MR. COSGRAVE'S CHANCES
BY the time this issue of The Spectator has appeared, the elections in the Irish Free State (or Eire, as we must accustom ourselves to call it, if Mr. de Valera's draft constitution is approved) will have been held and the results in some of the more compact constituencies will already have been announced. A month ago it seemed to be generally taken for granted that when an election came Mr. de Valera would again be returned to office, possibly even with an increase in his already comfortable majority ; but during the last ten days there have been signs of a return of confidence to Mr. Cosgrave's followers, which seems to be something other than the conventional party optimism which gives buoyancy to minorities on the eve of a general election. Reports from different parts of the country indicate that the belief that Fine Gad may this time win is not confined to the party headquarters in Dublin.
At first sight the grounds for Fine Gael's confidence certainly appear insecure. Their record in the Dail, throughout more or less the whole term of the last parliament, has been singularly unimpressive. Making no real effort to fulfil the proper and useful functions of an Opposition, they have for the past few years devoted the whole of what little energies they possessed to the tedious business of formal obstruction, and many of their quarrels with Mr. de Valera (such as their attack on his readiness to co-operate with Mr. Eden over Abyssinia and their vote against the trade agreement with England) have seemed to show the futility of political despair. But recently, aided by some tactical errors on the part of Mr. de Valera, they have been able to recover some lost ground and something approaching the confidence which they possessed when they were themselves in office. They are no longer a party whose challenge can be summarily dismissed.
Their election programme is certainly calculated to attract. It provides for a prompt settlement of the economic dispute with England, combined with a genuine adherence to the Commonwealth (though it should be remembered that a bare month ago they refrained from voting when Mr. MacDermot introduced into the Dail a motion along precisely there lines) ; the derating of agricultural land, together with a scheme for a recon- struction loan to farmers at a low rate of interest ; for the removal of taxes on raw materials and food ; for the provision of playgrounds and village halls throughout the country, and of free schoolbooks for children in the national schools. This is not to be accomplished at the expense of an increase in taxation, for Fine Gael claims that on the contrary despite these benefits taxation will be reduced. Of this claim Fianna Fail spokesmen have been, not unnaturally, somewhat sceptical. They have asserted that they on their part would gladly have promised these same benefits if they had thought that they could be provided without an increase in taxation, 'which, in their opinion, they could not ; and they have enquired why, if it is Fine Gael's view that they can, they did not provide them during the ten years for which they were in office. Fine Gael reply that once an economic settle- ment has been made with England, trade will expand and ample money will be available. The Irish electorate is not as a whole addicted to economic discussion, but the more realistic of their number will be unlikely not to recognise that this explanation errs on the side of simplicity.
The Fianna Fail programme is more cautious, in effect merely pointing to the party's record during its five years in office and appealing for a mandate to be allowed to continue on the same lines. It is in fact on their record that the election will be mainly lost and won, for Fine Gael speakers also are devoting to it as much attention as they are to their own programme. At the general election of 1932 Fianna Fail promised that, if returned to office, they would abolish the oath of allegiance, cease payment of the land annuities, and reduce taxation. They have succeeded in accomplishing the first of these without much trouble. They have accomplished the second only at the expense of crippling Irish agriculture —in slightly over four years the Free State has lost national income sufficient to pay the land annuities for about twenty years. They have not begun to accom- plish the third—direct taxation has increased since 1932 by L6,000,000 and indirect taxation by about £3,000,000. To their credit they have an admirable record in their housing policy, a programme of industrial development carried out on a somewhat insecure economic basis under cover of a policy of restricted imports and increased credit facilities, and numerous minor but none the less valuable measures of social reform.
They have also behind them (though it is uncertain what proportion of the electorate regards it as to their credit) a policy of constitutional readjustment which reached its zenith a few weeks ago in the publication of Mr. de Valera's draft constitution. The draft consti- tution as a whole has undoubtedly disappointed the hopes of its promoters. Theoretically it should not affect the result of the election, since it is to be made the subject of a separate plebiscite (it would be quite possible for the draft constitution to be rejected on the same day that Fianna Fail was returned to power) ; but in fact its effect on the result may be considerable. Its publication was timed to create an atmosphere of enthusiasm for Fianna Fail in which as election might be held with little chance of failure, but this intention has completely miscarried. The constitution is a long and clumsily constructed document, largely compounded of statements of principle which may be admirable in themselves but which possess no judicial relevance and no force in such a context. To a large proportion of the electorate it is quite incomprehensible, and even from those who have declared themselves able to under- stand it there have been few professions of enthusiasm. Yet in the absence of any detailed programme with which to confront that offered by Fine Gael, it is in effect on this document, together with the appeal to be allowed to continue for another term on the lines which his party has developed, that Mr. de Valera is going to the polls. If he succeeds he will be the first Irish politician to win an election on a programme which he is certain of being able to fulfil.
Never th .less it should be recognised that some of the circa mstances which may seem likely to gain M. Cosgrave votes are in fact unlikely to do so to an appreciable extent. A case in point is the rising cost of living. The cost of living has already risen to a high level and continues to rise ; Fine Gael's exploitation of this fact may gain them some votes in urban constitu- encies, but it will nor-entice away from Fianna Fail the support of the small farmer (he represents a very large section of the population) who lives largely on his own produce and buys very few shop goods, and in whom moreover the traditional hatred of England, and conse- quent distrust of any party prepared to co-operate with England, is probably strong enough to outweigh con- siderations of personal expense unless they are con- siderable. Indeed it seems on the whole more probable that among the smallholding sections of the community such votes as will be diverted from Fianna Fail by the economic argument will be gained less by Fine Gael than by Labour. The position of Labour is intrinsically weak, for the trade union movement is not a power in Ireland, and hitherto Labour has had negligible support outside the cities. But nevertheless it stands to gain considerably from this election, for the advanced views of some of Mr. Norton's colleagues may gain support from those elements which have hitherto voted for Mr. de Valera, but have recently been dismayed by his mite face against the militant extremists of the I.R.A. If Fine Gael does manage to increase its vote to bring it within striking distance of Fianna Fail, it may very well find the balance of power held by a Labour Party unsympathetic to its views.
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