There is no secret about the marked improvement of the
shipping situation in the Atlantic. Mr. Alexander has affirmed it in general terms, into which a good deal can be read, and Col. Knox, the United States Secretary of the Navy, has said that the American naval patrols, which presumably now range all the way to Iceland, so far from having fired a shot, have never sighted a German raider nor a German submarine. What does this mean? Is it a temporary lull, while a new U-boat wave is preparing? Or is the Battle of the Atlantic won? To leap to the conclusion that it is would be folly. False optimism must be avoided at all costs. But we know from the First Lord of the Admiralty that while the sinkings of merchant shipping have been diminishing the destruction of U-boats has been increasing. And here, as with the Luftwaffe, the wastage of trained crews may be decisive. But it is likely enough also that, as the Prime Minister hinted on Sunday night, Hitler is not anxious for war with the United States, and U-boat activity while American patrols are about would be as likely to precipitate that as anything. Whatever the explanation— and there is no doubt more than one—the improvement in the situation may be accepted as a fact, and a fact that is highly encouraging.
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