Skinflint's memory
Sir: I regret that Skinflint does not look at the back numbers to refresh his memory — particularly September 23 and December 30. When he bet me El that the
index would sink to 450 before it hit 550 it was early in May last when the index was 520. It rose to 543 on May 19, which proved that he was wrong in thinking that the bull market was over. Later in July it sank to 480, recovered to 537 in August, receded to 462 in September and then recovered, finishing the year at 505. So on December 30 I wrote that his bet was lost when the year ran out. Surely I had a right to fix a time limit to a bet of this sort? On January 6, 1973, I came to the conclusion that the bull market had really ended and advised investors to cash in most of their profits. I believe now that the index could fall to 430. I never attempted to claim the El; I assumed that Skinflint would live LID to his name.
Nicholas Davenport The Athenaeum, London SW1
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