WHAT BELGIUM MEANS
HENRI ROLIN By SENATOR
But the speech had not necessarily to be published, and it is by no means clear that it. was its author's intention that it should be. It is on Ministers alone that there rests the responsibility for deciding—perhaps rather hurriedly—on the publication of what they had heard, most of them never anticipating for a moment the com- motion their action would cause.
So much for the form. As regards the substance, it would be a profound mistake to look to the few sentences of the royal speech which have been generally quoted for a full indication of Belgium's new foreign policy. It must not be forgotten that the principal subject under discussion at the Cabinet meeting at which the King's speech was delivered was the military problem. The General Staff was urging that the term of service should be raised for the infantry from ten or twelve to eighteen months, and it was proposed to convene Parliament in special session to carry through the necessary legislation. King Leopold does not conceal his conviction that the proposed measure is essential for the security of the country. His main purpose in presiding over the Cabinet and delivering his speech was unquestionably to make that clear to everybody. If we bear this in mind, it is easy to indicate what the motives behind the various declarations must have been.
The King knew that the military proposal would meet • with strong resistance on the part of the Socialist Party, which represents half the Government coalition. Whatever their final decision might be, it was not excluded that dislike of military service and suspicion of the army chiefs would dictate many hostile votes. It was therefore of the first importance to ensure that the other two parties in the Government, Liberals and Catholics, should be unanimous in their support of the Staff proposals. But the attitude of the Catholics was by no means certain: Many of them displayed coolness, if not hostility, towards the project, not only on account of genuine anti- militarism, but also of anti-French feeling, due in some cases to Flemish nationalism, in others to dislike of the French Government, which was regarded as akin to the Spanish, infested with BolshevisM, and a danger both to religion and civilisation. It therefore becarne imperative to make it clear in the most impressive way to that part of the Cabinet which shares those prejudices or depends on that section of public opinion, that Belgium intended to have 100 per cent. freedom in her fOreign policy, without any commitment to adven- tures which the Great Powers - might be ready- to embark On. .
There was,, of course, also another, series of considera- tions more directly affecting the foreign situation. Here Brussels, Oct. 27th. the plain purpose was to demonstrate the existence of an increase of danger calling for an increase in the potential of self-defence. The changes in the military position of Germany and the failure of the League to save Ethiopia are the two main factors in question. They led the Government to the conclusion that little immediate help was to be looked for from collective agreements, regional agreements alone providing any substantial guarantee. Thence followed naturally a tendency to strengthen the latter, while weakening the former, or at any rate demand their definition in unequivocal language. There seems to be a feeling in Belgian official quarters that for the present the risks inherent in the collective system at Geneva are not counterbalanced by the assistance to be looked for therefrom in case of aggression.
That being so, it seemed wise also to omit, if possible, from the new treaties now under negotiation—let us call them the new Locarno—all undertakings by Belgium towards France or Germany, so that in case of conflict between them, most probably caused by difficulties in another part of the world, Belgium might remain unaffected. Even if that policy should fail ultimately to carry the day, it would have rendered the service of persuading the most incredulous that the rein- forcement of the army was dictated by considerations of purely national interest. This conception of unilateral guarantees is the only precise characteristic of what may be called the new Belgian foreign policy.
Let me add a word of comment. If these explanations express my own reading of the meaning of the royal speech, I must add that in my view it Would be imprudent to accept them as a full and complete summary of the policy which the Belgian Government is deciding to follow. Perhaps there is no policy which could be so described with perfect accuracy. The Belgian Foreign Minister is new in office. Very able, with a realistic mind, he may be led to correct his own first impressions by the. difficulties he will meet with in the course of his negotiations, and through the reaction of public opinion in general and more especially of the party to Which he belongs. The debates of the Congress of the Socialist Party and the resolution voted on October 26th and not opposed by the Minister, very clearly indicated the attitude of the Party towards the main features of his policy.
Full sympathy is signified with the demand for total independence and autonomy in the foreign policy of the country, and a free hand is accorded to the Govern- ment as to the conditions on which it will be able to retain in the future the British and French guarantees essential to Belgium's security ; but the resolution records the widespread conviction that even the suppression of all special understandings on our side would bring no serious diminution of our risks of war, because of our geographical position and the indivisibility of peace in Europe. It therefore concludes with a solemn declara- tion " that the autonomy we justly claim must not express itself by a passive attitude, but on the contrary by extensive and continuous action for the strengthening of the Covenant, the development of collective security and mutual assistance, and a loyal execution of inter- national undertakings of solidarity."
This, it is worth remembering, represents the considered view of the largest: of the -three- parties supporting the Government in the Belgian Chamber.
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