Argentina's bleak future

Maxi Gainza

'The Argentina you speak of no longer I exists,' a senior Argentinian diplomat and political hopeful for the forthcoming general elections told me in his elegant Buenos Aires flat. He was dismayed that I could still harbour the illusion of our coun- try being 'European' and in league with the West.

A year ago he would have shared that world view with me. I pointed to the profu- sion of British, French and Spanish titles in his well-stocked library; but this urbane, liberal former minister brushed the implica- tion aside. 'All that is our inheritance, but let's face reality: the Europeans have no further need of us. They close their doors on our products and treat us with contempt — as do the Americans. We delude ourselves in thinking that we are of the slightest consequence to the NATO allies. The Malvinas war showed this all too pain- fully. We are, whether you like it or not, a Third World nation.'

Returning home for the first time since the war, little until that moment seemed to

have changed. Buenos Aires remains a bustling, cosmopolitan city of fine, if derivative, buildings and leafy parks; of daredevil drivers and lovely women dressed to kill. At lunchtime the Calle Florida pull- ed the usual crowds of shoppers and office workers — a unique ethnic mix drawn from the four corners of Europe, with shades of the Middle East, a streak of Indian blood here and there, and not one black. The outward marks of the war were largely confined to the street names. The most conspicuously British, such as Avenida Canning and Calle Londres, have been stencilled over by individual rather than official initiative with 2 de Abril (the date of the Argentinian invasion) and Crucero General Belgrano. Canning's bust, however, remains unmolested in the Plaza Retiro, as does the scaled-down version of Big Ben which dominates the square and is the clearest reminder of the days when, in the name of trade and railways, Argentina became little short of an unofficial British protectorate. Even today you can stay at the Claridge, shop at Harrods, lunch in the London Grill, play golf at the Hurlingham Club and take the train out to the estancia in Hudson, Wheelwright or Wilde.

Nevertheless, my host's late conversion 'They are all the rage — high-rise burrows.' The Spectator 2 April 196 to Thirdworldism alerted me to the fan; suddenly self-evident beneath the facade normality, that a disturbing change 113" taken place. For all their rude heah,li; friendly manner and frenzied activity, Argentinians seem to have succumbed te' general state of listlessness, as if a vital eirj ment of will-power, not to say of hope, deserted them. They busy themselves all right, but 1091 no real sense of purpose. They speak nothing but the return of democracY, they show little interest in taking an act part in the run-up to the general elect Either they do not believe it will happen' 11 else they fear that their choice of parties w!, be limited to those which have previ0u9'1 struck a deal with the two main powers °de the land — the military and the unions. As too often in the past, this' make a mockery of constitutional gover: ment. Likewise, the Argentinians lament (0e; the'state of their national economy. WitAil 200 per cent annual rate of inflation an ire foreign debt almost the size of the GNP, the foreseeable future looks hart' less. But such are the inflatiorlar• safeguards built into the financial sYste,till't and the widespread faith that a few bunift„ , harvests will always bail the country v."e that few register alarm. 'War or no war',;ie were in for this mess,' a prominent ea",,,• auctioneer admitted to me, having Ifirlt,eir. plained how everyone in business haa tually stopped paying his bills. Although 3 face showed signs of overwork beneallif deep suntan, his manner was not that nt,,, man at tether's end. 'We will pull throug",e he added. 'Even in the present debacle thettle is a certain order and continuitY in t system.' So why panic? So why hoPe? Even if Argentinians are wont to Pot crises in their stride, and even if the Presto, one is not directly attributable to the devil. there is something in their current Ica may-care attitude that points to 3 mat wound which could only result froru unhappy event. Of the actual mintivil defeat they speak with surprising objeetsce ty. 'Our conscript army hadn't a chats,' against seasoned British professiouat it they say. Likewise, they now admit th,nect, was reckless to invade. They rei,i0 however, the standard British accusa'res, that it was an act of unprovoked agg,tiey sion. The British provoked then'', argue, as the mighty provoke the Wog with indifference. The Argentinian rea'tite of the Franks report confirms thera I MC view that the British would never f the negotiated the transfer of sovereigntY°, era islands in the absence of an jinni° /It Argentinian threat — just as they would °- negotiate under it. a 0111 'The British took us for a ride, that own military duped us into believing 010. ar o we could beat them on the islands, j

' a P

playing friend of mine — once PoPu' the fields of Windsor and CowdraY med it up for me. It is the fact of been made fools of both by the Britiksille:10 by their own government tht ra

an them, all the more so as they see Britain again in control of a piece of territory which every Argentinian regards as his by right and British only by force. 'I don't want to sit and wait now for the British to hand over the islands because they are too expen- sive to defend.' he added. '1 want us to take back what is ours.'

At present the Argentinians are busy set- tling accounts with the military; but come elections and the return of a passably democratic government, they will no doubt turn their minds to getting even with the British. Given that the next government is bound to be either Peronist or radical, both of which factions have traditionally based their foreign policy on the anti-British theme, the chances are that Britain will find Argentina's elected leaders even less accom- modating than the discredited Junta on the Falklands-Malvinas dispute. They will have the legitimacy, as well as the entire nation's support, to seize on the issue with a vengeance.

The esiancia lies some two hundred miles south-west of Buenos Aires. All around its deeply-shaded park stretches the 'sea of grass, grass and more grass' which haunted the imagination of Cunningham Graham, amongst other 19th-century British travellers.

