IMPENDING ACTIVITIES.
• But while the consensus of City opinion is against any acute outbreak of Labour troubles, it is frankly reccignized that the uncertainties surrounding the Coal industry, the findings of the Coal Coinmission and the action to be taken upon such findings must almost inevitably tend to restrain trade activities in the early part of the new year, and it is a consideration of that probability which is largely responsible for the expecta- tions with regard to the probable character of develop- ments during the first quarter of the year. Briefly, it is expected that the beginning of the year will be character- ized by conditions very similar to those which have marked the closing months of 1925. That is to say, activity is looked for in the world of finance and the Stock Exchange rather than in commerce. Moreover; it is expected that this activity *ill be more marked in the matter of new capital flotations and existing variable dividend stocks than in high-class investment descriptions. Dealing with the latter first, it is believed, rightly or wrongly, that investment stocks may have to contend with tliree adverse factors, namely, big additions to existing supplies of stocks, fairly dear money and an un- favourable position in the national accounts. Expectations of dearer money are based, in the main, upon the likelihood of numerous foreign loans creating an adverse effect upon the exchanges, the ingathering of the tax revenue, and the necessity for protecting our gold position. Much, of course, will depend upon the course of developments in the New York Money Market, because any real slump in money rates there might easily act upon the American exchange and cause easier conditions here. At present,' however, there are few signs of any radical change in the monetary and economic position in America, where the extent of speculative operations is a factor in itself which seems likely to call for the maintenance of fairly firm money rates. As regards capital creations, too, it is felt that, while such issues will probably be of a varied charac- ter, including trustee stocks, foreign loans and industrial flotations, the actual amount of capital represented by, trustee issues may easily restrain any advance ini existing gilt-edged stocks, while a not dissimilar effect may be produced by the fact that many of the foreign loans ' will give interest-yields causing investment stocks to look a little dear at the present level of prices. Finally, it is recognized that so far from British Funds and kindred securities benefiting during the next few months by expectations of a good surplus for the current year with a remission of taxation in the next Budget, it may rather be a ease of forebodings with regard to the position to be disclosed by Mr. Winston Churchill.
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