No expert on South Africa
From RW. Johnson Sir: Reading Ronald Segal's review of my South Africa: the First Man, the Last Nation (Books, 13 November) caused me to think back to 1993-94, when I was involved in a large-scale programme of survey research in the run-up to South Africa's first democratic election. Late in 1993, Segal phoned me from England and told me that he was coming out to the Western Cape where he would take charge of the ANC's election effort and make sure the party won that province.
I cautioned him that the Western Cape ANC was deeply split between its black and brown components and that there was no possibility whatsoever that a white who had lived abroad for over 30 years would be allowed to come back and assume its leadership. Moreover, I added, all the polls we had done for months past showed that a majority of coloured voters were implacably opposed to the ANC, which had, accordingly, no hope of winning the province.
Both these objections he waved aside: he was sure his superior leadership qualities would be recognised and also that he had enough pull around Cape Town to turn the situation round. It would greatly help him in these tasks if he could have free access to all our survey data. I responded that we were making our research available to all parties as a service to the new democracy and therefore sent him everything he wanted.
Segal soon found he was unwanted as a leader and also that the coloured vote was not to be shifted. Accordingly, he took to writing increasingly angry letters to newspapers arguing that if coloureds dared to vote against the ANC, then it would be the worse for them and they would deserve any retribution which came their way. Unmoved, the coloured majority voted the way it wanted and Segal returned to Britain in a huff. He has never resettled here, which is just as well, for his antics in 1993-94 made him a figure of fun to many, both inside and outside the ANC. Nonetheless, he has, comically, continued to regard himself as an expert on South Africa. I will not bother to argue with his 'review' of my book, for he has clearly not understood it.
R. W. Johnson
Cape Town. South Africa
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