Ireland. The only consolation for the infamous and brutal intrigue is the courage and fidelity shown by the people of Bulgaria and Eastern Roumelia to the man they are proud to recognise as Alexander the Liberator. There is little doubt but that the people and the troops, now that they have recovered from the stunning blow inflicted on them, are deter- mined to submit to no foreign dictation, and whatever may be the consequences, will, if he consents, replace their Prince on the throne to which he has never forfeited his right, and defy the Powers to eject him by force.
Is it possible that Russia will be able to prevent this ? It may be that, if Prince Alexander goes first to Germany, the influence of the Court will there be exerted to keep him from returning to Bulgaria. What will then be the policy of Russia? Her Ambassador at Constantinople is said to have hinted that if the Provisional Government founded by the conspirators was overthrown, Russia would occupy Bulgaria to restore order. This has quite the old ring in it,—a statement not unlike Catherine's declaration that her troops entered Poland to protect the liberties of the Republic. If such an occupation actually takes place, the danger will be grave indeed. How could Russia have her soldiers at Philippopolis without awakening in her own people an almost uncontrollable desire to carry Constantinople with a rush / The difficulties are, however, almost as great should Prince Alexander be successfully restored to his throne. For the last eight years, from one cause and another, Russian influence in the Balkans has steadily declined. Lately, Russia has made persistent attempts to regain that influence. If Prince Alexander returns to Sofia in spite of her dislike, and in spite of the Russian party of conspiracy, his position will be double as strong as it was, and Russian influence in Bulgaria absolutely at an end.. Can Russia submit to this humiliation ? Will not she rather propose terms for the final partition of Turkey, even though such terms would involve sacrifices such as she was at one time unwilling to make ? It is quite possible that these terms have already been discussed. If Russia will only allow large enough compensation to Austria, there is nothing to prevent an agreement. It may be that Prince Bismarck has made up his mind to let Russia go to Con- stantinople, and that he is not disinclined that she should now realise that it is so. Such an event would not hinder what is said to be his scheme for turning Austria into a great non- Teutonic Power. For Russia to take Constantinople would mean an immense share of the Balkan Peninsula being trans- ferred to Austria. Austria would go to Salonica. People talk of such an event as if it were a matter of a sea-port,—almost as if it were of Montenegro going to Dulcigno. As a fact, it would mean the incorporation into the Austrian Empire of all the Provinces that lie between the Bosnian frontier and the 2Egean, if not the absorption of Servia and Montenegro into the bargain. The balance of race within the Austrian dominion would be immensely affected ; and thus might be hastened the time when the German-speaking lands will feel that they must drop off, and unite with the rest of the Teutonic tongue in a single Empire, under the guidance of Prussia,—the final end in view in all Prince Bismarck's diplomacy. To allow Russia free play in Eastern Europe would also have more immediate beneficial results for Germany. Her difficulties there would prevent the race- hatred between Teuton and Slav, bitter almost beyond the possibility of belief, from breaking out on the Baltic and along the Polish marches, and would postpone, perhaps for ever, the struggle in which Germany would be fight- ing for her life between the attacks of Russia and France allied.
Such fears may be without foundation ; such predictions groundless. Yet, whatever is the outcome, England's policy is clear. Our fears of Russia must not allow us to be made the cat's- paw of Austria. She must fight her own battle, not use us to obtain her ends. It matte's to her very much what is the strength of Russian influence in the Balkan Peninsula. To us it matters comparatively little. If England cared to play a purely cynical or purely selfish game, she would be for ever urging Russia to advance, and to seize on Constantinople. Russia, once there, would be drawn, for the first time in her history, into a posi- tion vulnerable to European attack. Her difficulties with her new conquests and the jealousy of Austria would keep her from any desire, or from any power, to attack India. Her energies would be concentrated in Europe, and for the next fifty years we should hear little of her activity in Central Asia. There could be no greater protection against an invasion through the passes of Afghanistan than the occupation of Constantinople by the Russians. But though England need not dread the advance of Russia, and will refuse absolutely to• fight in a quarrel which is not hers, we by no means desire that any policy so cynical as that just sketched should be adopted. We deplore that the small self-governing States should be overthrown ; for in them is far more hope for pro- gress and civilisation than in the deadening, materialising advance of Russia. To encourage these self-governing States by the exercise of moral influence and in con- cert with the rest of Europe is one thing ; it is quite another to inflict the miseries of war upon our people in order to uphold them, especially since we know that in doing so we are forcing Russia to expand along her other line of advance, where her forward movement might mean a life-and-death struggle for the possession of India. We fear that Lord Salisbury is very deeply possessed with the opposite and false notion that to support Turkey in Europe is to defend India. Yet in the present juncture there is little danger of his drawing us into any difficulties. The tone of the Press throughout England has shown too clearly that the country would never allow us to quarrel with Russia on such a ground as the revolution in the Balkans. " It's a disgraceful business ; but it's no affair of ours," has been the feeling every- where exhibited, and on such a feeling there is fortunately no chance of founding a war craze. It is ridiculous for the French and German papers to talk of the Bulgarian coup d'etat as a blow to England. It is nothing of the kind. To some extent it is a blow to Lord Salisbury's diplomacy ; a blow which, if it had fallen on Mr. Gladstone, we should have had the whole Tory Press declaring to be an affront which Russia dared inflict only when a cowardly and discredited Liberal Administration was in office. But a blow to Lord Salisbury's diplomacy is a very different thing from a blow to England. When the Powers begin to realise that England is not going to allow herself to be made useful by stopping the Russian advance, we shall probably see that, far from the coup d'e'tat being a blow to England, it will have increased our influence and power in proportion as it has made difficulties for Austria and Germany. As long as we wait and watch, we shall see very much the best of the game. It is safer not to play at the three-card trick, even when the players are all Emperors.
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