Mark two of the beast
POLITICAL COMMENTARY
AUBERON WAUGH
It needs someone with Mr Crossman's infallible common touch to know that what the country is yearning for above everything else at the present time is a Harold Wilson Cabinet Mark Two. Others may have drawn different con- clusions from the voters of Dudley, but to Mr Crossman at least it is plain that they were ex- pressing dissatisfaction with Mr Willie Ross's conduct of affairs at. the Scottish Office and with poor Mr Gordon Walker's record at the Ministry of Education. What voters really want to see is a Cabinet made up of people whose personal loyalty to the Prime Minister verges on the idolatrous. Then and only then will they tumble out of their council houses with excited little cries to vote for Labour, the party that cares.
Everybody knew that Mr Wilson was plan- ning a quiet re-shuffle of the Cabinet over Easter. Nobody was much concerned about it —except possibly those unfortunates likely to be involved—since the Prime Minister's obses- sion with the alleged disastrous consequences of Mr Macmillan's night of the long knives was well known. Perhaps Mr Willie Ross would be sent to govern New South Wales; Mr George Thomson would take over Scotland; Mr Gor- don Walker put on a pension and Mr Green- wood be put out to grass at Transport House.
None of these initiatives would be worth much space in a serious weekly political column such as this, and even in conjunction they certainly would not add up to anything so dramatic as a Harold Wilson Cabinet Mark Two. Even if all the various places were filled by Wilson toadies, the balance of power within the Cabinet would not be much affected, since all the important jobs would remain unchanged. If this is all that Mr Wilson has in mind, then Mr Crossman's utterance over the weekend, like so many of his utterances, appears inexplicable—at least within the twin disciplines of Christian charity and the laws of libel. But we know that Down- ing Street approved Mr Crossman's text, and the only conclusion to be drawn from this is surely that there is a surprise coming.
Could it be, one wonders, that when Mr Wil- son and his political advisers—Mr Crossman, Mr Silkin, Mr Kaufman, Mrs Williams—put their heads together to discuss the by-election disasters, they decided that what really kept the Labour faithful at home—in Dudley, Acton, Meriden and Warwick—was dissatisfaction with the Government's record in the field of defence? If the Prime Minister now feels him- self secure enough to ease his most formidable critic, Mr Healey, out of the Cabinet, then this will be a dramatic development indeed.
At any other time, the presence of Mr Healey with Mr Brown on the back benches would be unthinkable. Just now, the chance of a back- bench revolt is nil. With an estimated sixty-nine Labour Mrs to be returned by a general elec- tion held today, the office of Government Chief Whip is more or less redundant. Even on the left, where they talk in sentimental tones about not wishing to bring down the Labour govern- ment. I cannot trace more than twenty possible abstentions on the wage freeze. On the right, there is general acceptance that no back bench conspiracy to install Jenkins stands a chance, although Mr Shinwell's threat to resign from the Labour party in the event of such a plot certainly provided an added incentive.
Of course, Mr Wilson would be storing up trouble for himself in the future, if he allowed Mr Healey to sit on the back benches; but he might easily reckon that he is storing up enough as it is by allowing him to stay in the Cabinet. The principal danger in the present situation is a Cabinet revolt which might oust the Prime Minister without giving him a chance to threaten his barely credible ultimate deterrent of applying to the Queen for a dissolution. The fallacy that Mr Wilson can demand a dis- solution whenever he wishes is so deeply in- grained among Labour backbenchers as to be ineradicable, but Cabinet ministers are more sophisticated than that. And Mr Wilson is not the man to shrink from future danger when there is present danger to be shrunk from.
Mr Fred Peart has been canvassed as a likely successor to Mr Healey. Since there is no pro- motion open to Mr Healey and since he would not accept i step down, this could only be accomplished by his resignation. It is hard to see exactly what Foot and Mouth Fred's quali- fications are for the important Ministry of De- fence. As a dedicated anti-Marketeer, he might introduce a novel approach to our defence policy at present concentrated on Europe. No doubt Chiefs of Staff would rally to the defence of our Channel ports, if called upon to do so. Perhaps his drastic treatment of cows and pigs in the Midlands is a recommendation. The Labour party has always regarded defence as a sacred cow of government and nearly all our sacred cows have foot and mouth these days.
