THE SITUATION IN FRANCE.
ANY signs combine to indicate that the Emperor of the French is getting restless again. Looking out over France with eyes which see deeper than those of his courtiers or of the members who support his regime, he fears, it is said, that his popularity is on the wane ; and there is reason for the fear. There can be no doubt that, reasonably or un- reasonably, France is becoming dissatisfied ; that discontent more or less bitter is infecting all classes ; that the weari- ness which in France precedes change is becoming once more perceptible. The bourgeoisie have fallen into one of their paroxysms of economy, declare that the expenditure of the State is frightful, and purchase whole editions of a pamphlet showing that the Empire has added 120 millions to the debt of France and twenty millions to her annual expenditure. The dearness of bread, though the price is kept down by subventions to the bakers, worries workmen without a poor-law, and several manufacturing towns are suffering as Coventry did when her ribbon trade failed, and in petitions to the Empress declare they are starving, and charge their distress directly upon the English Treaty. She is to influence her husband, who is said to be hard. The new military law has given profound annoyance to the workmen as well as the peasants ; in no less than five cases they have attempted a hopeless resistance, and in three of these—at Toulouse, Bor- deaux, and Rennes—the eineute became serious. For the first time since 1852 the cry " Down with the Empire 1" has been raised, and it seems almost certain, though it is officially denied, that the troops have been compelled to charge. In Bordeaux for a few hours a real revolt of the old pattern was expected ; all shops were closed ; artillery appeared in the streets, and but for the decision of the Prefect the work- men might have descended regularly into the streets. So formidable is the popular disgust, that in Paris and Lyons the law, though nominally applied, remains a dead letter ; that doggrel songs have been circulated by Government, pro- mising that the work required of the Garde Mobile shall be "on the frontier ;" and that Marshal Niel, no mere soldier, thinks it expedient to taunt all who resist the new draft with want of courage. Englishmen would only smile ; but the circumstances must be serious under which a Marshal of France flings out that insinuation against any class of his countrymen. Of course, as the Army obeys, all overt resist- ance has been sharply put down, as it has been put down by every Government of France till it fell, and in every city except Paris. Even Louis Philippe was strong enough to sup- press a real insurrection in Lyons. Napoleon, however, knowing France, knows how homogeneous her population has become, knows how national her Army really is, and looks at the dis- content with a perturbed mind. It will take time to grow, and may matter little to him personally ; but Napoleon thinks of his dynasty, desires to found as well as reign, to be suc- ceeded by the pale child who this Easter goes to Notre Dame for his "first communion." He sees that something must be done, something striking, as the Temps says, no matter what, if he is to recover his hold over men's imaginations, and deliberates upon a new plebiscite and a great foreign enterprise. The apparently meaningless pam- phlet just republished in the Moniteur is to be circulated in a few days as a broadsheet through the departments at the expense of the State, and its interior meaning begins at last to be apparent. As the Scotsman has been the first to point out, there is one drift in its enigmatical sentences, in its long roll-call of plebiscites,—that France, in electing the Napoleons, affirmed also the hereditary principle as a guarantee of soli- dity. The plebiscite which crowned the First Napoleon Emperor also settled the succession ; the present Emperor reigns by the grace of God and the will of the people ; and the voice of the people, says the motto to the pamphlet, is the voice of God. It is conjectured, therefore, that Napoleon, who has never given his son a title,—though he once ex- pressed publicly a wish that, —like the Princes of Valois, he should be called "Enfant de France," will formally designate him his successor, and submit that act to the people for direct ratification. They will accept it, of course, France being well aware that, be their title what it will, Divine right, or Parlia- mentary • vote, or popular election, she can when weary cast out her Kings, and the acceptance may remind both Oppositions—the Red and the White—that France still obeys with cordiality the dynasty of Napoleon. It may not be with- out its effect also on the elections, and on that most un- manageable of all parties, the ultra-Imperialist, which be- lieves that the Napoleonic regime can only be maintained by repression, and is ready to vote down liberal proposals when made by the Emperor himself. He fretted, it is said, under their resistance to his Press law much more than under any attack from the regular Opposition.
