DANGERS AND PERPLEXITIES ABROAD.
IT looks as though the French might be unwillingly drawn into the serious entanglement in Morocco which, by their policy of restraint and patience, they have conspicuously been trying to avoid. An expedition on as large a scale as is compatible with the Algeciras Act has always presented itself to the more heroic of the French Colonial Party as the only solution for strong men to attempt. The provocations and temptations to such an expedition are too obvious to be recounted, but there is no sign yet that the French people are being seduced, in spite of the almost uniform and inspiriting reports of minor successes by General Drude at Casa Blanca, from their overwhelming desire to rest at peace both at home and abroad. We shall return to Morocco presently, but for the moment must pause to notice the very curious fact that while the upheaval in Morocco is directed by Mohammedans largely against the people who represent the civilisation of Europe, in Persia the Mohammedan discontent is caused by an exactly- contrary desire,— that. of establishing such a Constitution as European nations have taught the world to admire. And Morocco and Persia are not the only countries in which old troubles are rather suddenly taking a new form. There is Portugal. Here the reports are more contradictory than ever before ; but at least the enthusiasm and violence with which report is issued to deny report show that movements are on foot which are stirring the Portuguese people to their depth. The agitation, which is ostensibly pro-Constitutional and anti-Dictatorial, may at any moment take an anti-dynastic turn, as the King is identified with all the objects of popular denunciation. One cannot tell. It is enough to say that the affairs of Morocco, Persia, and Portugal are three striking dangers and perplexities in the progress of the world. We can do little more than record the character of each.
We hope that the French may be able to restore order in Morocco without committing themselves deeply in a military sense, because we are convinced that no man can foresee what the end of serious operations would be in such a country. At the same time, we well understand that the French, having demanded and accepted the right to act as the special representatives of Europe in Morocco, do not wish to fall short of the performance which they proposed to themselves under their newly sanctioned responsibility. Whatever is done in Morocco in the near future must be done by them; theoSultan Abd-ul-Aziz is a mere figure of straw, and can stretch his sceptre over the land only if the French are always standing by to support his arm. That they are willing to try to do that is clear, for if there was ever any question of their aiding the pretender Mulai Hafid, their policy, as skilfully managed by M. Regnault, is now officially on the side of the reigning Sultan. But French operations directly conducted against the insurgent tribes in the interior are quite another matter. The tribes know their country well, and would fight at enormous advantage in mountainous or intricate places ; some of them are excellent light cavalry; and if they undertook a Holy War against the French, they would be doing so, not with the lack-lustre courage of the Sultan's unpaid bodyguards, but with the ferocity of outraged fanatics. The difficulties into which the Germans fell in their struggle with the Hereros, who were weak in numbers, are the best recent example of the way iu which a country may fight in its courses, as it wore, against the invader, however well disciplined and scientific his army may be. For these reasons, we regard the news of the attacks on the French on and about the Algerian frontier as by far the most serious that has come lately from Morocco. While the attention of Europe has been turned on Casa Blanca and the other ports, this trouble has broken out in a part of the country where there can be no co-operation between the French and the Sultan's machinery of government. Indeed, ITjda, the Moorish town which the French occupied after the murder of Dr. Mauchamp at Marrakesh, is so far distant from the centre of government that for all practical purposes it might be in another land. We sincerely hope that there will be no union of sympathies between the Moroccan and Algerian tribes. That might greatly complicate matters for the French in their own colony. That more French troops must be drafted to the Algerian frontier is now inevitable ; but we have yet to see how far the French Government will agree with the Temps that the policy of demon- strative restraint—the policy of petits paquets—must be modified.
