RHODESIA
Over the border
ELIZABETH MORRIS
The fact that no nation so far has recognised the Rhodesian republic has let Portugal's premier, Dr Marcello Caetano, off the hook for the time being. Since it is now unlikely that South Africa and Rhodesia will pressurise Portugal into taking a decision, it is equally inconceivable that Portugal would take the initiative at a time when she is mak- ing every diplomatic effort to come to terms with black Africa. Over the whole Rhodesian affair not one official Portuguese word has been uttered, not a single government- inspired editorial has appeared in the press.
Last month saw the accreditation of the new Malawi ambassador to Lisbon, Mr Reid Willie Katenga-Kaunda, who is also High Commissioner in London. But it was Dr Banda himself who announced the imminent creation of a Bank of Malawi with 60 per cent of the capital provided by a Lisbon bank.
In Angola a black bishop, Dom Eduardo Andre Muaca, was nominated last month as Auxiliary to the Archbishop of Luanda. It seems likely that he is the first black bishop in Portuguese Africa, although mulattos have been known to achieve this rank. Trained in seminaries in Malanje and Luan- da, Dom Eduardo had worked hitherto in mission schools. So Mr Smith's recent tactics in Rhodesia and the new racialist climate can hardly please Portugal—indeed, the severing of Rhodesia's last links with Britain are thoroughly embarrassing. Portugal has con- sistently justified her opposition to sanctions by asserting that Rhodesia is Britain's ex- clusive responsibility.
But of all the embarrassments the greatest at the moment is undoubtedly the position of the Rhodesian mission in Lisbon—the only capital outside Pretoria where one exists. This mission was created by the former premier, Dr Salazar, whose devotion to the survival of white Africa was almost paranoiac. And although his successor, Dr Caetano, has so far shown no ambivalence regarding Portugal's role in Africa, he is a more enlightened man, and it is unlikely that he would have flaunted world opinion by such a positive step. As it is the status of the mission is undefined; the Rhodesian envoy himself terms his position 'diplomatic' and enjoys the privileges accorded to exiled
royalty, while the Portuguese refer to the sta- tion simply as a 'mission'.
Portugal probably imports around £l+ to £2 million annually of frozen meat, sugar and tobacco from Rhodesia, and Mozam- bique around £2 million of timber, vegetable oils and mineral products. Both Portugal and Mozambique buy considerably more than they sell although the latter does much better on 'invisibles'. Income from Rhodesian tourists in search of the sea and a trip abroad, money remitted by Mozambique Africans working in Rhodesian mines, and sales of electricity to Rhodesia from Mozam- bique's hydroelectric stations all contribute to Mozambique's balance of payments.
However, one of Mozambique's most im- portant 'invisibles' was the controversial 189- mile oil pipeline from Mozambique to Rhodesia constructed by an Anglo- Portuguese subsidiary of Lonrho, and which began pumping in January 1965. Since UDI eleven months later, the pipeline has been idle. The Portuguese claim that the loss of earnings from this source is in the region of £2 million a year. But the overall loss through sanctions is much higher. Normally receipts from Mozambique's railways and ports for handling Rhodesian imports and exports accounted for around half of Mozambique's national revenue. The set- back in this respect from the date of um up to June 1969 is assessed by the Portuguese at £28 million, and is the amount now being claimed in damages from the United Na- tions.
Logically, if Portugal observed sanctions the figure would be much higher. However there is little chance of this hap- pening. For if Dr Salazar and his Foreign Minister, Dr Franco Nogueira, are no longer in power, Dr Marcello Caetano and his new Foreign Minister, Dr Rui Patricio, indicate no change of heart. Dr Caetano is ostrich- like in his attitude to sanctions: they are simply not a subject for discussion. But with construction on the Cabora Bassa project now begun, a concentration of activity is being brought very near the Rhodesian fron- tier. Roads are being built, rivers bridged and railways extended. Before long Dr Caetano could face even stronger opposition than hitherto for providing yet another loophole through which traffic to and from Rhodesia can pass.
But more prejudicial to Portugal's future in Mozambique than mere accusations is the uncertain political climate in Rhodesia itself. Rightly or wrongly, Portugal is staking the future prosperity of Mozambique, and in the long term the strength of the escudo, on the completion of the Cabora Bassa dam. Even a mild political upheaval in Rhodesia could have serious repercussions on Cabora Bassa, which is only a hundred miles or so from the Rhodesian frontier. The menace to Portugal of an outbreak of guerrilla activity in eastern Rhodesia such as the Portuguese themselves are experiencing in the north of Mozam- bique cannot be underestimated.
At present the Smith regime cushions about one third of Mozambique's frontier against possible rebel attacks. African inde- pendence movements have so far been in- effective in Rhodesia, but the danger of sabotage, to which Cabora Bassa is ex- tremely vulnerable, cannot be ruled out. Raiding parties could be as well organised in nearby Rhodesia as from Tanzania in the north, and may even already have materialised. Seven men were reported killed at Cabora Bassa recently when a charge of dynamite exploded prematurely, and the number of lesser accidents seems to have been inordinately high.
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