We start riding at dawn so as to be back before the midday heat, and head towards a herd of cattle which needs driving to fresh pastures. The animals are of British stock, originally brought into Argentina by my host's great-grandfather and now multi- plied in their millions throughout the coun- try. We round them by a windmill which bears the faded marks of a Birmingham manufacturer. Shades of the British past linger everywhere — even in the hard- wearing 'Shanks' lavatory bowls back on the farm.

My horse is an alert bay criollo with a delightful canter, astonishing bursts of speed and the knack of helping the rider open and shut gates from the saddle — the ideal workhorse. On his back I seem to push the flat horizon at least another mile. We take our bearings first from a faraway windmill, and then by the dark silhouettes of man-planted woods and spinneys spread out in the distance like a fleet at anchor. Thick banks of tiny mauve flowers dapple the plain, and as we gallop through them the air freshens with a strong smell of pep- permint.

For all the green, empty vastness of the Argentinian pampas the overwhelming presence is that of the sky. It is a land of birds. Black-necked swans and shocking- pink flamingoes mingle with ducks and geese in rush-covered ponds. Snow-white egrets — blown all the way across from Africa — stalk among the cattle taking discreet pecks at their hides in search of bugs. Owls hop along fence posts, keeping us at a prudent distance. Hawks wheel and swoop, driving off the crows; while the heavy, high-soaring vultures play the ther- mals in their lazy quest for food. The in- evitable grey, white and black teros — the most Argentinian of birds — make slicing passes at us to decoy us from their nests ly- ing on open ground.

At sunset, though, the feeling of well- being derived from the day's exercise soon gives way to melancholia. Darwin, reflec- ting upon the awesome stillness of the Argentinian plains, had thought to find there the peace of God — but then he was only passing through. For those who live by these straight, empty, dirt roads where the nearest neighbour is over the horizon, the dominant feeling is that of utter isolation, often of exile. This accounts — at least in part — for the Argentinians' easy friend- ship: their hospitality, their eagerness for news from the outside world — and their stand-offishness towards their continental neighbours, who somehow seem more at home in their own surroundings. A longing for somewhere else — Europe mostly — isolates Argentinians, even amongst themselves. 'The war achieved far more than those hideous crowd scenes outside the presidential palace,' my mate-drinking, P. G. Wodehouse-lover of a host tells me in the cool evening, out on the porch, Tor once it brought us all together.'

ack in Buenos Aires an Anglo- Argentine friend takes me to lunch. A tall, distinguished insurance broker, he speaks impeccable English and Spanish — with a hint of an accent in both. By the end of the meal I dare ask him his personal views on the war. He gives me an elliptical answer. 'My great-grandfather came over to Argentina from the Falklands because the Island Company wouldn't sell him land.

He settled in Patagonia, where the Argenti.

nian government just gave it to him.' c Finally, I call on a columnist of one 0' the leading Buenos Aires newspapers, distinguished by its consistent dependence. The offices are in an imposini building with an abundance of W°1"' panelling and carved ceilings; a rock aeon; viction in a country of doubt. The polisheu brass gauges next to the fire hoses on eacli, corner of the glass-domed central courtYar'' show a healthy water pressure. The hoscs have been used only once before — against a Peronist mob which stormed the building back in the Fifties. 'The last thing we wanted was to 0°2 war with Britain over the Malvinas,' journalist exclaims. 'What we desperatell wanted was to solve the problem before gi,e, lost all chance of realigning ourselves wit'' the West.' In his view, too, this would have been impossible to achieve by way of talks' because the British were not interested in the Problem and therefore could not under. stand the Argentinian need for urgencY. The Malvinas issue disjointed Argentiniane foreign policy for a century, he says. 111„ only ones to gain from it were the 11"' tionalists who, in their unresolved love; hatred towards Britain, kept Argentina °,,n.t of World War II. Subsequently they saW to 'vote tactically' at the UN against 111`e West to win Third World support for Malvinas cause. They have now drawn lit; ther strength from the military defeat in ti,:e South Atlantic, and they will exploit 'Fortress Falklands' grievance to the Itt; The West, they will argue, has let Argent it down over the Malvinas problem just as ', forsook her during her so-called `dirtY w3,(0 in the late Seventies. This journalist, 0 has relentlessly criticised the Argentinin military over the question of the 'clisard peared ones', admits to me that he exPect`o better from the West than one-sided hurnaal rights investigations and the internatioll lionising of Mr Timerman. Outside his window, sounds of marchirA;ge men and women rise to a peak and then down, but not before leaving a custorna"r incantation of hatred against the newspall. ringing in our ears. He gives a tired 50; and says: 'That was no more than c warming-up exercise. Wait for this 1n9

next year ... ' to

I could put many Argentinian faces -5 that lonely, hopeless courage which conicr through in his conversation and is fleilfiet found wanting in his column. I could:130-f many more faces still to the quiet pursuit od excellence to which Argentinians past a,,,s present have applied themselves, alti with Europe and America in their nlin'be fear, though, that their numbers maY Otess large enough to arrest the tide of bitter" w and despondency on which the countrY nc20 drifts to the easy haven of Third W°1sic aspirations. She might be too proud to 3, for it, but if ever Argentina needed a frienu.4s, ly hand from the leading Western natO it is now. Maxi Gainza is London correspondent af La Prensa.