Europe and Russia
EY HUGH SETON-WATSON* HUNGARIAN resistance is still continuing. The general strike is in its fifth week—surely a record in the history of industrial labour. Hunger and despair at the in- difference of the so-called Free World will probably bring i: to an end before long. But to restore Hungary's economy. which even before the Revolution was almost bankrupt, will be no simple task. To create a political administration will be even harder. The Soviet military commander has not made things easier for his servant Kadar by arresting Prime Minister Imre Nagy on his emergence from the Yugoslav Embassy. This action, another example of the well-established Soviet tradition of treachery, was not only an insult to the whole Hungarian nation, but a slap in the face to Marshal Tito.
Both Yugoslavia and Poland are in danger. The Soviet press is bitterly attacking the Yugoslays, and Belgrade has replied sharply. In Poland Mr. Gomulka is understandably discreet. but he cannot, and probably does not wish to, prevent Polish newspapers from expressing their solidarity with Hungary. The Soviet forces in Eastern Germany and in Hungary could quickly be built up for an invasion of either country. The Complete uncertainty about Western intentions, the complete absorption of British and American diplomacy in mutual recriminations about the Middle East, are a standing encouragement for the war party in Moscow. A Soviet attack Would probably have one of two consequences, equally alarm- ing. Either it would meet with effective resistance (in the case of , Yugoslavia at least this is possible), and local war would lead by stages into a world war; or it would be quickly success- ful. and the Soviet generals, drunk with blood, would feel the time had come to finish off Europe altogether, while the Anglo- Saxon Powers conveniently snarled at each other elsewhere, and this of course would also lead in time to a world war.
It should not be thought that the Soviet Union is stronger than it was. On the contrary, the supreme leadership has More grounds for division, rivalry and mutual accusations than ever, It is inconceivable that the bankruptcy of 'popular democracy' in Hungary and Poland, the detestable duties given to the army in Budapest, and the uncertainties of the Syrian adventure, have not sharpened the distrust between Khrushchev and his party rivals, between the party bosses and the marshals. There have been several scraps of reliable evidence on the low Morale of the troops in Hungary, and the effects on Soviet Worker-soldiers of breaking strikes, massacring unarmed
* Professor of Russian History at London University.
working-class crowds, and being attacked in their tanks by children armed with petrol bombs, will be felt for some time.
One may hope that among the casualties of this black November have been the rosy beliefs proclaimed by President Eisenhower at Geneva and by Sir Anthony Eden in London last April, of friendship with the Soviet leaders. In Budapest the enemy has revealed himself.
It cannot now be in doubt, if ever it was, that neither Europe nor Germany can continue to live half-slave half-free. It is not hard to see the sort of European settlement that must be the aim of Western policy. Its essence is a united independent Germany and independence for the nations of Eastern Europe. Free Germany would have to make its own settlement with free Poland, and it is clear that this would mean substantial acceptance of the Oder-Neisse line, even if details might be revised. In return for such a settlement the withdrawal of American troops from Europe, and even the withdrawal of Germany from NATO, are a price that is worth discussing. The whole settlement would of course require a multilateral guarantee involving immediate use of the atomic sanction against aggression. All this would really be to Russia's interest. The bankruptcy of her East European empire can no longer be concealed. The misery and hatred of the Hungarian. Rumanian and East German nations are no asset to her, and the perhaps more compliant Czechs have little enough to offer.
It is, however, obvious that no prospect exists today of nego- tiation for such a settlement. The task of Western policy is now not so much to convince the rulers in Moscow that they would gain from a settlement, as to make the present situation intolerable to them. There are many ways in which the West can be beastly to the Soviet leaders. Every type of boycott, diplomatic pressure and propaganda should be considered. It is particularly important to exploit the low morale of the Soviet army, and to show the Soviet intelligentsia that the Soviet Union is a moral pariah in the whole world, and especi- ally in Europe, and why. The only reasons for rejecting any measure should be either that it would not be effective or that there was a serious danger that it would precipitate the world war which it is the aim of Western policy to prevent. Otherwise no holds should be barred. The aim should be to prove to the Soviet leaders, over a period of time, that they have less to lose from negotiating a settlement.
The most urgent need of all is to get attention back from the Middle East to Europe. On the Middle Eastern issue public opinion is divided in Britain, France and Britain are.separated from America, and the Arab and Asian countries are aligned with Russia and China. On the issue of Soviet imperialism in Europe public opinion is united in the Anglo-Saxon countries and northern Europe and almost united even in France and Italy, all the governments of Western Europe and North America are agreed, Asian governments and opinion are at least uneasy, and even China seems less than enthusiastic in her support for Russia. Moreover, if Britain depends for much of her wealth on Middle Eastern oil, she depends for her existence on the security of Western Europe. It is time that the pretence that Britain is not part of Europe was finally aban- doned. It is time also that the American, government stopped pretending that it can deal with European affairs only through UN, that it can safely leave the fate of Hungary, Poland or other European nations in the hands of Saudi Arabian slave- traders or even of Mr. Nehru. Finally it is time that respon- sible British politicians stopped talking of 'going it alone' without America and without Europe. Every day spent in American reproaches to Britain or British complaints to America is a day granted to Khrushchev and his rivals to compose their differences and recover their nerve.
Previous page