A large number of Persians have not long been in possession of their new Constitution and their new King before they have become convinced that the indifferent working of the one is to be explained by the intrigues of the other. We have no evidence worth quoting as to the bad faith or complicity of the Shah, but he seems to be anxious enough to please his Ministers when they appear before him. He undertakes to sign everything passed by his Parliament " within two hours." That sounds fairly prompt, even in a country where no promptitude means no signature. The Persian correspondent of the Times describes an extraordinary demonstration against the Shah which took place at the end of October. At the Royal Mosque one day the Shahzadeh (or Prince) Amjad- el-Mulk harangued the people after midday prayers. 0 people of Teheran," he cried. " the chief cause of your present troubles is your ruler Mohammed Ali Shah. If you want to have a happier country, you must depose this Monarch and set up another man in his place." In the rest of his speech the young Shahzadeh, who was educated in France, declared that in the fifteen months during which the Constitution had existed no improvement had been achieved in the condition of the country ; the provinces were on the verge of rebellion, and there was no executive power in the country ; the Turcomans were raiding their territory and massacring their pilgrims, and Russian intrigue was growing day by day. In any other country, he said, a Constitution like theirs would have produced peace and prosperity. Why did it not do so in Persia? The answer was that the Shah, and the Shah alone, was to blame. Every English reader of this remarkable tirade will remember, without precisely holding a brief for the Shah, that the object of a Constitution is to enable the community to get the upper hand over the individual ; and that if the Constitution shows no sign after a considerable trial of helping the community to do this, some blame may be due to the working of the Constitution as well as to the obstinacy of the individual. Meanwhile the Con- stitutional devotees (those who are sworn as ready to sacrifice their lives for the Constitution) have published a declaration against the anti-Constitutionalists. " This is our last circular;" they say. " If you persist in stirring up hostility to the Constitution, we shall regard you as our worst enemies " Dots in these cir- culars are understood to mean bloodshed. Such were the events which led up to the resignation of the Cabinet announced in Thursday's papers. If fighting should follow, it will be between the Royalists and the Constitu- tionalists. The Government took office with the intention of restoring order first, and then proceeding to reforms. Their resignation shows that they have failed. With all our strong and natural sympathy for the Constitutionalists, we cannot help thinking that the word " Constitution " is being employed as though it were a magic spell or simple, and that the consequent disillusionment is as strong a factor in the disquiet as the Shah's personal obliquity.
The alarming reports from Portugal, as we have said, have all been contradicted, but there cannot be such dense clouds of smoke without fire. It was said, and con- tradicted, that the Crown Prince had protested to the King against the continuance of the dictatorship of Senhor Franco, and that he had been exiled as a mark of his father's displeasure with him and friendship for the Dictator. It was said, and contradicted, that numerous bombs had been discovered, and that many suspected Anarchists had been arrested and shipped out to sea. These are only examples of the statements. If part of Senhor Franco's Dictatorial programme is to prevent the Press from exporting the truth, he is to be congratulated on his success. One report, which is reiterated, is that all parties have combined at last against Senhor Franco, who has the full confidence of the King. It is a case of the King and his Minister contra mundum. It is all very well for the malcontents to con- demn the dictatorship on high Constitutional grounds, but unfortunately every party in the State has resorted to dictatorships in its time. In Portugal both parties (almost by collusion, so unreal are the elections) have taken turns at enjoying the spoils, and have asked for, or established, a dictatorship when things from time to time fell into such desperate chaos that only some direct and rapid action could pull them straight. At the same time, Senhor Franco's dictator- ship has perhaps exceeded the limits of fair play. It has lasted for more than a year. A dictatorship can only be justified by success, and apparently the malcontents are unable to discover any of the reforms for the purpose of introducing which the Constitution was suspended. Some of the accounts are very positive about Senhor Franco's rectitude and good intentions ; but after all, the long maintenance of a dictatorship is like asking a person to live on cordials and styptics. What saves life in a crisis is not necessarily, or even generally, a nourishing diet. We imagine that the King and his Minister can depend on the Army, as the pay of the officers has been raised. But we who remember our ancient friendship and former alliance with Portugal hope sincerely that the ultimate appeal will not be to force.
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