Six Weeks to Go?
THE COMMONWEALTH
By MALCOLM RUTHERFORD
PHE Commonwealth appears to be breaking up 1 over the Rhodesia issue surprisingly quietly. For a body that has, at least in its present form, perhaps scarcely six weeks to live, there is a remarkable lack of concern.
The issue, of course, is Zambia, more even than it is Rhodesia; the venue the Common- wealth Prime Ministers' Conference in London from September 6 to 13. At this meeting the Commonwealth Sanctions Committee, formed at the last Commonwealth Conference in Lagos, is due to present its considered report on how economic sanctions against Rhodesia are work- ing. Though much is being done in Whitehall at the moment to keep the report as objective as possible, it is feared that the British sanctions policy will be roundly condemned as a failure. And already, whatever happens in the next six weeks, it seems that Zambia has gone too far in her determination to leave the Common- wealth on this issue for her easily to change her mind.
There is no doubt that what sparked off Presi- dent Kaunda's current anger against Britain was the British decision to hold talks with representa- tives of the Smith regime, a piece of news which Dr Kaunda apparently heard for the first time on the wireless. But Zambia's departure was always likely the moment Mr Wilson had failed to fulfil his promise that Mr Smith and his colleagues would be toppled 'within weeks rather than months.' After that, the time was bound to come when Dr Kaunda could not with honour (and an eye on his party militants) continue to .support a British government which appeared determined to settle the issue at its own pace and in its own way. The 'talks about talks' merely set the seal, and the British reluc- tance to divulge anything of what was discussed inflamed Zambia's resentment still further. It was suspected, rightly and naturally, that the rebel Ian Smith will be the instrument of any settle- ment that is reached.
It was realised that however much the British may talk about sticking to the six principles, principles remain vague until they are put into practice and that the six principles laid down by Britain could allow minority rule to con- tinue in Rhodesia for a very long time to come. Zambia and Britain, in fact, were going for en- tirely different things and the differences in their aims could not be papered over indefinitely.
Besides this, the arguments about the amount of contingency aid to Zambia are much less im- portant. Britain, indeed, has already been notably generous; she is not quibbling even now so much over the amount, as over Zambia's demand for a blank cheque. Zambia is asking for something like the promise of a long-term development programme, while Britain does not want to promise anything beyond the end of the year, when the situation will be reviewed —that is, by which time a settlement may have been reached with Mr Smith. It is hard to think that Zambia is demanding this as part of the sanctions programme, which she no longer be- lieves in, but as a challenge to Britain to come into the open and say what she is really trying to achieve in Rhodesia. -
Yet it is the manner of Zambia's going which is curious. Dr Kaunda is already clearly cutting the links, but apparently believes both that the country would be able to return to the Common-
wealth later and that Britain will continue her aid. As for the first assumption, it may be doubted whether there will be a Commonwealth in being for Zambia to return to, at least of the kind to which she would like to belong. And as for the second, there is certainly very little disposition in London at the moment to keep aid going, and certainly to keep it going at the present rate would be to suggest to other mem- bers that they might just as well follow Zambia out. Things may look different at the Overseas Development Ministry, but in this time of financial crisis the ODM is hardly in a strong position. Nor has it passed without comment that several of the people who are encouraging Zambia to demand British money are economic advisers whose salaries are partly paid by this very ministry. Since one recent request was for a £2 million a month food subsidy, it can be imagined that official sympathy with Zambia is running low.
The point about losing British aid (contingency aid for the sanctions could, of course, continue) has yet to be put, and no doubt it can be put very forcibly. But for Zambia it is an issue of principle and it is doubtful if she will allow herself publicly to appear to have been bought. (A little horse-trading in which she bargains the retention of British aid against the threat of seeking it elsewhere is another matter.) Zambia, it seems, will go in spite of everything. For the heart of the matter is not whether sanctions are working or not, it is that Britain is seeking a political settlement quite unacceptable to Zambia. Britain is seeking, in fact, something not very different from the 1961 constitution, only with safeguards. And now the talks about
talks are under way, a decision has been taken that, in the last resort, it is more important to settle the Rhodesia problem in our own way than to keep Zambia in the Commonwealth.
Suggestions that Mr Wilson had to reach this settlement before September so that he could present the Commonwealth Prime Ministers with a fait accompli were always ill-judged. In reality, he must have known that it is far better to get the conference out of the way first and avoid such an embarrassing high-level confrontation— perhaps, after all, the last of its kind.
Possibly, of course, the settlement will never be reached at all, but the chances are that it will. If it is calculated that sanctions will have an increasing effect on Rhodesia throughout this year, it must also be conceded that if there is no settlement imminent in 1967, third coun- tries will quickly tire of the sanctions programme and begin to resume their former trade. Britain therefore must feel strongly tempted to settle in the next nine months or so, rather than risk not settling at all It is evident that a settlement of this kind is the logical outcome of the original British de- cision not to use force, though it may not have seemed so to ministers at the time. How far they have come round to it, however, how far attitudes to the Commonwealth and to Britain's position in Southern Africa in particular, have been changing is evident in the studied resigna- tion with which Zambia's probable departure is accepted. Yet Zambia's example would surely be followed by other African members; it is hard to see the Asians staying after that; and cer- tainly no British Prime Minister could claim again that a body which allowed its African members to depart for the sake of restoring legal minority rule in Rhodesia was a uniquely multi- racial affair.
The Commonwealth, in short, is breaking up over Rhodesia after all, but the mourners are staying quiet.
'The fact that we have a job to do . . . to put the country on a strong foundation is no reason why we should not enjoy ourselves.'—Mr Wilson at the Cavern Club, Liverpool, last Saturday.
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