VIEWS OF THE WEEK
No Dien Bien Phu?
THE arrival of the rainy season in Vietnam means that for the next two or three months American and South Vietnamese actions must
largely appear as holding operations. But they will be holding operations with a purpose. lf, when the skies clear, the South Vietnamese Prime Minister, Dr. Quat has managed to strengthen his authority and his forces have suffered no major military reversal, the American bombings of the North will resume in full and the pressure for Hanoi to yield to negotiations may become unstoppable.
This factor is clearly appreciated in the North. The Hanoi government seems to have convinced itself that the situation is now ripe for a Dien Bien Phu. Its continuing mobilisation of forces and their grouping in the South suggest that a major military victory is now their immediate aim. We can expect a few more actions like the one this week in Quang Ngai with the intention of elimin- ating crack South Vietnamese forces, and then the big battle somewhere in the area of Da Nang. Such tactics will be dangerous but not devastating. The parallel with Dien Bien Phu is a false one. Dien Bien Phu was in the middle of rebel-held territory, 200 miles inland and inaccessible to the French except by air. The French had neither the determination nor the resources to resist now possessed by the Americans. Now the Vietcong are forced to attack in Central Vietnam near the coast, with an American fleet patrolling offshore and the United States able to send in whatever reinforcements she chooses..
The Soviet missiles which have eventually arrived in the North do not greatly change the situation. They save a certain amount of Russian face but they would be useful only if the Ameri- cans were to attack Hanoi. At present they have no such intention. Similarly the more militant language now coming out of Peking by no means implies that the Chinese are ready to intervene. The reasons why China prefers to keep out of it are still valid. More likely her threats are an en- couragement to Hanoi to make full use of all the forces she has mobilised—to pursue in fact the aim of a Dien Bien Phu.
The Americans certainly have the ability and the resources to turn the tide. All depends now on whether the South Vietnamese have the will. Dr. Quat is making slow if tortuous progress in pro- ducing a more stable government which will con- tain a balance of regional and religious forces. His men are hard at work in the Afro-Asian lobbies. If he survives the next three months, the worst may well be over.
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