THE SITUATION IN THE BALKANS.
IN the course of the next few weeks the winter will come to an end in the Balkans and the psychological moment of the " melting of the snows " will have arrived. It is at this season each year that the risk of an outbreak becomes greatest, and there seems to be reason for fearing that this year the outlook is unusually black. The extreme complexity of international relations in the Balkan Penin- sula makes any clear analysis of the situation difficult and any forecast of events almost impossible. But it is worth while to endeavour to trace the main causes that are at work, and more especially to emphasize the alterations which have recently taken place in the state of affairs. Until the outbreak of the war between Turkey and Italy the situation in the Balkans might have been described as an unstable equilibrium. It was like a scene in some burlesque melic on the stage, when the sword of each actor is at another's throat, and yet none of them cares to be the first to strike. But such a state of things cannot last indefinitely, and in this instance the Turco-Italian War is the agency that has shifted the weights just enough to make an overbalancing of the whole concern seem inevitable. The change caused by the war is apparently acting in two directions : on the one hand there is the obvious reduction of the power of Turkey and on the other there is the less noticeable, but equally emphatic, weakening of Italian influence in the Balkans. These two currents might seem at first sight likely to move in opposite directions, and so perhaps to neutralize each other. But a closer examination of the facts shows that, on the contrary, the trend of both of them is the same—namely, towards the upsetting of the status quo in the Balkans.
It may be pointed out, first, that the internal outbreaks in Macedonia and Albania, which are annual events, are expected to be exceptionally violent this year. Though these troubles are not in themselves sufficient to cause a general eruption throughout the peninsula, yet they make such an eruption far more probable owing to their weakening of the resources of Turkey. But the crucial danger must be looked for not in the internal but the external enemies of the Ottoman Empire. The Balkan State which must be regarded at the present time as the most dynamic—as the most likely to take active or aggressive measures—is undoubtedly Bulgaria. With their extremely efficient army, well paid and well officered, the Bulgarians have not in the past been restrained from attacking Turkey by any sense of their own inferiority. And at a time when Turkey is engaged in a hopeless and clogging struggle in Tripoli this motive is even less likely to operate than before. They have only hesitated from a doubt as to the attitude that would be adopted towards them in such circumstances by the neighbouring States. All the information that is avail- able goes to show that King Ferdinand has been making the greatest efforts to overcome this difficulty, and there is much reason to think that he has succeeded. If this is so—if, that is to say, Bulgaria can manage to " square " all her possible rivals in the field—the probability of her opening a campaign against Turkey obviously becomes far greater. It is true that the Gueshoff Cabinet is peaceful and almost pro-Turkish in tendency ; but it may well be doubted whether the present Cabinet is more than a stop- gap. Taking Bulgaria's neighbours in succession, we may begin with Rumania, who, with an army the next most powerful in the Balkans to that of Bulgaria herself, would make a formidable antagonist. But Rumania has apparently come to some agreement with Bulgaria, and also with Austria. How long these agreements are likely to last may be doubtful ; but it is enough that for the moment they exist. From Servia the Bulgarians have nothing to fear. That unlucky country is at the lowest ebb of her fortunes. She is overshadowed by Austria, against whom her army is too weak to be of use, and she is without friends. A telegram from Belgrade in Monday's Times shows that she has been deserted even by Montenegro, who seems at last to have thrown in her lot with Austria. The new entente between Bulgaria and Greece has been much commented upon, and a seal is put to it by the visit of the Crown Prince of Greece to Sofia, to take part in the festivities that are now taking place there. We see, then, that Bulgaria can afford to despise Servia, and has reached friendly terms with Greece and Rumania, while the latter of these, as well as Montenegro, has effected a rapprochement with Austria. From the Bulgarian point of view, thou, Austria holds the key of the situation.
What possibility is there that these two countries have come to an understanding P Any prospect of an immediate Austrian advance into the Sanjak of Novibazar, and so into Albania, has hitherto been rendered extremely unlikely owing to the position of Italy. Italy has always had close interest in the countries on the further side of the Adriatic, and would have been most unwilling to allow of any aggression being made upon them by Austria. Now, however, we reach the second of the effects of the war which we mentioned above. Owing to her occupation of Tripoli there can be little doubt that Italy is precluded, even if she any longer desired to do so, from enforcing any claims that sho may have had upon Albania. She has hitherto held Austria iu check, but that check is now removed, and there seems nothing left to prevent Austria from making suitable terms with Bulgaria in the event of Bulgarian aggression upon Turkey. Are we to suppose that any objections to such an arrangement would be made by Germany ? We cannot believe so, unless she is more anxious than seems probable to maintain her influence at Constantinople— an influence which is in any case fast declining. One other Great Power is closely concerned in events in the Balkans, and that is Russia, whose action in stopping her subsidy to Montenegro has just forced that county into Austria's arms. Not the least obscure part of the Balk= situation is the question how Russia would act in the event of a general assault upon the Turkish provinces. Finally, we must add a word as to our own attitude. We have no hesitation in saying that it must be one of neutrality. We are of course extremely anxious that a, conflagration should, if possible, be avoided. But if it should take place we shall clearly best serve the interests of peace and of Britain if we resolutely refuse to take any share in the dispute. It is not naturally our business and we should be most unwise to make it so.
Of course it is always possible that the situation, though it looks so alarming, may in the end find a peaceful solu- tion. Things have seemed even blacker in the past in the Balkans and yet nothing has happened. Besides, there is always the chance that the very complexity of the problem may prove a source of safety. When it is darkest men instinctively stand still or move very slowly.
Previous page