It is strongly rumoured that Mr Crossman will be promoted to the titular rank of First Secretary, and it is here that the position begins to look serious. If Mr Short, the Postmaster- General, is moved to being Leader of the House, there could be no question of his work- ing with Mr Silkin, and Mr Wilson would dearly love to have Mr Silkin in the Cabinet— either as Paymaster-General or as minister without portfolio. And it seems by no means impossible that Mrs Castle will be given the Department of Economic Affairs. None of these appointments would have the slightest im- portance if they were not also accompanied by the disappearance of Mr Healey. Nobody has any objection to the Prime Minister's sur- rounding himself with a private court of buffoons and toadies but when he starts intrud- ing them into important Cabinet posts at the ex- pense of those few Cabinet ministers with out- standing ability, then the time has surely come to stop making goodnatured jokes about it all.
In Mr Jenkins, Mr Crosland, Mr Healey, Mr Gunter, yes, even in Messrs Callaghan and Stewart, too—there is still the nucleus of a com- petent and effective government. If Mr Wilson contrives to pick them off one by one, it will be the fault of Mr Jenkins for allowing him to do so. The present concordat between Mr Jenkins and Mr Wilson allows the Chancellor completely free rein over Treasury affairs— which means control over all aspects of gov- ernment spending, too—in exchange for which Mr Jenkins is not expected to interfere in any- thing else.
Since coming to power the only act of political self-indulgence Mr Jenkins has allowed himself has been to launch into a vicious attack on Mr Heath at the end of the Budget debate. No doubt the temptation was too great; such a succulent peach can't expect to remain uneaten indefinitely. But if he allows Mr Wilson to winkle out non-Wilsonite members of the Cabinet while he is busy digging for victory and export-led expansion, Mr Jenkins will find that he has also dug his own political grave. Mr Wilson's only possible policy now is to lie low, wait for Jenkins's economic policies to work, then catch him in some unpopular Gait- skellite pose for the coup de grace.
If Mr Jenkins persists in ignoring the danger to other Cabinet ministers in his somewhat priggish insistence that he and the Prime Minister are a united and happy team, he will find himself naked and alone when the Wilson- Crossma n-Shore-Silkin crowd draw their knives. Of course, he has only the nuclear de- terrent of his own resignation to deploy, but this is surely a time for him to wave it around a little. One may doubt whether Mr Wilson is temperamentally capable of lying low for eighteen months, but that is his plan—relying upon Mr Heath's lack of allure, the success of Mr Jenkins's policies and a mild pre-election consumer boom (accompanied perhaps by the well-timed political assassination of Mr Jen- kins) to narrow the present huge gap between the parties. In his optimistic moments, he feels confident that Labour will win the next election, although with a reduced majority.
Mr Heath's role in this scheme of things may seem a fairly humble one, but there is no evi- dence that he shrinks from it. Lord Beaumont pointed out in a speech on Tuesday that the Tories could bring the Government down any time they chose to do so—by blocking Govern- ment Orders in the House of Lords. Unlike Bills, these Orders stay blocked, and since the country is now largely governed by Orders, the Government would be hamstrung. He pointed out that the Lords have nothing to lose, since they are going to be reformed out of meaning- ful existence, and Mr Wilson could scarcely hope to get away with 'Peers versus People' as the main issue in any general election which resulted. But the Conservatives have shown no inclination to take such a radical initiative; and now that it has been suggested by the chairman of the Liberal party, they will probably regard it with cold horror.
But that is not all Mr Heath can learn from the Liberals. The idyll of Mr Thorpe's proposal in the restaurant at the top of the Post Office Tower—no doubt after the coffee, as they spun sedately above Tottenham Court Road— touched a chord in many a Tory campaigner's heart; and for Conservative womanhood the poignancy and the suspense must be well-nigh unbearable. Conservative women celebrated the half-centenary of female suffrage this week with an encouraging message from Mr Heath: `Largely through the influence of our women members the Conservative party has in the past identified itself with the needs and aspirations of women all over the country. Therein lies their success.' Throughout the whole party there is a feeling that it is high time Mr Heath tele- phoned to book a table on the daunting heights of the Post Office Tower.
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