TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.
WE have dealt in our " News of the Week " Notes with the progress of the war and with the earth-shaking battle, or rather series of battles, which has ravaged the uplands of Thrace, Macedonia, Thessaly, and Epirus during the past week. Here we must deal once more with the political aspects of the situation. The first of these is the fact that not merely Bulgaria and Montenegro—their military qualities were never in doubt—but Servia and Greece have " found themselves " from a military point of view. Even if, as is most probable, the Turks, in spite of the loss of ten or twelve thousand prisoners in the first week of the war and four or five hundred guns, recover a good deal of their military prestige, nothing can alter the fact that not only the Servians but the Greeks have shown themselves war-worthy In the words of the Persian poet, " By this a world is affected." Who would have dared to say a fortnight ago that we should see not only the Turks flying before Bulgarians, but Greeks and Servians driving Turks out of trenches at the point of the bayonet and capturing not merely guns in position, but field artillery by the dozen, or rather by the score ? We will not say that the Servian and Greek prowess will make the final settlement more difficult, because we have never thought that the path of peace lay through Christian defeat, but it certainly will make that settlement different in many particulars. Not only has the status quo gone, but the Great Powers, in planning the new arrangements, must take note of Servian and Greek victories and of the possession by these States of armies which have proved themselves formidable in war. No doubt States relatively so small will be for a time exhausted by the tremendous effort they are making. Still, it is no exaggeration to say that if the Balkan Alliance holds together, as we believe it will, that combination of States becomes, at any rate as far as the Near East is concerned, one of the Great Powers. After what has happened the notion of the Powers patting the four Balkan States on the head, and telling them to sit quiet in the corner while their elders and betters tidy up the room and settle who is to sleep in which bed, is absurd.
Though we recognize that it is now no good thinking of dictating any settlement to the Balkan States of which they do not on the whole approve, we are still quite hopeful of a settlement being reached without a European conflagration. We notice with no small satisfaction that Austria-Hungary is evidently not going to adopt an anti-Balkan Alliance policy or to do anything which will look like an attempt to humiliate the four States. The Austrians evidently realize, in the words of the American business man, that "this is not going to be the last transaction" between them and the Allies, and that if they are to have a quiet time at home they must not inspire the Southern Slays with the notion that Vienna and Buda-Pesth are " the enemy." Clearly Austria-Hungary is wise here. If she were to commit what the Slays of the Balkans would consider an unforgivable wrong to them, they would undoubtedly do their very best to stir up the Austrian Slays and teach them to regard themselves as unredeemed portions of the great Slavonic race. Remember that owing to these Slavonic victories the world has come to seem a very different place to the Serbs and South Slays generally. They will not in future brook the treatment which they have endured in the past. They are beginning to feel that they are no longer a disinherited and dis- considered race. We feel all the more sure that Austria- Hungary means to profit by this new knowledge from the indications now apparent that even before the war broke out she had taken certain precautions. It seems almost certain that there was anunderstanding reachedbetweenBul- garia and Austria-Hungary, and, through Bulgaria, between Austria-Hungary and Servia, Montenegro, and Greece, as to what should happen in the case of a Turkish defeat. By this we mean that Austria-Hungary insured herself in the Bulgarian office against injury in case of victory by the Allies. Before the first shot was fired, and in order to mobilize and concentrate in peace, the Allies pledged themselves that they would, if conquerors, fully consider and respect the interests of Austria-Hungary. That is why, no doubt, Austria-Hungary did not reoccupy the Sanjak directly hostilities began or make any great movement of troops in a south-easterly direction. If, as some people seem to think, the arrangement even went so far as an under- standing that Austria-Hungary would not claim Salonika and so, necessarily, a considerable part of Macedonia for herself, provided that proper commercial treaties and railway concessions were made in regard to her trade routes to the lEgean, the prospects of peace are all the brighter.
The major problem, however, still remains. How can Russian and Austro-Hungarian interests be reconciled ? Here, again, it is possible that some secret compact, not known officially to the rest of the Great Powers and only calculated to see the light in case of a great Turkish defeat, may have already been made. In other words, Russia, and Austria-Hungary may have already communicated with each other and agreed upon the outline of an ultimate settlement which will satisfy both. If this has been done, as we hope it may, Britain is not likely to complain or to seem affronted, and we trust that, even if their feelings are a little hurt, this may ultimately prove true of the other Great Powers. We trust, how- ever, that the agreement between Austria-Hungary and Russia, if there be one, has not left the question of the future of Constantinople too vague. In our opinion it is much better that that problem should be settled now and once for all. The immediate occupation of Constantinople by Russia may not be possible or desirable, but we confess we should like to see Constantinople, and such a strip of territory as would. take in the western shore of the Sea, of Marmora and the Dardanelles, included in Russia's sphere. It is most natural and right that Russia, as the chief Black Sea Power, should desire to have guarantees that the door that opens into the Euxine shall never be closed against her. The possession of one shore of the two straits and of the Sea of Marmora, plus the inter- nationalization of the waterways, while not abridging the right of the Turks to attempt to remake their Empire in Asia, would accomplish this.
