THE CHANCES OF ITALY.
TEE cause of Italy does not advance, and the momentary pause seems to suggest, even to Liberals, the notion of retrogression. We hear it said on every side, that since the death of Cavour Italian affairs have been going wrong, that the cause is losing its nobleness amid personal claims and Court caprices, that the kingdom is still supported only by the favour of the West, and that were Austria to advance, Italy must again throw herself at the feet of France, or recede once more into a mere "geo- graphical expression." Earl Russell is pronounced wise because he pleaded for dualism, and even the Times, on this point consistently and unmistakably liberal, fears the re- newed activity of Garibaldi, and a new appeal to the Ilevolution. Such reasonera omit, we believe, some of the main elements in the question, forget that the torrent does not cease to roll because its surface is covered with filth, fail to reckon on the vitality which all things once established acquire. We propose to set out, as fairly as is possible for those who love Italy the difficulties which beset her, and the overwhelming reasons for confidence in her fate. The difficulties are many and great, and some of them are unfortunately moral. Italy has no place in the world, except as a sixth great Power, and she is not yet prepared to as- sume the position essential to her security. Had Cavour lived, he with his aristocratic will, and more than Jacobin vigour, supported by the entire middle class, and followed, though not loved, by the Reds, would long ere this have placed the Peninsula beyond the reach of attack. Every nerve would have been devoted to organization, the army brought up to half a million of soldiers, the nation turned into riflemen, and Naples either conciliated or subjugated once and for all. Ricasoli, with a will like his own, could never manage the Rome office, and was compelled to leave the army to men who, however able, are still soldiers of an old monarchy, and not of a revolution. Italy, therefore, is not yet the equal of France, and is compelled either to wait or lean on a stronger power. The latter policy has been preferred, the King's passions have diminished his regal pride, and R.attazzi, though we believe heartily, hotly Italian, still stands prepared to guide the ship in deference to the signals made by Louis Napoleon. Necessarily this offends the Italians, and the concert between the dynasty and the Parliament, Italy and her rulers, the Reds and those who postpone all but freedom to unity, is for the hour impaired. This is a source of weakness all the more lamentable, because Italy needs a taxation only a willing Parlia- ment is able or disposed to exact. The Government wants money still. Rattazzi is an able economist, but even he will scarcely be able, if the people are to be armed, to abstain from another loan, a measure which must be supported by new and searching taxation. He has not the confidence of the majority, and the King, great IN his name still is, cannot hope either to reign alone, or' preserving his Parliament, to dictate whom that Parliament shall support. Then, the ex- ternal work of unification advances but slowly on. Rica- soli's plan of making Italy politically a Protestant State would have succeeded or failed without Napoleon; but Rat- tazzi, without that plan, is compelled to lean on an ally who cannot bear to withdraw from Rome. No man can tell what resolves are rising to fever heat within that dreamy brain ; but, unless Napoleon will move, Rattazzi is as far from Rome as if the Revolution had never occurred, and without Rome there is no unity. The talk of selecting another capital, or of governing from Turin, is talk merely, and of the feeblest kind. Governments cannot extinguish history, and Italy, a nest of municipalitiers, can have but one Queen city—the Rome before which all dynasties and nationalities, however antique, are young. The Southern provinces, therefore, severed from the North by the ecclesiastical capital, are rest- less and discontented, dream still of restorations, and labour under that sense of the temporary character of all arrange- ments which is so fatal to their success. Naples takes fifty thousand men merely to keep it in order, and Sicily is not kept. Francis of Bourbon still finds allies, Mgr. de Merode still secures agents, and even La Marmora, worn out with work, confesses that he is at war. Then, though life and property are as secure as in France, the administration is, for many purposes, exceedingly weak. The country dislikes the bureaucracy, and the bureaucracy- is centralized, till the "demon of writing" has invaded. the State, and government has become an affair of reports. It is not a strong authority which meets brigandage like that of Bologna by exceptional means, which sends special officers to reduce the Tuscan por- ters to order, or which fails to put down, through the police, the terrible demoralization of Naples. Then there are opi- nions. The Reds are daily growing more active, and Gari- baldi, whose appearance always betokens movement, is arm- ing the youth of Italy. He appeals to the Revolution, and he may be successful, but the Italian cause as yet has appealed to Europe, and he cannot have both allies. The party of action, moreover, is also the party which, in the hour of extremity, must find the volunteers, and the Government which suppresses it suppresses its own most powerful support. It breaks its sword lest it wound a friend. The Government therefore, alarmed at the risk of drawina° all Europe upon the Peninsula, is almost as much alarmed at the idea of sup- pressing the committees, from whose inflated phases strong Governments recoil in disgust. It has, as it were, to perform an all but impossible task, to meet the permanent menace of Austria, yet remain independent of the only ally whom Austria fears, to keep friends with Louis Napoleon, yet not break with the revolution Louis Napoleon dreads, to keep down Naples, yet preserve the freedom of Neapolitans, to defy and destroy the power of the Papacy in the midst of a people who, when they