THE END OF THE DUTCH ELECTIONS.
THE objection to prophesying unless you know has been unexpectedly justified by the result of the Dutch Elections. Up to the day of the second ballots there was a curious unanimity of vaticination. The Catholics were sanguine of victory by means of their alliance with the Anti-Revolutionaries. The Anti-Revo- lutionaries were equally confident that the combination of Calvinism and Catholicism would be irresistible. The Liberals had accepted defeat beforehand. The Historic Christians were an untried party, and in calculating their chances they displayed the modesty proper to an untried party. All the predictions went to show that the united strength of the Catholics and the Anti-Revolutionaries would destroy the Liberal majority which dominated the last Parliament, and give the coalition the opportunity of at all events trying their hand at forming a Ministry. The breakdown of the whole scheme seems to have been largely due to over-confidence on this latter point. The leaders of the coalition dealt quite fairly by one another. M. Schapman, the Catholic priest, and M. Kuyper, the Protestant pastor, were equally zealous in proclaiming one another's virtues. The burden of every Catholic exhortation was the duty of voting for an Anti-Revo- lutionary Protestant if no Catholic was in the field. The burden of every Protestant exhortation was the duty of voting for a Catholic where no Anti-Revolutionary Pro- testant was in the field. But the Catholics, according to the Journal des Debats, allowed their satisfaction at this state of things to get the better of their discretion. They put out imaginary lists of the coming Ministry, and in framing them they were careful to give the Catholics a majority of places. They declared that they would no longer content themselves with supporting a Government friendly to Catholics, they meant to have a Government which should largely consist of Catholics. So far as the Protestant leaders were concerned, this prospect seems to have had no terrors for them. They honourably stood by their pledges, and did all in their power to bring their followers to the poll. To the poll, indeed, they were quite willing to come ; the proportion of electors actually voting 'was unusually large. But the obedience of the Anti- Revolutionary rank-and-file went no further. They voted in great numbers, but they did not vote for the candidates of the coalition. The 15 Liberals returned at the first ballot grew into 49, while the 22 Catholics remained 22, and the 13 Anti-Revolutionaries only became 21. The whole result of the Elections, therefore, is a comparatively slight modification of the previous distribution of parties. In the last Chamber there were 60 Liberals, and 40 Catholics and Anti-Revolutionaries. In the new Chamber there are 49 Liberals and 43 members of the coalition,— the seats lost to the Liberals being distributed between the Historic Protestants and the Socialists. The expected victory of the coalition has turned out to be, in the strictest sense of the term, a purely "moral" victory. They have slightly damaged their opponents, but they have done no appreciable good to themselves.
Although this conclusion was wholly unexpected, it can- not be regarded as unnatural. The test to which the party allegiance of the Dutch Protestants was subjected was one of unusual severity. Catholicism has always been a word of fear in Holland, and the empire of a name is often much more lasting among the members of a party than it is among the leaders. Pastor Kuyper is no doubt satisfied that the objects he has in view can only be attained by a coalition with the hereditary enemy, and it is quite possible that he is right. In Holland, as elsewhere, Rome stands for two things, which may be distinct or identical, according to circumstances. She stands sometimes for political supremacy, and for the conduct of public affairs in the special interests of the Papacy. Sometimes, again, she stands for the conduct of public affairs in the general interest of religion; she asks only for what she is ready to share with others. Which of these opposite ideas is identified with the Dutch coalition we shall not pretend to say, though the conditions of Dutch history, the resolute and inflexible character attributed to Pastor ICuyper, and the hearty co-operation of the Calvinistic clergy certainly point to the latter as the more probable. But the former view is far more likely to be taken by the mass of Dutch Protestants. They are not profound reasoners. They are not skilled in noting the contrast between the meanings of the same word at different times. So far as they have followed their leaders in their new departure, it has been probably with much hesitation and uneasiness. They must have felt that they were abandoning all their traditions and making terms—and those not specially good terms either—with a Power which they and their fathers have &ways been taught to distrust. Men in this state of mind will be slow to part company with their leaders. For a long time they will listen in apparent acquiescence to their appeals. But when it comes to the actual vote, when the noise and excitement of a public meeting is exchanged for the quiet of the polling-booth, and they see side by side on their voting-paper the names of a Liberal Protestant and an Anti-Revolutionary Catholic, it will be strange if they do not vote for the Protestant. It may be, they will say to themselves, that the Liberals are enemies of religion as well as of Popery. But we are strong enough to accept their alliance where it promises to be valuable, and to reject it where it promises to be hurtful. We shall go with the Liberals just so far as we are inclined, and no further. We shall use them while they serve our purpose, and throw them over when they ask us to serve theirs. For the moment, what we are really afraid of is Rome. We see that she has won over our leaders, and we have no wish that she should exert the same fascination over us. We believe that a Government in which the Catholics have an equal, if not a predominant, voice will be a Government which will want to have Holland represented at the Vatican and to give the policy of the Queen when she comes of age a character with which Dutchmen have been long unfamiliar. We see no reason for making a change so violent and so far-reaching, consequently we shall vote for the Pro- testant candidate without troubling ourselves about his opinions on other matters.
The Anti-Revolutionary Protestants were probably con- firmed in this resolution by the appearance of a new political organisation, the "Historic Christians." We presume that " historic" is here used in a strictly local sense. Dutch Christianity has always been violently anti- Roman ; therefore it must for ever remain anti-Roman. This, at all events, is the practical reasoning of the new movement. Its object is to unite the scattered elements .of Dutch Protestantism on the traditional ground of hostility to Rome and to any alliance with Rome. In. comparison with agreement on this head political differ- ences count for nothing. Whether a candidate calls himself Liberal or Anti-Revolutionary is a matter of very small moment by the side of the fact that he is a Protestant. This new party wisely ran but few candi- dates of its own. Had it done otherwise they might only have drawn away votes from the party on the success of which the defeat of the Catholic-Calvinist coalition depended. The " Historic Christians" took the wiser course of voting themselves, and urging others to vote, for the Liberal candidates. Liberalism, however objectionable it may be in other respects, is at least sound on the point of greatest present importance,—the over- throw of an unrighteous alliance between rival religions. The immediate effect of the Elections cannot easily be predicted. Ministers have resigned, presumably on the ground that they do not command a majority in the Chamber. But their successors will find the task equally hard. You cannot do much with a Chamber in which you have only a moiety of the total vote, and this is the posi- tion of the Dutch Liberals on the morrow of their victory. But the question of most real interest is, what will become of the coalition ? Will they work together in opposition as they looked forward to working together in office, or will the irritation incidental to unlooked-for defeat lead to mutual recriminations, and to the resumption by the Catholics of that independent position which has so admirably served their purpose in Germany ? Either way, Holland seems destined for some time to come to furnish an additional example of the reviving influence of religion in political affairs.
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