DANGER FROM THE EAST
[To the Editor of TILE SPECTATOR.]
SIR,—The Mongol invasions of the Middle Ages reached to the walls of Vienna and to the walls of Jerusalem. Mongol influence is seen in pottery excavated in Persia, and the Persian Treasury still uses the Mongol Year in the estimation of its budgetary deficiency or surplus. Chenghiz Kban and Tamerlane (Amir-i-Taymoor) are still household words, recalling the terrible destruction of the Cherasmian Empire and the sack of cities such as Samareand and Bokhara. The venue of these invasions was by the Tarim basin of Central Asia, which is still the route of caravans coming from China, Mongolia and Manchuria, and, strategically, the link between East and West, To the Mongol and Mandehu Dynasties, which have ruled over China and disposed of its wealth, there seems likely to succeed a quasi-Mandehu, which at a propi- tious moment may metamorphose itself into a Japanese dynasty, disposing firstly of the resources of Japan, Korea, the three Manchurian provinces of China, later of Inner and Outer Mongolia and of China itself, with the prospect of sea and land conquest, unlimited in extent and direction, open before it : whichever it may choose. That is the reality which faces us behind the temporization of the virgin diplo- mats of Geneva with their unlighted lamps.
Without doubt the Japanese aim at an eventual Empire of the Pacific, but since this entails that they fight America sooner or later, their first move—now in progress—is the consolidation of their power on the Asiatic mainland, and this can only be considered impregnable when they shall have succeeded, by the stealthy usurpation of the northern Chinese dominion, in suddenly casting the Imperial Japanese mantle over China proper, for which an almost perennial opportunity offers itself in the culpable preoccupation of Europe in its petty hatreds, jealousies, revenges and debts.
To most Europeans—even now—it is astonishing that the Empire of Kublai Khan stretched from the East China Sea to the gates of Vienna. Consequently, it insist seem incredible that any such situation can recur. But if possible in the then state of military engines and transport, how much more easily possible now ! Certainly we shall be likely to admit that the Japanese, once given the golden opportunity, could direct and consummate Well an effort, amounting to World Empire, as the military and naval subjugation of Asia and the Pacific. It is precisely in an opposing unpreparedness for resistance that the opportunity for Empire, almost over- night, discloses itself ; and there is no disposition at the present moment, either on land or sea, which is likely to put a spoke in the quietly pursued plans of the Japanese war party, beyond the accidental or providential circumstance that America has kept clear of the League, and is therefore free to act on her own judgement at a moment's notice.
While the nations of Europe are squabbling like Greek clans in the face of Sofia and Roman legions, Japan is quietly counting the chances of a successful coup. The opposition of Spain, France and Holland did not prevent the British Empire from materializing out of the crash of battle. The Japanese are not animated by any other spirit than that which led to the acquisition, by European nations, of the colonial empire of the world. If, as a Europe united in itself and with America, we desire to retain that hegemony, we CUD afford the participation in it of Germany and other excluded European nations, and by settling matters amicably in Europe leave ourselves free to face the difficulties which, on the fringe of the Pacific, must soon beset us.
Europe cannot share its sceptre with a Mongol horde. On present showing it may lose the sceptre outright.—I am,
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