THE BALKAN DANGER.
OUR readers may remember that during the past five years we have from time to time pointed out that the greatest and. the most essential problem of foreign politics is that concerned with the South Slays, their relations with the nations within whose territories they dwell, their political aspirations, and their future. An exceedingly able statement of the Balkan danger, which is in truth the danger connected with the South Slays, is to be found in the March number of the new "quarterly review of the politics of the British Empire," the Round Table (the Secretary, 175 Piccadilly, London, price 2s. 6d.). The Bound Table, as all judicious students of contemporary politics know already, is a periodical conducted with vigour, with knowledge, and with a high sense of respon- sibility. Many of its articles have been remarkable for their insight and width of view, but none, we venture to say, has been more illuminating than the first article in the current number. To begin with, the article shows with- out exaggeration or bitterness what has become apparent during the past year to all students of Turkish affairs. The Young Turks are not only losing ground with their fellow-subjects of the Ottoman Empire, but they are also losing the internal strength which came very largely from the genuine aspirations for reform and the genuine desire to raise their country through devotion to Liberal ideas which originally inspired the movement. One might have imagined that the Young Turks would, in the long run, have had to choose between old-fashioned Mohammedanism on the one hand or, on the other, the widening of the basis of the Turkish Empire by admitting the Christian and, non-Ottoman races to a real and not a nominal share in its conduct and manage- ment. Strange as it may seem, however, the Young Turks have not chosen or not been able to sit upon either of these stools. They have occasioned a profound mistrust among the Old Turks, and at the same time they have not won the support of the powerful non-Mohammedan elements in Turkey. For the moment and by what seems a miracle they have not fallen between the two stools, but appear suspended in mid-air. They are, in fact, in that condition which was so specially abhorrent to our real property lawyers in the past. They resemble "a contingent remainder with- out a particular estate to support it." This apparent miracle is no doubt due to the fact that the Yonnerurks are really the old Ottoman elan under an alias, and they are showing the strength as well as the weakness of their origin. The Ottoman Turk (like the original Manchu) has a certain genius for conquest and what for want of a better name we must call aristocratic militarism, but there his powers stop. He has always been obliged to hire persons of other nationalities, whom he despises, to do the work of civil government for him.
As the writer in the Bound Table points out, "the revolution was organized in Constantinople and Salonica, the former the home of Turks who have become Levantines, the latter the headquarters of the Mohammeda,nized Jews from Spain—the only people the Young Turk would trust to help him in his reforms." But the Constantinople and Salonica cliques who still run the Turkish Govern- ment are anything but orthodox Mohammedans. To the orthodox, indeed, they are nothing but unbelievers. On the other band, the Christians and the Albanians, on whom Mohammedanism sits lightly, are equally distrustful. The only strength of the Young Turk is, as we have said, his Ottomanism. He does represent, even if in a left- handed way, the old proud ruling military aristocracy. In him the fighting traditions of the horde still remain. He is a soldier and knows how to handle soldiers ; and since he has not forgotten to pay them, as did some of his fore- fathers, he is still able to retain the reins of power. How long this will last remains to be seen, but, in our opinion, it cannot last very long. We say this with sincere regret, for we admit that we had very considerable hopes of the Young Turkish movement at the beginning. Things might have been very different if the Young Turks could only have learnt the great lesson that only those keep power who do not misuse it ; who are not jealous of it, but willing to part with it ; who will share it with others, and thus lay a broad base for their rule. The Young Turk, how- ever, after the first six months of revolutionary intoxication determined that he could not part with power, but meant to keep it for himself. He Was like those depicted by Cromwell in his famous sentence : "Every sect saith, Oh give me liberty ' ; but give him it, and, to his power, he will not yield it to anybody else." From the moment that the Young Turks dressed themselves in the old Hamidian garb of tyranny, their doom was sealed. They had no raison d'etre except as reformers and liberators.
