I have always felt that the prophets of ill who
have for years been predicting disaster to this country from a falling birth-rate have assumed too readily that the birth-rate would go on falling for ever. It appears that, in fact, it has stopped falling. In the last quarter of 1946 it actually rose, and was to per cent, above what was needed to replace the population, i.e., to keep it at or above its existing level. This is the first time that has happened since 1922, and it remains to be seen whether there is really a turn of the tide, which there is no warrant yet for assuming, or whether the rise is merely a temporary accident. In any case, the fall in the last twenty years will give us some years hence a relatively old popula- tion. The vital question is whether we can get back first to con- sistent replacement and then to steady growth. The next quarterly returns will throw further light on the trend.
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