POLITICS
Mr Blair talked about hard choices.
He will have to make one
BRUCE ANDERSON But the arrogance is overlain by eupho- ria, which was, if anything, heightened by Peter Mandelson's reverse. There really is no gratitude in politics. Many of those who raised a glass to cheer his defeat would not be rejoicing at all but for his efforts. He was the architect of victory.
Mr Mandelson accepted, however, 'party conference' has now taken on a new mean- ing, for this is as much a party as a confer- ence. There could well be more champagne drunk per capita in Brighton this week than in Blackpool next week, much of it by peo- ple who would not have been seen dead at a Labour conference even five years ago, partly because they would have been afraid that they might not get out alive. Once notorious for embittered behaviour on all public occasions, the Labour party has come here joyful and triumphant. 'We've done it, we've done it at last,' they say to one anoth- er as they clink glasses. 'We've won; we've beaten the Tories.'
There is nothing wrong with revelling in victory, but there is a problem. Not only are the Labour acolytes still celebrating the election; they're still fighting it. They are full of the latest presentational triumphs: the good pictures of Tony and Cherie in church, the ecstatic reception for Tony's speech, Tony going to Moscow next week to grab all the Tories' headlines. To listen to them, one would think that a general election campaign was entering its final phase and that nothing mattered beyond this evening's television news headline. The Labour party has been transformed into a Tonathlon and seems much happier elec- tioneering than governing.
`Gouverner, c'est choisir', as Nigel Law- son once reminded John Major. Tony Blair would like us to think that he agrees with Lord Lawson, so he used the phrase 'hard choices' eight times on Tuesday, some of them referring to Europe; but Mr Blair gave us no indication as to how he will respond to the hardest choice of all which he will face as Prime Minister: the single currency.
As often happens in journalistic accounts of ministerial intentions, last week's reports that the government had decided in favour of British participation, and was about to hold a snap referendum, attributed clarity and coherence to what is still, in reality, caution and hesitancy. But the articles may prove premature rather than inaccurate. A number of factors are now impelling Labour towards the euro.
The first is personalities. Mr Blair has always been an ardent European. Mr Brown intends to go down in history as the most successful Labour Chancellor ever, who buried the party's reputation for eco- nomic incompetence by proving that the pound could march in step with the strongest currencies in Europe. Mr Brown also believes that a number of traditional Labour objectives, such as the regulation of the Labour market and the enhancement of the role of trade unions, will be easier to achieve through Europe than via domestic politics. That is also Robin Cook's view. He is one of many Labour party members who began the 1980s by regarding Europe as a bankers' conspiracy which could frustrate the hopes of British socialists, and ended the decade by regarding Europe as British socialism's last hope.
A second factor is a desire to entrench Labour's hegemony. A.J.P. Taylor described the modern Tory party as a coalition between the City and the mob. The 1980s version of that was a coalition between the tax-averse middle classes and the readers of the Sun. That appalled the Labour party, and though that coalition has now disinte- grated, many Labour supporters fear its re- emergence. That is why a lot of them want to change the constitution. They are in favour of proportional representation which, they believe, would guarantee an almost permanent anti-Tory coalition gov- ernment. But they also want to diminish Westminster's power, by devolution, by incorporating the European convention on human rights into British law and removing parliamentary control over large areas of social policy — and, above all, by enhancing the role of Europe. Hence the importance of the euro, for once the pound is abolished there would be an irresistible momentum towards federalism. Under these circum- stances, the argument goes, even if the Tories did return to office, they would find it impossible to be in power.
As he made clear on Tuesday, Mr Blair is attracted by all this. The 20th century has been dominated by Conservatives, he declared; he wanted the 21st century to be dominated by radicals, by which he means centrists. But there are two difficulties. The first, again, is personality. The PM is dis- covering, as Margaret Thatcher and John Major did before him, that a modern Chan- cellor is ex officio an over-mighty subject. All strong ministers want to run their departments with a minimum of interfer- ence, and chancellors, who do not tend to be appointed unless they are strong minis- ters, are no exception. But if a chancellor runs his department on his own, it means that he and not the PM is taking many of the crucial decisions on government policy.
Mr Brown has a small team of advisers whose first loyalty is to him, not to the gov- ernment. Whether by their 'what if' musings or deliberately, by flying a kite, they provid- ed the material for last week's story. They are a little embarrassed by the publicity. They were not unhappy for it to be thought that Gordon Brown was taking the principal role in the euro decision-making process. This will have irritated Mr Blair, but he has more important grounds for anxiety. A referendum campaign while his honeymoon is still blooming could reopen the Tory party's divisions on Europe; Mr Blair thinks that he would have a much easier time deal- ing with Austin Mitchell than Mr Hague would with Ken Clarke and Geoffrey Howe. But it could also help the Tory party to re- forge itself, riding into battle under the Union Jack — and the Cross of St George. Might this not be the issue which finally cre- ated English nationalism as a political force? There is a further consideration. If Mr Blair did win, would the euro work? Even if St George was not able to save the pound, perhaps George Soros would.
Amid the triumphalism in this town, everything seems possible. But as Lady Thatcher and Mr Major could remind Mr Blair, Europe is very good at turning prime ministerial champagne into vinegar.
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