Political Commentary

Madam President?

John Grigg

In the last days of his presidency Gerald Ford, assuming the improbable role of a seer, predicted that by 1992 a woman would be nominated for vice-president and would then in due course succeed a president who would 'pass away in office.' Was he perhaps thinking of the woman whom he nearly chose as his own vicepresidential running mate last year—Anne L. Armstrong, at present US ambassador at the Court of St James's?

Five former American envoys to this country have become presidents of the United States—John Adams, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin van Buren and James Buchanan—but Mrs Armstrong would be the first for well over a hundred years. She is anyway the first woman to be ambassador here, and it is now open to her to become the first to be elected to, or even nominated for, the US presidency or vice-presidency.

Her short stint here cannot have done her reputation any harm. In less than a year she has made a remarkable impact. Her only previous visit was in 1949, when she came for a few weeks with college friends after graduation from Vassar (shades of The Group) and spent most of her time in London. But unfamiliarity seems not to have cramped her style in the slightest. She has behaved as though she felt completely at home here, has travelled to many parts of the country and has become, to millions, a household name.

Soon after presenting her credentials she went to Northern Ireland, and the mere fact of going was proof of imagination, courage and flair, to which must be added the sensitive understanding which her remarks there showed. These are all qualities which are precious in a national leader. But -has she The other qualities and qualifications necessary for one who may aspire to the most important political job in the world ?, She is certainly ambitious—for herself and for her sex. It is her clearly-stated view that there should be more and more women in top governmental positions. During the second Nixon administration she served as counsellor to the President, maintaining liaison between the White House and the Republican National Committee, of which in 1971 she had become the first woman co-chairman.

In addition to her political work she has had business interests, as a di-rector of American Express, Union Carbide, International Harvester and other firms. Rich herself, she is married to a rich Texas rancher. (They have five children, including twins—the latter a point in common with Mrs Thatcher.) She is tough. For all her charm, one would not wish to get on the wrong side of her. She has a sharp mind and does her homework, reading briefs carefully and grasping the essential points. Her capacity for dealing with people, individually and in groups, is all that a campaign manager could desire.

Though Texan by marriage and present domicile, she is by birth a New Orleans girl. Her middle name is Legendre, and her father was a coffee importer from a wellknown Creole family. This Deep South background could be a disadvantage to her in any attempt to cobble together a national majority. She might have some difficulty in winning Negro votes, though if a white Democrat from Georgia has been able to win them there is some hope for a white Republican from Louisiana.

Her French origins have not bequeathed to her a mastery of the French language, though she can speak it a little. Yet she has one linguistic qualification most unusual in an American politician, the ability to speak fluent Spanish (partly due to the fact that her husband's ranch is near the Mexican border). This could be a major asset to her, as president or vice-president, in her relations with Latin America and old Spain.

Perhaps the most serious objection to her may be that she was in the White House during the period of the Watergate coverup. This may be too easily exploitable as evidence of guilt by association. Though her candid manner belies any real involvement in the furtive shifts and subterfuges of Nixon's last phase, it is preferable not to have even imaginary mud on the chariot wheels of a would-be.president.

Moreover, her only defence against the charge of guilty knowledge is that she was naive—a characteristic to which, on other grounds, no politician would wish to lay claim. But Mrs Armstrong's personality is such that she has a good chance of being generally credited with innocence without being regarded as dangerously innocent.

Is her sex a handicap? In one sense it obviously must be, because with many people there is a natural conservative reluctance to do anything for the first time. But there is probably less prejudice today against the idea of a woman president than there was in 1960 against the idea of a Roman Catholic president, And the thought of a woman vice-president might be even more tolerable.

But Mrs Armstrong is not yet equipped to run. In this century only Wendell Willkie (apart from the special case of Eisenhower) has run for the presidency without having previously been a candidate for elective pub

tic office at the federal or state level. It is pretty clear, therefore, that Mrs Armstrong will have to run for one or other house of Congress, or for the governorship of Texas —and that she will have to make a very impressive showing in the contest—if she wishes to be taken seriously as a possible Republican standard-bearer for 1980 or 1984. (In running for Congress or for a state governorship she would be creating no precedent. The Americans are already quire used to women governors, senators and Congressmen.)

She has age on her side, being not yet fifty. But politics is a remorseless game and she will have no time to lose when she returns home, as she will, presumablY, shortly be doing. Her resignation has been sent in and Mr Carter's appointment of a successor is likely at any moment.

She may still be undecided whether or not to take the 'plunge. When she married, her husband had no idea that he was marrying a future politician. During her time in London he has been with her, doing ad official .job of his own and also helping her to entertain. There has, therefore, been nr) conflict between the duties of ambassador and wife; rather the contrary. But would it be the same if she became a full-time politician, more especially one with a nation-wide constituency and world-wide power? She promised her family that she would not run for elective public office so long as the children were under age. But the youngest is now nineteen, and it is a fair guess that she will soon be released from her pledge. We may then live to witness the completion of an intriguing American double—an Armstrong first man on the Moon, and an Armstrong first woman in the White House.

While on the subject of lady politicians, I must offer a cautious salute to Indira Gandhi, and an unqualified salute 10 Shirley Williams. Mrs Gandhi's volte-face may be no more than a move to obtain plebiscitarian endorsement of her dictatorship, or it may represent a genuine desire to return to proper democratic government. Knowing her, would hope that the second interpretation will turn out to be true, because it is hard to believe that she could wish to destroy the freedom that her farnilY has done so much to create. Mrs Williams's attack on the Trotskyist threat to democratic socialism was both brave and authoritative. She is no lightweight with an obsession about reds under the bed, but a woman of knowledge wh° thinks hard and talks straight. Only three weeks ago I was expressing in this colUnln the hope that a Labour moderate with as much ability as Mr Berm would state,thef case against indiscriminate 'toleration ° revolutionaries within the party organ°. lion, while he was deploying his gifts ori their behalf. Now Mrs Williams has dohe just that, and all democrats—not merelY social democrats—have reason to rejoice.