If this drama for country folks were all, there would be little need for hostile comment, and the inspired Press of Paris does needful flatteries with enough of skill, and quite sufficient abandon ; but there is reason to fear that it is not all, that the Emperor feels the necessity of doing something to improve his position abroad, to satisfy Frenchmen that they are still the first people in the world. They have an uneasy sense that they are not ; that despite the reorganiza- tion of the Army, America cares nothing about them, and Prussia quietly repels alike menaces and overtures. They can dictate to Italy ; but that scarcely consoles them, for dictation there tends at least as much to the advantage of Rome as to the glory of France. They do not want to fight Germany if they can help it, or England, which presents just now no point of attack, but they long ardently for some event which will rehabilitate their self-respect. The Emperor, whose mind has not ceased wholly to be sympathetic to French feeling, sees this, and listens, it is reported, with grave atten- tion to the counsels of his cousin Jerome, who points to Russia as the easiest and yet the greatest object of attack. There are many inducements, if war must be, to select St. Petersburg as the enemy. Napoleon dislikes isolation, and Austria, which has most cause to fear Russia, would in this case be his ally ; would be able, if Russia were defeated, to stretch her dominion over the whole Valley of the Danube. It has just been discovered, from the papers of the late M. de Varenne, that a pamphlet called Gare aux Barbares! directed against Prussia on account of her Russian affiance, was paid for by Count von Beust. England, which has no love for Russia, would not interfere, and Scandinavia is always a base for any power openly at war with St. Petersburg. Then there is always a ready and legiti- mate cause of quarrel with Russia. When she is not intriguing in Turkey, she is oppressing the Poles. The Court has within the last ten days abolished the last vestige of autonomy in Poland by placing it, province by province, under the Ministry of the Interior ; and it is always open to Louis Napoleon, as representative of a Power which signed the Treaties of Vienna. as champion of oppressed nationalities, and as elected King of Poland—an incident in his career which he never forgets, if the world does—to inquire why the Czars are perpetrating those oppressions. Inquiries of that kind, addressed to military monarchies, are not peaceful. And, finally, a war for Poland would be popular in France. The sympathy between the Frenchmen of the Seine and the Frenchmen of the Vistula, though sentimental, is not unreal, as is shown by a curious bit of evidence published this week. The Government of France is prosecuting a great benevolent association of workmen nominally for illegal acts, really for growing much too strong. The society numbers 160,000 members, and appears, if acquitted, likely to attract all the workmen in France. Its managers say this is their object, and among the charges against them is one of calling on work- men to take more part in foreign politics, the reason assigned being the disgraceful abandonment of the Poles by the upper classes of Europe. The one serious danger in the way is the uncertainty as to the course Prussia might take, and it is believed in Germany that it was to ascertain Prussian ideas on this point that Prince Jerome has this month visited Berlin. Prussia has rather contradictory interests in the matter. On the one hand, she has no wish to see Russia, with her frontier already so near Berlin, still further aggrandized ; on the other, if Russia is beaten she might be exposed to a combined attack from Austria and France. The Premier, therefore, holds his tongue, and has addressed a circular to his agents in Europe carefully pointing out that Prince Jerome had no mission, but only wished to see for himself how Germany was getting on. The second danger, however, will probably outweigh the first in Prussian minds, and the Emperor therefore hesitates, shrinks, with all his resources, from playing so tremendous a stake. He must, however, we imagine, play one of some kind, if his prestige is not to experience that gradual decay which is so fatal in France, and his preparations are drawing near their completion. In another month the Garde Mobile will be under arms, in two the contingent of 100,000 men will be in bar- racks. More than 300,000 Chassepots have been de- livered, and their production is calculated at 15,000 per week. Marshal Niel has had a clear six months of time and unlimited credits to supply all deficiencies in Army materiel, and the Fleet has been looked to with peculiar care. If ever France was ready to fight, she will be ready at the end of this spring, and the absence of direct provocation matters little to a man who can start any political topic he likes ; can insist, if he means war with Germany, on the text of the Treaty of Prague, still unfulfilled as far as Denmark is concerned ; or lament the lost independence of Poles who fought so heartily and so well in the ranks of the Grande Armee.
We have no wish to insist too strongly on these facts, which have occurred before without being followed by any per- ceptible result. But, often as the cry has been raised in vain, the wolf is 41ways near when France is arming, when Prince Jerome is flitting about, when Poland is seriously mentioned, and when the Finance Minister of a great State like Austria justifies a demand for unprecedented sacrifices by saying that, in the present position of Europe, Austria may be called on to fight suddenly, and if she does, must rely exclusively upon forced paper currency for the expenses of the war. Any ruler of France threatened by popular discontent must be strongly tempted to turn the thoughts of his people abroad, and this ruler has at his disposal an army such as the world. has never seen, armed with a weapon which has no superior.
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