LETTERS TO THE EDITOR.
THE PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER WAR IN SOUTH AFRICA.
t To TUE EDITOR OF VII "SPECTATOR."]
do not wish to underrate the dangers that may arise if any considerable number of Boers trek into the territories of the Chartered Company, and endeavour to establish an independent Government there for themselves; but some of the statements in your article on this subject will hardly bear the test of arithmetic.
You say : "Twenty thousand farmers, with their slaves, their cattle, and their pastors, intend to emigrate to Banyai- land." If they go up singly or in small parties, they can easily be dealt with, for the waggon-routes northward from the Transvaal are well known, and are limited in number.
The whole point is that the movement is, in your own;words, to be one "of invasion for conquest," which involves the twenty thousand going together. What does this mean ? The Boers have always hitherto taken their wives and children on trek,—and, indeed, if the head of the family takes his cattle, his "slaves," and his pastor with him, it is obvious the women and children cannot be left behind.
At the moderate calculation for Boer families of five per household, this gives 100,000 white souls. Each family would need at least one waggon, and no sane man would start on an expedition of that kind without a full team, and some spare oxen besides—say, 20 per waggon altogether : 20,000 X 20= 400,000 oxen. Each waggon-team takes two natives to drive it, and others would be needed to look after the master's
horses, besides the servants (not slaves) who would attend on the family and the cattle. What the number of these last might be, it is hard to say ; but there would be no market in the Transvaal for the stock of 20,000 farmers, all selling out at once, so unless they gave them away, they would have to take them with them ; a very moderate estimate would be 100 head per family,—not much for a prospective farm of 6,400 acres. We have, therefore :-
20,000 farmers with their families = 100,000 white souls.
1 waggon, each with 20 draught oxen = 409,000 oxen. 100 head of cattle, &c., per family — 2,000,000 cattle, &c. 2 native servants per waggon, and 2 more per family = 80,000 natives.
It would be easy to point out the enormous difficulty of maintaining such an expedition, or of leading it, however slowly, through wild, unsettled country, where water is not always and everywhere abundant ; but that is hardly neces- sary, in view of the fact that the white population of the Transvaal, outside Johannesburg, Pretoria, and Klerksdorp,. is not estimated at more than 70,000; so there are nothing like. 20,000 adult male farmers in the whole of it.
An important point overlooked by the writer of your article is that Mr. Rhodes's speech was delivered at the Paarl,. the stronghold and centre of Mr. Hofmeyr's influence. Now,. but for Mr.,Hofmeyr, the Boer pretensions, after their victory at Majuba, might have been too much even for Lord Kim- berley; and but for Mr. Hofmeyr, President Kruger might. not have restrained as he did the ardent spirits who sym- pathised with the freebooters against whom Sir Charles. Warren's expedition was directed.
It would be interesting to know whether Mr. Rhodes's. speech was made after consultation with Mr. Eofmeyr, and whether the latter endorses or differs from the sentiments. expressed therein.
Information on this point may be forthcoming by the next mail. Meanwhile, I am sure that President Kruger would do. a great deal to maintain peace, more particularly if he was not certain of the active sympathy of .A.frikander Bond in the- event of a rupture.—I am, Sir, &c.,
House of Commons, May 26th. EBRINOTON.
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