TOPICS OF THE DAY.

THE COMING WINTER.

.AN ominous portent of the coming winter has appeared in the Ministerial evening journal,—an elaborate effort to show that in the economical prospect "there is nothing to justify apprehen- sion, but much to inspire confidence and hope."

The materials of hope collected by the Globe are briefly these. The ascertained results of the harvest at home and abroad promise a moderate price of bread : wheat is now 538. 4d.; at the same period in 1847 it was about the same; in 1846, nearly 130s., and rising ; in 1845, about 58s. ; in 1844, a very abundant year, 458. Nearly every article.of food, butcher's meat excepted, is lower than the average of preceding years ; especially sugar, coffee, and tea. The raw materials of our manufactures are low in price ; stocks are rather larger than the average. "The low prices," we are assured in a passage more cheerful than intelligible, "may be at- tributed in part to diminished use and demand ; but this they tend strongly to correct by offering larger profits to the manu- facturer." It is true that our exports show a monthly deficiency, to France alone, of 600,000/.; but, argues the Globe, as the same cause that stops trade abroad, the European convulsion, sends travellers home and foreigners hither for refuge, our internal trade, it is to be presumed, bas increased ; and the increase of the Excise and Customs revenue shows an increasing consump- tion. The money-market exhibits a very unusual condition-

" The current rate of interest, on good security, cannot be stated at more than from si to 4 per cent. Approved commercial bills are discounted freely at 3 per cent, and even less; and the brokers hesitate to give so much as 2 per cent for money 'at call.' But what were considered good securities in past years are hardly considered so now; as the following comparison will show.

1844. 1846. 1848.

Oct. 25. Oct. 23. Oct. 25.

Bank Stock, 7 per Cent 203 2064 183 Consols 100 95 844

Exchequer Bills 721. prem. 15s. prem. 38s. prem. "Exchequer Bills, in 1844, bore interest at lid. per cent per diem; in 1846, at the same rate; and now bear 2d. and 2id. "In October 1844, the current rate of discount on first-class bills was about the same as it is now. In October 1846, it was slightly higher, but scarcely ex- ceeded 3 per cent. It is therefore obvious that the relation of commercial secur- ities to those of a more permanent nature, in the estimation of capitalists, has been materially altered.

"Railway securities may be regarded as exceptional?'

Our hopeful contemporary winds up with a crescendo-

" With the prices of food and materials of manufacture low, and capital for commercial purposes seeking employment, we may justly expect that the injuries our trade has sustained from the reverses of the last three years will be repaired as rapidly as the political troubles of our neighbours on the Continent will permit; and that the condition of the people will from this time forward be improved. The Irish convulsion is over; and we may trust that if a demand is made upon us this year for aid for her people, the burden will be comparatively light, as the crops appear to be much larger than for several years past,. And finally, it is now evi_ dent that the revenue for the year will be more productive than was anticipated."

Be not deceived: this is not the way to meet the season of dif- ficulty—with representations elaborately delusive. If we need evidence of the difficulties that await us, we have it even in these hopeful illusions; for they will not bear a second glance without showing the rottenness beneath. Let the reader revise them with us. Every beam of light has its deep cast shadow.

Prices of provisions and manufacturing materials are low ; which is good for the consumer, but how for the producer? Coffee, for instance, is "cheap "—anci Ceylon merchants suffer. Sugar is "cheap"; but it has not been made so by the legiti- mate process of greater abundance through diminished cost of production : it is a cheapness enforced under competition with foreign sugar Frown on unequal terms; and if it causes a tem- porary convenience to the consumer, to the British producer it means ruin—to commercial firms it means bankruptcy. We had plenty of that "cheap sugar" a year ago : are we to have more of it this winter?

Again, raw materials are cheap, partly from "diminished use and demand "; and yet they "offer larger profits to the manu- facturer." Larger profits in a declining trade ? And the trade is declining, not only in raw materials, but in manufactured goods. Many of the manufacturers in Lancashire, besides their own proper troubles, have multiplied difficulties by becoming deeply involved in railways. Great exporting houses do not now receive their returns as they do in ordinary years. The export trade is paralyzed for want of purchasers and of confidence on the Con- tinent. Our own information tells us that manufacturers and exporters look to the coming season with alarm. And if tra- vellers and foreigners are driven to this country, do refugees lavish their scanty cash in large store of clothing; or do mer- chants with goods returned upon their hands continue to buy for their own families as they were wont ? No; a great part of the foreign trade is expunged—the British manufacturer has been manufacturing in vain.