In canvassing the various rearrangements which must be made should. the war end, as we believe it now must end, in the banishment of the Turk from Europe, it is a comfort to feel that this country wants to get nothing out of the scramble, and therefore is in a specially good. position to help in securing a peaceful solution. We have already had for nearly thirty years the only part of the Turkish Empire the possession of which is demanded by our interests, namely, Egypt, and all that we should desire in a great international rearrangement would be a change from the word " occupation " to the word " protectorate,' and the consequent readjustment as to capitulations and consular rights, after the manner of the readjustments effected by the French when they took Tunis, and now to be effected by the Italians in Tripoli. Inter- nationalism in Egypt only differs from internationalism in Tunis, Tripoli, or Morocco in degree, not in kind. If, therefore, a general rearrangement of the Turkish Empire takes place, the most that we shall desire will be a, recognition by the world of an accomplished fact in Egypt, and also in Cyprus—accompanied of course by the capitali- zation of the tribute paid by Egypt and Cyprus to the Turkish bondholders.
A far more important problem remains to be dealt with if the rearrangement which we are discussing takes place. France last year took Morocco for herself, except the small portion allotted. to Spain, an allotment regularized only this week by the conclusion of the Franco-Spanish treaty. Italy has obtained Tripoli and Cyrenaica. Austria-Hungary will, in some form or other, obtain control over Albania, and thus, in effect, of the whole of the coast-line of the Adriatic except for the enclave of Montenegro. The Russians will obtain in remainder or, if events go fast enough, in possession, Constantinople and the European side of both Straits and of the Sea of Marmora. No one can run through these possibilities without noting the fact that Germany gets nothing. That such a result would be a. very great evil we desire to say with all the emphasis at our command. The Spectator is not generally accused of over-friendliness to Germany, and certainly we should never dream of trying to buy off Germany by making concessions to her out of fear. That would be madness. At the same time we do feel that it must seem exceedingly unfair to the German people that all the other Powers —our case is not parallel, for we do not happen to want anything—should be well fed at the thanks- giving feast with pieces of Turkey, and that she should have nothing. The difficulty is to know what to give Germany. No doubt it will be said that Germany is quite capable of looking after herself, and that we need not trouble to help her. Possibly ; but it is also true that her statesmen, as contrasted with the German people as a whole, may at the present moment " prefer the grievance." If they do, the situation will be dangerous. To put it shortly, the German people will be angry and dissatisfied, and their rulers will be inclined to tell them that it is because they do not spend enough upon their fleet—do not, that is, take sufficient precautions against that wicked Power, Britain, which, it will be insinuated, was responsible for Germany's getting nothing out of the Near-Eastern scramble. That being so, and in the general interests of peace, we cannot help thinking that it is most desirable that Germany should be offered a large slice and, as far as possible, not allowed the opportunity to say that nobody loves her. But though we feel this so strongly, there are, no doubt, considerable difficulties in the way of offering Germany anything. The natural thing to do would be to acknowledge German reversionary rights in Asia Minor, the place in which she has already spread her commercial interests so largely. For ourselves we should have no objection to such a course, provided that Syria, including, of course, the Holy Places, were placed in neutral hands. But while we see no objection to earmarking Asia Minor for Germany, it is quite conceivable, nay probable, that the Germans would reply " Thank you for nothing." In the first place it is difficult for them to reach Asia Minor, and next they may well say that if Turkey becomes an Asiatic Empire and loses the drain of her European provinces, she may well cease to be a decadent Power and so one in which reversionary interests are of value.
Is there anywhere else where Germany can have com- pensation ? The subject is one too long to discuss at the end of an article, but we may remark that for ourselves we have always felt that if, as unfortunately seems only too likely, Portugal continues to defy the public opinion of the civilized world, and, either through weakness or indifference, maintains a, condition of slavery in her colonial possessions, these possessions will have to be placed in other and better hands. If this happens we cannot see why Germany should not become the owner of, at any rate, the greater part of Portuguese Africa. In our opinion it would be grossly unfair to say that Germany would not, from the native point of view, be better than Portugal. German colonial administration may not be perfect any more than is ours, but it would be ten thousand times better than that of a nation which, under a hypocritical alias, maintains not only plantation slavery, butslave-trading and slave-raiding of the worst type and on a huge scale.
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