Spectator's
Notebook
M. KIIRLISIICHEV thinks that it will be a long, long time before China becomes a nuclear power. The hitherto accepted method of becoming a nuclear power is for the nation concerned to manufacture, at crippling expense, a range of immensely powerful but rapidly obsolescent weapons, the use of which is almost bound to re- sult in the total destruction of the nation. Alone (because of her size and her inscrutability) of the late starters in the nuclear race, China is in a position to catch up with the leaders by an ex- pedient which will cost her nothing at all. If Peking announced—tomorrow, say—that China had got the bomb, the news would be received with scepticism, if not with incredulity. Scientists, in particular, would dismiss the claim, on the valid grounds that their highly efficient instru- ments had registered no tests on Chinese terri- tory; but unanimity has never been a distinguish- ing feature of the scientific world, and a school of thought would soon emerge which contended that, despite appearances to the contrary, China probably had got the bomb. Outside the scientific world, it would be very difficult for statesmen to hazard their reputations, to say nothing of the future of mankind, by rejecting outright the Chinese pretensions. They would be in much the same position as airport officials who dare not ignore the anonymous telephone caller who says he has planted an infernal machine in an air- liner; but, unlike the airport officials, the world's statesmen would be unable to prove their fears groundless by carrying out a search. All the Chinese Government would need to do would be to keep a straight face, pointedly ignoring all attacks on its bona fides and occasionally leaking a few appetising crumbs of intelligence to the other Powers; and I don't mind betting that be- fore long China would be up there in the first- class carriage With the others, without having paid for her ticket.
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