POLITICS
A Presbyterian celebration as a tricoteuse goes into government
BRUCE ANDERSON
Belfast Momentous events often inspire momentous moods, but that has not hap- pened in Ulster. Instead, there is wide- spread wariness and uncertainty. David Trimble and some of his closest supporters did toast their success on Saturday, but the atmosphere was subdued. No question of triumphalism,' said one observer. More like a group of Presbyterians fully aware of the imminence of the Sabbath.'
It is hardly surprising that the celebra- tions were less than ecstatic. Mr Trimble had won a victory, but only over fellow Unionists, and only because many of those who did support him had spent anxious hours agonising about conscience and loy- alty before making a reluctant decision in their leader's favour. Nor has their reluc- tance been charmed away by subsequent developments. Unionists who supported the deal knew intellectually that it would mean Sinn Fein in government, but the actual appointments still came as a shock.
The health minister is to be Bairbre de Brun, who is entitled to a measure of sympa- thy in that she has been denied the chance to pursue her true vocation, and would indeed have been unable to do so at any time since the fall of Robespierre. Shc has the soul of a tricoteuse. As health minister she will, no doubt, visit hospitals where the casualties of IRA violence are still being treated. She will meet surgeons and nurses who tried to save the IRA's victims. It is asking a lot of such men and women to be civil to such a minis- ter. It will be interesting to see whether they can detect a sense of shame.
Worse still, Martin McGuinness is to be minister of education. He left school at 15, but assures us that over the past 30 years he has had 'a first-class political education'. It all depends what is meant by politics. In the early Seventies, the RUC were keen to question McGuinness, who was suspected of involvement in several murders, includ- ing one in which a retired army officer was tortured for several hours. Few if any Unionists believe that those suspicions were unjustified. What sort of a role model is this for Ulster's children? Sinn Fein is also committed to crude educational egali- tarianism, a fatuous irrelevance in a Province whose schools already provide the best state education in the UK. But it is not yet clear how much power these ministers will have. In theory, they will take over responsibilities from the relevant junior min- isters in the Northern Ireland Office. But their activities will be monitored by commit- tees of the new Northern Ireland Assembly, which will have powers to initiate legislation. To put it mildly, the Sinn Fein ministers are likely to encounter a great deal of suspicion both from the other parties in the assembly and, from their civil servants. This may restrict their ability to do harm.
Or, indeed, to do anything. When he was permanent secretary at the NIO, John Chilcot used to say that there had been a choice between effective administration and the peace process — and that his ministers had opted for the peace process. The North- ern Ireland Assembly and executive were designed to induce inveterate antagonists to co-operate. Even if the results of that co- operation were uninspiring in bureaucratic terms, it would have a therapeutic function: government by encounter group. But many Unionists have little stomach for such encounters. It is possible to believe that David Trimble was absolutely right and still be dismayed by the practical consequences of Saturday's victory. Such are the current ambivalences of the Unionist mood.
But at least there is one balm in Gilead. Sinn Fein are not rejoicing either. It has suddenly become apparent to the Sinn Fein leadership that the world now expects them to make progress with decommissioning, yet they are going to find it very hard to deliver it. Some of their leaders might wish to do so; one suspects that if the police suddenly became aware of the whereabouts of the IRA's armoury, Gerry Adams would not be heartbroken. The lure of elected politics is attracting some erstwhile gunmen and mur- derers; the pay and rations in the Northern Ireland Assembly are better than they are on the run, or in the Maze prison.
First, however, there will have to be decommissioning. Michael Collins was a much more formidable figure than Gerry Adams, but Collins broke with his own extremists and signed a treaty with the British. As he did so, he said that he was also signing his own death warrant. He was right. He was murdered shortly afterwards. Adams is aware of the precedents. The IRA has already virtually split, and the dis- sidents' numbers are growing, It is likely that within a couple of months IRA fac- tions will be murdering one another, as happened in the 1920s and in the 1970s. It certainly seems unlikely that decommis- sioning will proceed smoothly, and it may not happen at all. But if the IRA fail to deliver, there can be only one outcome. Mr Trimble believes that decommissioning will have started by February but if that does not hap- pen, he will walk away from the executive.
It is to be hoped that Peter Mandelson and his officials understand this. In recent years, the policy-makers in the NIO have come to regard themselves as a balancing mechanism. When Mo Mowlam was offend- ing the Unionists, they tried to offer surrep- titious reassurance, Now that Peter Mandel- son is in Stormont Castle, the officials are more concerned to sympathise with Gerry Adams's predicament. Partly because Mr Trimble is such an impressive figure, the NIO tends to assume that he will always win his party round. But that is not an assump- tion which David Trimble himself would make. He knows the Unionist party too well.
At least in one respect, the NIO is also in danger of overrating Mr Trimble. He is no glad-hander; patience has never been one of his vices. Faced by the need to con- ciliate his own supporters, he sometimes retreats into fatalism, declaring that he will put his case and then abide by, the party's verdict. It would be unwise to take it for granted that Mr Trimble's intellectu- al mastery will always translate into party management.
That said, the main question now in play is so fundamental that it transcends party management. If there is no decommission- ing by February, the executive will collapse.
This is where Mr Mandelson has a cru- cial role. After the Good Friday Agree- ment, all momentum was lost. Mr Blair did nothing to bring about decommissioning, while Dr Mowlam never gave the impres- sion that she took the problem (or anything else) seriously. It is unlikely that Peter Mandelson will make the same mistake. Not only is he good at taking things serious- ly; he is also aware that his own reputation is now rising rapidly among serious people, and he is enjoying it.
He also knows that his party is not full of potential foreign secretaries. To everyone's astonishment, Robin Cook has recently become a cock-up-free zone. But how long can that last? A few tons of guns and explo- sives might be all that stands between Mr Mandelson and his formidable ambitions. That is a reason for cautious hope.
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