EARL RUSSELL ON POLAND.
THE first impression produced by the Polish correspondence just presented to Parliament will be one of surprise at the accuracy of newspaper information. The insurrection has lasted nearly four months, and for the greater part of that time the Five Powers have been in incessant communication. The progress of affairs has been misrepresented alike by Russians and insurgents, while all negotiations have been, in ap- pearance at least, kept secret. With the exception of the single note addressed by France to St. Petersburg, nothing has been suffered to ooze out in an official form ; yet every act in the insurrection, every step in the negotiations, has been accurately made known to the public. We cannot accuse ourselves of a blunder or even a misapprehension, unless it be that of slightly underrating the energy of our own Govern- ment. Every fact we have stated, every surmise we have apparently hazarded, is here confirmed on the strongest official evidence. The cause of the revolt was the conscrip- tion, the author of that great crime was the Marquis Wielopolski, its object was the seizure of all who were suspected of disaffection to the Government plans. It was intended, as Lord Napier remarks, to " Kidnap the opposition," and the lists of proscription had been prepared by the police through a period of two years. Throughout the affair the Russians acknowledge their distrust of their own officers, and hint at the use which may in extremity be made of the peasants' passion for land, while the worst accounts of Russian atrocities are confirmed by official and friendly hands. As to the extent of the insurrection also the public has judged aright, for though Lord Napier asserts that the reports from Courland, Samogitia, and Lithuania are grossly exaggerated, he himself explains carefully that his information as to the frontier districts of Russia is very limited. Throughout, the British Government appears to have been unusually well informed. Colonel Stanton, Consul-General at Warsaw, of course knew as little as military diplomatists usually do, laughed at the possibility of revolt, and when it occurred condemned it as a foolish attempt, organized by 3fazzini. He lives apparently among the military clique found in all great capitals, and which is invariably the most ignorant of all the coteries, but, fortunately for the reputation of Her Majesty's Government, the British Ambassador at St. Peters- burg is a man of a different stamp—a worthy colleague of Sir Hamilton Seymour and Lord Redclyffe. Lord Napier's despatches are models, full of accurate but condensed in- formation, acute reasoning, and clear foresight. The correspondent of a daily newspaper could scarcely write more intelligibly or be more fully informed ! Lord Bloomfield, at Vienna, appears to be trusted by the Court, and managed, at all events, to obtain a clear theory of the Austrian view of the revolt, a matter of some complexity. So, too, with regard to negotiations. The public has accurately apprehended the attitude of the Five Powers ; Russia, polite but resolved; Prussia, enraged but shuffling ; France, desirous of stonc, action, but still half hesitating to take it; Austria, distracted between hatred of Russia, and dread of "losing a rich and tranquil province ;" and Great Britain, earnest for freedom, but anxious to secure it by appeals to treaty and precedent, rather than to general prin- ciples or the rights of a subject nation. Even on the much disputed question of the convention, the popular impression was right. It was proposed by Herr von Bismark, and accepted by St. Petersburg, and then on the European remon- strance declared a dead letter, but retained in the spirit by orders addressed to the General commanding the Prussian frontier. Under these orders, says Sir Andrew Buchanan, whose canny acuteness is much more than a match for Herr von Bismark all through, anybody may be arrested by the Prussians because he is a suspicious character, and by the Rus- sians because he is not, which is the precise state of things the Convention was intended to introduce.
The new fact in these despatches, at least to those who have not watched the strange swell of excitement visible in all European Courts, is what diplomatists call " the gravity of the situation," the irm severity with which the opinion of the West has been pressed upon the Cabinet of St. Petersburg. The Emperor of the French wanted from the first to use ex- pressions with respect to the Bismark Convention, which would have been equivalent to a declaration of war, and was only withheld by the refusal of the British Cabinet to join in any such note. The note, moreover, ultimately despatched by M. Drouyn de Lhuya to St. Petersburg precisely corresponds with the analysis published by the Pays, and described by ourselves last week, contains all the threatening expressions, and demands that the "symptoms of an inveterate evil" should be removed by a " durable peace" and most " regret- able complications" thereby avoided. The note of the British Government is almost as strong, the Russian Government being informed that as a " member of the community of Euro- pean States, she has duties of comity towards other nations to fulfil. The disturbances which are perpetually breaking out among the Polish subjects of His Imperial Majesty necessarily produce a serious agitation of opinion in other countries of Europe, tending to excite much anxiety in the minds of their Governments, and which might, under possible circumstances, produce complications of the most serious nature." Earl Russell was even clearer in speech, using at least one most unmistakeable menace. The Russian Ambassador asked him whether the note to his Court was of a " pacific" nature, to which Earl Russell replied, " That it was, but that as he did not wish to mislead him he must say something more. Her Majesty's Government had no intentions that were otherwise than pacific, still less any concert with other Powers for any but pacific purposes. But the state of things might change. The present overture of Her Majesty's Government might be rejected as the representation of the 2nd of March had been rejected by the Imperial Government. The insurrections in Poland might continue, and might assume larger proportions ; the atrocities on both sides might be aggravated and extended to a wider range of country. If in such a state of affairs the Emperor of Russia were to take no steps of a conciliatory nature, dangers and complications might arise not at pre- sent in contemplation." Lord Napier at St. Petersburg held language almost equally high, compelling Prince Gortschakoff to acknowledge that even he disapproved of the Polish con- scription, and driving him back on the argument that Russia since 1830 held Poland simply by right of conquest.
The publication of conversations like these at a juncture like the present is a most grave event, if only because a simi- lar one preceded the Crimean campaign. It looks as if Her Majesty's Government, satisfied that no concession was to be obtained from the Czar, had published the correspondence in order to justify stronger and more decided steps. Otherwise it is usual in matters of such importance to wait for the final reply, and then, if that be favourable, to conceal all indica- tions of the unusual pressure applied. Indeed, if the reply has been received, and is truly reported in the Vienna Prase, it will be scarcely possible for the two Governments to continue a friendly intercourse. A formal demand like that of the British Minister is not to be met by mere promises, to be executed after the rebellion has been quelled, and unaccompanied by the slightest assurance that the treaty, the fulfilment of which Earl Russell demands shall be respected or even recognized. Should it accord with the policy of the Emperor Napoleon to act on the menaces covered by his despatch, England, after adhering to its terms, cannot now question his right, while from the tone adopted by the Foreign Secretary it is difficult to doubt that he regards an armed intervention in Poland as neither an impossible nor an unendurable event. -England alone restrains the Emperor, and this declaration of England's sentiments will, unless we greatly mistake his people, make the pressure on him irresistible. Of course he will leave the door open as long as he possibly can, but let the hour but arrive, and Poland gain some signal success, or suffer some signal defeat, and France may be on the Vistula before Finland has sprung to arms.
It will be observed that throughout the correspondence all parties talk only of Congress-Poland. That does not preclude French intervention on behalf of a kingdom which shall not be a mere Belgium on the Vistula, or English approval of the extended object. Diplomacy can only concern itself with the smaller State, because it is only through the treaties of 1815 that it has any locus standi ; but war is not bound by such rules, and the Russian Government once defeated, may be asked to surrender the ancient kingdom as well as the modern Duchy.
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