The prospect of the downfall of the Young Turk makes the situation very serious, for the Young Turk will not fall without a fight, and out of that fight may come perils groat and far-reaching for Europe and for the whole world. The South Slays and the races that are Slavonic in culture and religion if not in origin, like the Bulgarians, will not miss the opportunity, which will be given to them by another revolution in Turkey, of carrying out their long-cherished aspirations. Why not form a ring and let them fight it out ? is the first thought of the plain man. The answer is that what may be described as the pivot State of Europe, Austria-Hungary, will not, or perhaps we should say cannot, allow them to fight it out. If there is a scramble in the Balkans, Austria-Hungary must assert herself. If she did not, then the South Slays, who form so largo a portion of each half of the Dual Monarchy, would know the reason why. To put the matter in a metaphor, the South Slav Sphinx, if things begin to stir in the Balkans, will at once put her dread riddle to the Dual Monarchy, and that Power must answer it or sacrifice what she believes to be her future. No doubt there is apparently an easy answer to the riddle. Unfortunately, however, it is one which in all probability would shatter the throne of the Hapsburgs. When we say the answer is apparently easy, we mean that if the conditions were totally different from what they are, the solution of Trialisru should prove an admirable one for Austria-Hungary. Austria-Hungary would begin by absorbing Servin, and probably Montenegro and the northern part of Macedonia, and then she would join these Serb annexations to her two provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina, plus Croatia and. those further portions both of Hungary and Austria which are inhabited by the Southern Slays. From these elements she would create a new South Slav kingdom, of which the Emperor of Austria would be Czar. [In the vast treasury of his titles we believe he already holds that of Czar in prophetic readiness.] Thus the Dual would become a Triple Monarchy, holding Albania as a dependent and possibly semi-autonomous outpost. But though on paper this sounds plain sailing, there are a great many obstacles in the way. In the first place it is very doubtful whether Hungary would allow some three million Croats and Servians to be severed from her crown, nor would Austria easily part with her Serb-Croat provinces, though in her case the surrender might not mean so great a sacrifice. It is quite possible, indeed, that the two ruling races in the Dual Monarchy, the Magyars of Hungary and. the Germans of Austria, might act together to prevent what they would regard as joint dismemberment. Rather than sacrifice any of their own power they would prevent Trialism, though Trialism if it could be worked might go very near to making the monarchy of the Hapsburgs the most powerful State in Europe.
But even if these internal difficulties could be got over would the Hapsburg Monarchy be content to let the Bulgarians have Turkish Roumelith and North-Eastern Macedonia ? Yet if Bulgaria were not given North- Eastern Macedonia one may feel certain that with her powerful army she would never allow the absorption of Servia, North-Western Macedonia, and Albania by Austria- Hungary. Rather than be loft out in the cold Bulgaria might even join hands with the Turks. The truth is that it is far easier to suggest a paper plan for the partition of Turkey in Europe than to carry it out in practice. In the abstract no doubt the simplest scheme would be for Austria-Hungary, as the most power- ful and most deeply interested State, to cut up the cake in fair slices and band it round on a plate. For example, one can imagine the Emperor of Austria suggesting the following partition as a fair and, reasonable one all round. The Turks would be allowed to remain in possession of the whole of their Asian possessions, plus Constantinople and a small portion of territory which would include the European shores of the Bosphorus, of the Sea of Marmora, and. of the Dardanelles, with free egress and regress secured to the Russian fleet both in the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. The rest of the eastern section of European Turkey down to but not including Salonica might be given to Bulgaria.* The remainder would fall to Austria, including Albania, and. the greater part of Epirus. The southern angle of Epirus, Crete, and. the G reek islands would go to Greece. Finally, Italy would be secured in the possession of Tripoli. By this arrangement Austria-Hungary would get her access to the ./Egenn, and at the same time Bulgaria and Greece would be placated, while Servia and. Montenegro, even though they suffered extinction, would play a great part in the newly created South Slav Kingdom. Such a plan no doubt leaves out Roumania, and Roumania is a strong Power ; but very possibly Bulgaria, so greatly enriched by her access to the 1Egean and. by the prospect of some day obtaining Constantinople, would be able to give Roumania some compensation on that country's southern border. Finally Russia would obtain her access to the Mediterranean.