Trade checked means diminished employment : the working man has been toiling in vain, for the channel of mutual inter- change between the loom and the plough has been cut off, and he may eat his weft. Numbers will be out of work this winter, and that means pauperism. Nor does it forbode a mere passing trouble. "The injuries our trade has sustained will be repaired as ra- pidly "—as rapidly as what ?—" as rapidly as the political troubles of our Continental neighbours will permit." We believe it. As Mr. O'Connell would have said, "Thank ye for nothing." The difficulty will be over when Europe is quiet again : till that day, checked trade for England—chronic pauperism. " The Irish convulsion is over "—and the prostrate exhaustion follows : food is more plentiful, but the people are poorer and more helpless.

Railway securities are exceptional. We have been cautioned by other writers not to fear too terrible a pressure of railway calls on account of the 130,000,0001. outstanding : bV ttilway calls there will be—that is, more private insolvency ; railway companies will largely suspend the construction tional lines—more labour out of work. But these stern ideisdiblid'; are rendered necessary by the excessive depreciation of railway property—more insolvency among shareholders.

The condition of the money-market is unusual : money is re- dundant, yet business is slack in the lack of confidence, people are alike reluctant to borrow or to invest.

A proper spirit for a time of straitenel means is gaining ground, and families are driven to habits of stricter parsimony ; that is, diminished consumption—more bankruptcy for retail tra- ders.

The chill season, then, comes on with every prospect of com- merce stagnant, our manufacturing population in want, Ireland begging at her utmost, railways swallowing up money and dis- gorging less, economy itself lending a hand to tighten the screw, and trade thoroughly frozen by protracted panic. "Free trade!" cries the Protectionist: "behold its consequences." No ;—behold the consequences of revolution, of bungling senti- mentalism, and overtrading. It is free trade that gives the only support we have in the trouble, a guarantee of bread at moderate rates ; free trade that offers one channel for further help, in the commerce between manufacturing England and food-growing countries.

However caused, whether by calamities abroad or errors of our own, there are the difficulties—there the sullen lightnings that begin to play in the dark cloud of coming winter. But where there are forethought, courage, and diligence, there are hope and safety. Knowing our dangers, we are not so helpless but what we can meet them. Let us then not avert our look, but fix it upon them ; plant our feet firmly, hold by the wheel, and trust a steady eye, a bold heart, and a stout active arm, to meet every breaker as it strikes us with the English habit of surmounting. There are cures for every ill—every danger has its own expe- dient; even those calamities we cannot avert we can mitigate. The certainty of pauperism in our densely-peopled districts will spur Sir George Grey and Mr. Charles Buller to be ready with measures of precaution—to extend relief with the wisest economy and the safest checks. Local bodies will stand ready to aid in carrying out an effective administration of relief mea- sures; and it will be well to begin in some way the enforce- ment of the needful distinction between the truly destitute and the vagrant—the robber of the destitute. It is to be done and it ought to be done when every penny will be needed for the hun- and naked. Ireland's demand will be foreseen by Lord

hun-

gry and his colleagues in Whitehall ; her necessities will be met more wisely for the experience of the past. The railway world will be aided in arranging its difficulties at the least ex- pense of mischief. If employment can be stimulated healthfully, so much the better. Already, we see, it is reported that the Court is to antedate its "season," and to begin next month : every little helps. It is too late to save the fallen merchants of 1847-8, too soon to restore British commerce by pacifying Eu- rope; but our Ministers will see that the paths of our trade are kept open throughout the world ; they will consider what great measures can serve both Colonies and Mother-country ; and they will cultivate traffic with those countries that offer the op- portunities of peace and the profit of appropriate exchanges. In all respects, Government will seek by a firm, simple, direct, and steadfast policy, to impart that confidence which springs from seeing that public affairs are guided with honesty and power. We presume that all these things will be done, because we cannot conceive that any set of public men would dare to face the coming winter unless they were strengthened by wise and vigorous councils. To great countries the time of great difficulty is the time when great measures have their beginning : we know that the coming winter will put England to her mettle, and know therefore that she must be guided by no timid or unskilful Mi- nister.