THE PROSPECT BEFORE US
IT is posterity which shapes the past. Whether, in fifty years' time the year which is now closing or that which is about to break will be seen as belonging to the after- in. ath of the German war, or to the prelude of another and infinitely larger conflict, or to a confused interlude before the dawn of an atomic Utopia of peace and plenty, it is idle to Inquire. All that we know is that certain immediate perils and opportunities confront us. For the rest, we must be content, like the Marquis of Salisbury, to let the consequences take care of themselves. That demands a degree of self- cl. Iscipline which does not come easily to this generation with ds passion for seeing the future with certainty; but there never was a time when the unwisdom of supposing that in politics We can see much further than our noses was more evident.
The most immediate of the perils is that the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, upon which the survival of the Western Powers depends, will be weakened at its most vulnerable point by failure to create an effective combination in Western Europe. That danger has not been wholly removed, as indeed it could Ilot be, by the voting in the French Assembly on Wednesday, for Political and military alliances depend for their stability °n the force of public opinion, and public opinion in France has been shown to be bitterly divided. It is true that the question whether Germany should eventually re-arm is in reality already out of the hands of her former victors; it is an !vent which nothing but the continuing unity, of those victors, Including Russia, could prevent; but this is an occasion on Which a grudging assent to the inevitable should, at almost all costg. have been avoided.
Even if the Western Alliance does emerge strong and united, and with its frontiers both in Asia and Europe firmly secured, the task of 'negotiating from strength ' will still lie ahead, and will not be accomplished by reiterating a formula. It was the custom during the quarter of a century of Left-wing ascendancy in the discussion of politics to point out that the old system of the balance of power had never achieved peace for very long. It is equally true that nothing else ever has. Certainly, no one now supposes that the permanent armed superiority of the Western Powers over the Communist powers, even if it could be maintained, would supply the foundations of lasting peace. Nor do we any longer regale ourselves with dreams of a universal state, an object which, if it could be gained, would depend upon an unprecedented con- centration of force and for that reason open the way to an unparalleled reign of tyranny. On the contrary, the hope now is that, when it becomes apparent to Russia that a challenge will be effectively resisted, tension will begin to diminish, the competition in armaments will decline, and some sort of balance in world politics will return—a state of things in which the practice of the old diplomacy' (than which it is now seen that there are worse evils) might be thankfully resumed. Because this hope, which the actions and speeches of the Prime Minister have done so much to foster, is grounded on realism, it is far healthier than more dazzling ambitions.
At home, as Trimmer points out, the story is also somewhat prosaic. With the connoisseur's eye he discerns Sir Winston Churchill and Mr. Aneurin Bevan as the only creative forces' in contemporary British politics. It is also true that, under- lying this general atmosphere of mediocrity, and in part explain- ing it, are deep social tensions and apparently irreconcilable contradictions in public opinion which reduce the politicians' freedom of manceuvre almost to extinction and put a premium on caution and cliché. It is equally pertinent to remember that liberty consists in restrictions on the movernents.of and that some measure of social tension is the price a com- munity pays for declining to be organised according to some rigid body of principles. This granted, however, it is true that the Government is doing less than it might, and the Opposition is doing practically nothing at all to reconcile public neces- sities with public preferences and prejudices. In its preoccu- pation with the management, by methods of extraordinary skill, of an almost unmanageable public opinion, the Conservative Party is giving less attention than it should to some matters such as the need to make a desperate effort to remove questions like pension policy from the centre of political controversy.
But here, as in the matter of foreign policy, there is already discernible a new and hopeful atmosphere in the discussion of politics. The Left has already lost confidence in the common- places of early Fabianism which so long dominated its thinking, and the Right is acquiring the courage to challenge propositions In which it never believed but which for years it accepted as • unchallengeable under democracy. The people who in the • long run determine public opinion are re-examining their assumptions. It is a process which must be encouraged with confidence, for in it, at the turn of this year, this country's best hope rests.
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