As we have said, the real obstacle to any such plan is the doubt whether Austria-Hungary can bring herself to answer the riddle of the South Slav Sphinx. There is, however, a further element of difficulty. Who is going to bell the Ottoman cat ? No doubt Austria-Hungary, Bul- garia, and Greece in agreement are, from the military point of view, fully able to deal with Turkey. At the same time if the Ottoman clan really gets its back against the wall, it might very easily give so good. an account of itself that it would. cost the allied Powers immense sacrifices in men and treasure to secure a final victory. Remember that Austria-Hungary, though secure from any foreign intervention, had to use an army of 150,000 men for nearly two years before she got complete possession of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Yet those provinces were, com- paratively speaking, small in area, were close to her own borders, and, what is more, contained a large Christian population which was hostile to the Turks. Depend upon it, when the Turks make their final stand in Europe they will take a great deal of conquering, powerful though the Bulgarian army and efficient though the military machine of Austria-Hungary may be. Are events going to shape them- selves in this way, and, if so, will a beginning be made this spring ? Who can tell ? No doubt neither Austria- Hungary nor Bulgaria will move so long as no revolutionary action takes place in Turkey. No doubt, also, this fact is very well known to the Turks, and tends very much to keep the present holders of power in Turkey in possession of that power. The vast majority of Mohammedans may want to get rid of the Young Turks, but they dread to do so lost worse things should befall them. All, then, really depends upon whether the state of unstable equilibrium at Constan- tinople can be continued. If it can, nothing will happen this spring, and. the optimist will be able to say that for the twentieth time there have been the old. dismal pro- phecies of what would. happen when the snow melted. in the Balkans, and, nothing has happened. On the other hand, if a crash takes place in Constantinople, then, undoubtedly, it will be very difficult to avoid the scramble of which we have spoken. It is conceivable, though we know no secrets, that a partition of Turkey in Europe, somewhat on the lines we have suggested, has already taken place on paper. Bulgaria would no doubt have very little objection to throwing • The dividing line might, perhaps, be the Struma River, Bulgaria taking tho land to the east and A ustria•Hungary that to the west ; but we need hardly say that there are innumerable objections—racial, geographical, and political—to this as to every other scheme of partition when Considered in detail, Servia, whom she hates and despises, to the Andre- Hungarian wolves. The fact that Bulgaria and. Greece seem to have come to terms, not only with each other, but with Austria-Hungary, points, indeed, in this direction, Finally, there is the curious fact that something or some one or other last autumn put the Italians in motion and made them seize Tripoli. Is it not possible that this was the first move in a secret partition of Turkey in Europe arranged under the auspices of the late Count Aehrenthal ? Certainly there must have been soine.. very clear arrangement between Italy and Austria- Hungary before the Italian move, for, whatever else is dark, it is obvious that the Italians obtained a free hand in Africa, so far as Austria-Hungary was con- cerned, on condition that the campaign in Tripoli should. not involve war in the Balkans. Under our supposition Austria-Hungary, having negotiated a partition treaty with Italy, Bulgaria, and Greece, bowed to Italy and said. : "You are now welcome to take your piece provided you do not interfere in Europe, and thus force us and the Bulgarians to take ours before the time is ripe." At any rate, our hypothesis accounts for the sudden action of Italy better than any other that we have yet seen. There remains to be considered the interests of the British Empire should events, sooner or later, move in the direction we have indicated. In our opinion we have no cause to take action. It cannot be said that if the changes on the map take place which we have indicated our position would be endangered. By those changes no one Great Power would. be given a position of predominance in Europe, such as would make the welfare and independence of the other Great Powers precarious. Again, the in- terests of the two Powers with which we are in virtual alliance—France and. Russia—would not suffer any appreciable injury. In our opinion, then, it would be most unwise for us to intervene or to show jealousy, anxiety, or annoyance. Certainly this country is in no sense an enemy of the South Slays, but very much the reverse. Britain desires to see them obtain the right to develop in peace and safety ; and. if on the whole they come to the opinion that they can develop best in a united. kingdom under the Hapsburgs, and if the internal obstacles to the creation of such a kingdom can be got over, then this country will assuredly wish them God-speed. To interfere in the Balkans merely for the sake of interfering, and in order to show that we must be consulted in any great change, would be exceedingly foolish. We have got plenty to do elsewhere. No doubt in the case of the changes indicated it would. probably be wise for us to regularize our position in Egypt by a formal annexation, but to do so would cause an alteration in name rather than in fact. Taking things as a whole, the less we meddle with the Balkan imbroglio the better.
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