believe at all, hold the Pope the Vicar of Christ. And the minister who has to perform this task is a man raised by a Court intrigue, suspected by Parliament of " Piedmontese " tendencies, and by the people of supple- ness to France, with no love for the Reds who are impracti- cable, or for the Conservatives who hate France, with no foreign policy he can avow, and no strength in himself, except such talent for administration as belongs to many an able Prefect. Who can wonder that many who are devoted to Italy still mistake the spots on the son for the indications of coming night ? Such will not, we believe, be the view of those who can trace the current which runs under all the waifs on its sur- face, and who can perceive that in Italy, as in France, the Revolution is a force of itself, which moves, though those whom it carries are quarrelling for the control. There never were smaller men than those who led and succeeded the Mountain, but they pulverized the ancient regime as the ablest could not have done. All this time, while the King yields to personal likings, and his favourites yield to France, and France delays unification, and the chiefs all bicker and doubt, Italy is enjoying liberty. Twenty millions of people are getting strong in the fresh air of freedom. The people are learning their political primer, are being exercised in elections, and juries, and volunteer corps, and the thousand careers which the removal of the stone from the tomb has opened to courage and brain. Into a thou- sand villages which know nothing of intrigues at Turin the Revolution has poured a new life, is developing new abilities, and is building up deep and broad the determina- tion that, come what may, the past shall never return. The Roman question waits, but with every hour that passes the hatred to Rome grows strong. The Neapolitan question halts, but every hour builds up new interests on the founda- tion of unity, makes the work of disjunction more embar- rassing. There is no change in the popular will. In Northern Italy, Federalism is a mere dream of the past, interesting to gossips and }Political historians. The ablest and noblest strive to be elected to the united Parliament. The "golden youth" are swarming into the army. Discontent, as common as in England, as in England also limits itself to its causes, with- out seeking to remodel the constitution which allows it such free expression. Even in Naples, where we hear so much of dis- like for the Italian cause, thirty-six thousand conscripts have gone to the North, and communes have voted men in excess of the legal demand. Neapolitans hate new taxes, but they are paying the ten per cent. which is to make Italy free. The country is harassed by brigands, but the dangers of travelling in the Basilicata no more imply reaction than the danger of passing Hounslow Heath implied popular love for the Stuarts. The priests, we are told, are all Powerful; but the Pope summons the bishops to Rome, and the bishops dare not go, for this people which loves them so much will turn them out of their sees. The Reds are prevail- ing," but the men who declare it, declare also that the King himself changed his Ministry, and that the danger of Italy lies in an over-decided repression. Garibaldi is getting active, but his activity means that arming of the people which is essential to the independence which the English opponents of Italy ask first of all at her bands. French influence is far too strong ; but in 1860 it was strong enough to compel Cavour to surrender Nice and Savoy, and in 1862 it can barely keep Rattazzi in partial power, and -could not preserve any Ministry which ceded Sardinia from the summary vengeance of Parliament. The" administration is weak," but travellers say that Italy was never so safe ; that save in the Papal States, and the mountains, a traveller may pass undespoiled, except by the innkeepers, unquestioned, except by the village politicians. The brigands are every- where flying for their lives, terrorism in Bologna, however ended, is still at an end, and as the new police spreads through the counties the " rowdyism " which follows political tumult slinks back to the dens where it may be discovered, even in England. The Government, so far from neglecting the army, has only wasted re- sources in striving to make it too perfect, and Italy to-day, exclusive of the mobilized guard, exclusive of the army of the South, exclusive of the tried volunteers, and exclusive of the levy ex mane which the cities at least would obey, has for next war two hundred and sixty thousand regulars, organized by La Marmora, and an- nealed in the terrible Piedmontese discipline, with Cialdini to lead them, the second-best artillery in Europe for their support, and five millions of men for a reserve. That army cannot fiaht France, but with Hungary behind, a hostile province For her battle-ground, and the Sclavonians half in 'doubt, Austria will do well to pause ere she tries single- handed to advance from the Quadrilateral. The navy has grown so strong, that Austrians themselves proclaim open rivalry hopeless, a useless addition to an unmanageable 'deficit. We are told of pecuniary difficulties, and that Italian Fives are selling at 67. What is the market price of Aus- trian Sixes ? or why should Italy, almost without a debt, suc- cumb to difficulties under which Austria, crushed with debt, is still believed to be strong ? Parliament has never hesitated to vote the taxes required, and no one affirms they are not obtained. Finally, there is the Emperor, now for the fiftieth time supposed to be hostile to Italy, and favourable to Fe- deration. When in 1860, the Emperor flushed with victories gained by himself, with all the power of France, and for this purpose all the power of Austria at his disposal, imposed dis- union on Italy, and was defied, he remained immovable. What is this new strength which should now, when the build- ing is up, and the walls only required to settle, enable him to unbuild the edifice erected in his despite ? Is it M. Fould's report ?
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