THE " QUARTERLY " ON THE FUTURE OF TURKEY.
IT is waste of time for the moment to discuss the situation in Constantinople. The evacuation of Thessaly, though admitted in principle, is as far off as ever. The world must wait till the German Emperor has made up his mind. His Majesty, influenced by the financiers, who are powerful in Berlin, has resolved to protect the Greek bondholders, and believes, probably with justice, that to protect them it is necessary that Greek finances should be controlled, as Turkish finances are in part controlled, by delegates from Europe. The Greeks, in their natural pride, resist, and the Emperor, to coerce them, supports the Turkish proposal that Thessaly should not be evacuated until the indemnity is fully paid, which will not happen until a prospect of financial reform enables Greece once more to raise a loan. As the other Powers desire that it should be evacuated at once Germany must either yield, in which case Turkey will yield too, or must quit the Concert, in which case a whole series of new combinations would at once arise, and probably produce considerable events. No final decision seems to have been given, and until it is given, which will not be till the Emperor has seen the Czar, the Ambassadors and the world must be content to await with impatient respect the pleasure of William II. He has few interests in Turkey, but he commands without Parliamentary interference the most mobile army in Europe, and he means to make its position felt.
Intermediately rumours are coming in that a change of immense importance has occurred in the relations between Austria and Russia as regards the Eastern question. It is reported that they are no longer opposed, the two Emperors during their recent interview having made an arrangement as to their "spheres or influence" within the Balkan Peninsula. Hints of this kind have been given in public speeches, the change is undoubtedly believed in Berlin, where it creates great irritation, and it is supposed to be the explanation of an otherwise puzzling rapproche- ment between Austria and France. Curiously enough, however, the first positive statement of the change has been put forward in an English publication. A writer in the July number of the Quarterly Review, who, at all events, professes to be familiar with the interior diplomacy of the last thirty years, states without circumlocution and, in the most absolute manner that the agreement has been made, and that the house of Hapsburg has now Russian permission to advance to Salonica, the Balkan Peninsula being, in fact, divided between the two Powers :— " The difficulty of following the precedent of Poland in Turkey has hitherto been the attitude of Russia, who desired to be the sole mistress of the Balkan peninsula. I his idea found its clearest expression in the secret Treaty of Cettinje of July 25th, 1885, and was held as a cardinal article of political faith by an influential school of Russian politicians, among them Katkow, the most powerful man in the country after the Czar. The immediate object was not merely to force Austria to renounce for the future all interference in the Balkan peninsula, but to evacuate Bosnia and Herzegovina without delay. Between such designs and the vital interests of the Empire of the House of Hapsburg no recon- ciliation was possible, and it seemed as if those Austrian states- men were right, who held that any attempt to come to an understanding with Russia on the basis of the partition of Turkey must lead to a repetition of the failure of Joseph H., and to another peace of Sistow which his successor had to conclude. If the Government of the Czar continued to adhere rigidly to the policy of Katkow, which since his death has been upheld by his friend and ally, Podobenoszew, the chief of the Holy Synod, a peaceful solution of the Eastern Question would be, no doubt, impossible. This is, however, not the case. Events and interests in the far East have forced Russia to reconsider her position in South-Eastern Europe, and in the spring of the year negotiations for an understanding with Austria were opened and were brought to a successful issue a few weeks ago when the Emperor Francis Joseph was at St. Petersburg. The official declaration afterwards made in the Hungarian Parliament by Baron Banffy proves its completeness, and the manner in which it has been brought about indicates a momentous change in Russian policy. Austria has now a free hand to push forward gradually towards Salonica, and at the present moment she is doing all that is possible to extend and deepen her influence in Albania. She has the Roman Catholic clergy in Albania and Macedonia as her agents. The Religious Orders especially, who are much and justly respected by the people, are working in her interest with ever-increasing zeal, and continually point out to Christian and to Mussulman alike the happy state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, since Austria conferred upon these provinces the blessing of a civilised existence."
That is a very grave statement indeed, and one whIch the conductors of the Quarterly Review would hardly have published if they had not full confidence in the knowledge and authority of the writer who makes it. It amounts to this, that the one solid obstacle to a partition of European Turkey has disappeared, and that the Sultan, at the height of his triumph over his recent victories, is in greater danger of being dispossessed of his dominions than he was even in 1878. The Russian was then at his gates, but he had then many, as it proved,very powerful protectors. To-day he has only one, and great as is the position of William II. in Europe, it is doubtful if he could protect the Sultan against a design fully supported by Russia and Austria, not resisted by France, and not disapproved by Great Britain, or disapproved only by a part of the nation which could not move actively without the consent of the remainder. Germany is immensely strong, but not strong enough to waste thousands of her children and forfeit the goodwill of Austria in order to resist a policy in which, as Prince Bismarck once openly admitted, her interest is only indirect. If Russia and Austria choose to divide the Balkan Peninsula between them, they can do it, subject only to the condition that they are able to overcome in the field the fierce resistance which the Ottoman tribe, driven to its last entrenchments, and furious with the disappoint- ment of its new hopes, would undoubtedly try to offer. The allied Powers would not, of course, move forward until the way was well prepared, or until they were well assured of the quiescence of Great Britain and France, and would probably wait for some occurrence which gave them a fair excuse, such as a massacre in Macedonia or Roumelia ; but the fact that they are allied, if it is only true, will furnish them with occasions sufficient for interference. Hope would again arise among the Christians of the East. Christian provinces under Turkey do not care much, while they still lie at her mercy, into whose hands they may fall after their escape. Their single object is the escape itself, if only it can be effected without a certainty of immediate destruction. Crete would join Norway cr China sooner than be ravaged by Bashi-Bazouks.
We do not see why this arrangement, supposing it to be made, of which of course there is as yet no sufficient proof, though much probability, the whole paragraph we have quoted being in exact accordance with the interests of the two dynasties concerned, should excite any acute apprehension in this country. Constantinople is nothing to us if we are once firmly seated on the Nile with a legal title and direct powers, we need not fear Russia in the Mediterranean, and we can witness any extension of the Austrian dominion with entire equanimity. That Power is now so nearly federal that she does not even extin- guish the independence of her many States, and their inhabitants secure for themselves an existence which, as compared with the lot of many peoples, is one of happiness and wellbeing. Greece, it is becoming evident, cannot stand alone, and would probably be far happier, as well as safer, if she entered the Austrian Empire on the terms conceded by Prince Bismarck to Bavaria. Roumania, would remain safe and independent as it is now, under the shadow of the Austrian Monarchy, and nobody would propose to interfere with Montenegro until the little principality became too rich to tolerate isolation any longer. We may regret, and do regret, that Bulgaria should be absorbed into the Russian morass, but that is happening already, and better that interruption to the hopes of the world than that Epirus and Albania, Macedonia, Roumelia, and the islands, should remain for another century under the destructive and paralysing Ottoman regime. We wish all petty States to survive, because we wish to see varieties in civilisation, but the late war has shown us all how little is to be hoped from them, how incompetent they are to resist a well-organised Asiatic army. There is, we fear, no help for Eastern Europe against Turkey except in the great neighbouring Powers which can fight on land as well as the Ottomans, and that primary fact once frankly acknowledged, those Powers must be allowed to dictate the terms upon which alone that help will be given in a concrete form. The arrangement is not an ideal one by any means, but the time for ideal arrangements has not arrived, or the Turk would not be trampling down Thessaly, and as an alterna- tive to the continued rule of the Sultan, the plan, though arranged between two Sovereigns and without the consent of those whom it affects, does not so affect the interests of this country as to demand resistwruNa.
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