Begin's fury

AvnerY

Tel Aviv \'hat is happening to Mr Begin? The question is being asked in Israel these days not

'Yin the Knesset and party caucuses; it is

,the main topic in coffee shops, coffee °teaks, and the Friday night house parties which are the centres of Israel's social life asr.ld where public opinion is being formed.

Ince last Wednesday, when most Israelis

saw Mr Begin on TV addressing the Knesse), this question has left the realm of polities and invaded popular medicine and even L'sYchiatry. Leading members of the Labour ,;_artY have asked publicly, at a meeting of "le Party leadership, whether Mr Begin is 111. etheany and/or psychologically fit to con in office. In the streets, the question is ueing asked more rudely: is he off his rocker?

.NIr Begin's admirers, who are probably !nil the majority deny these allegations `ervently. In their eyes, Begin has returned .his old fighting form. His personal physician, for good measure, added that he had never seen Mr Begin in better condition since his last heart attack more than a year ag0.

of

this turbulence was caused by a series oisPeeches by Mr Begin in Parliament and outside. In these he disclosed that King pussein has asked to meet Mr Peres, the cadet of the Labour Party, in London, a request turned down by Mr Begin. This dise,losure certainly served no useful purpose. to a conversation with Knesset members, Qpverheard by journalists, he disclosed that eres had visited Morocco, calling this ec.ountry disparagingly 'Morocco '31nnorocco — a slip of the tongue he had to

officially the next day to prevent turther damage to Israel's relations with the 'nest moderate of Arab states. When some

pointed out to him that journalists had 'eard what he said, he used a most exprebssive Russian profanity causing the staid ,,Qvur to print for the first time in its history !tie explicit word for the male sexual organ lo Russian and Hebrew on its first page. On rhe Knesset podium he illustrated the idea °f 'territorial compromise', which is anathema to him, by provocatively tearing a Piece of paper into two — a dramatic gesture, bringing to mind torn peace agreements. These and other blunders, followed with rapt attention by the TV cameras, have changed Mr Begin's image practically overnight. Since joining the Government fc.it the first time, on the eve of the 1967 Slx-Day War. Mr Begin has taken great Pains to gain respectability and to obliterate his former image as an irresponsible fanatic and unbridled demagogue. At that time, he surprised his new colleagues by his loyal and

moderate conduct. During the last elections he was portrayed by his campaign manager, Ezer Weizman, as a happy family man, smil ing at his grandchildren, a quiet, elder statesman waiting to take over from dis credited party hacks. During his first months in office he surprised even his severest opponents by his moderation and general air of goodnaturedness, greeting even his opponents with courtesy. His masterly behaviour while playing host to Sadat in Jerusalem brought his popularity to its zenith.

All this has been shattered — a fact which may have far-reaching, if not immediate, political consequences. Why did it happen? Many theories have been advanced. If one discards medical or psychiatric causes, for which there exists no proof, one must assume that Mr Begin is dominated by severe anxieties and frustrations. Overshadowing everything must be the worry about his health. After at least one severe heart attack (which reliable sources believe was his second), the doubt about his future ability to remain in office must exercise a permanent pressure on his state of mind. Having no trusted heir to succeed him must aggravate the situation.

His frustrations have been growing. Mr Sadat, who embraced him so warmly only nine months ago, speaks about him disparagingly and refuses to meet him. Ezer Weizman, whom Begin now considers as a growing rival, has again been warmly received by the Egyptian President, who also met Mr Peres, the leader of the beaten party. Mr Begin feels himself rejected and excluded, and is over-reacting in a way reminiscent of a cornered animal. He revealed his state of mind when claiming the other day that everybody — from Egypt to the Pacific Ocean — wants to force him out of office.

There may be an even more profound reason for his aggressiveness: Mr Begin lives in a reality of his own. He has always been totally convinced of the justice of his position. In this he was confirmed by his reception by President Carter, and by Mr Sadat's visit. He seems to have been sincerely convinced that his ideas would bring peace and that his so-called 'peace plan' was the epitome of generosity and statesmanship. But something has gone wrong. Reality has left him behind. His concepts are not sustained by events. He may be trying to cheat himself by the bouts of euphoria which baffle observers but in moments of depression he blames conspiracies, and perhaps anti-semitism, for the failure of his policies. No one can prophesy how Mr Begin's state of mind and health will influence developments. However, some political trends are beginning to crystallise. The Labour Party has received a dramatic boost. Only a month ago it was totally discredited, disoriented and disjointed. Its shattering defeat at the polls had had no salutary effects. Morale was low. Both Mr Peres and Mr Rabin, who continue to detest each other, tried to outflank Mr Begin from the right side, attacking him for his readiness to give back Sinai, arguing that his plan for administrative autonomy for Arabs in the West Bank will produce a Palestinian state. But very few people in Israel remember twenty-nine years of Labour rule with nostalgia. Mr Peres's total lack of charisma made matters worse.

Now Mr Peres has been catapulted into prominence especially since he met President Sadat. He has assumed statesmanlike proportions, and the Labour Party has, suddenly, found a valid platform to stand on. The slogan of 'territorial concessions' has not produced peace in the past — as Mr Begin points out — but it seems to many that it can at least get the Sadat initiative rolling again. With a newfound aggressiveness, the Labour Party has become again a force to reckon with.

Even more interesting is the emergence of Mr Ezer Weizman. He has always been popular, but in the past he has been considered more of an enfant terrible than a possible Prime Minister. Since the Sadat visit, Weizman has grown in stature — both

as a personality and as a public hero. His visits to Egypt have had a profound impact on the ideas of the former super-hawk, perhaps reviving childhood memories of his famous uncle, Chaim Weizman, who met Emir Feisal sixty years ago. His ideas are moving towards a concept of Middle Eastern cooperation, making for flexibility even on the issue of the West Bank. As a potential leader of the moderate forces in Israel, Weizman has a greater appeal than Peres—with whom, by the way, he has main tamed good relations since the days when he was Commander of the air force, and Peres Director General of the Ministry of Defence.

Where is all this leading to? No one quite knows. Mr Begin is far from finished. As a politician, it is dangerous to underrate him. He may still be able to get rid of a rather impetuous Mr Weizman and deal a blow to the Labour Party. But imponderable forces are at work. Public opinion is shifting. Any unforeseen event may shatter the government, turning Mr Weizman into a leader of a new coalition — if the Likud block remains intact without Mr Begin — or turning the reins of government over to Mr Peres, if the Likud splits. This may still be a long way off. It may be far from probable. But, as from this week, the possibility is certainly there.