A SPECTATOR'S NOTEBOOK
ESTIMATES of the duration of the war have no excessive value; psychological and other incalculable factors play too large a part for reliable prediction to be possible. But lest the injection of Russia into the conflict should inspire unduly opti- mistic expectations it is worth while noting a declaration made in America on Saturday by Sir Gerald Campbell, who has just ceased to be British Minister at Washington in order to take over the organisation of British news in the United States. The planning, he said, speaking, of course, with full official knowledge, pointed to the autumn of 1942 as the moment when United States production would begin to reach full flood, adding, " it is not false optimism to believe that 1943 will see Germany on the defensive." Most people would fail to see any optimism at all in that belief. It would mean that this war, with its vastly accelerated tempo, would last as long as its pre- decessor. That, on various grounds, seems unlikely. However, it is elementary wisdom to base all our plans on the assump- tion that the unlikely may happen.
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