The War Surveyed LIBYAN VICISSITUDES
By STRATEGICUS
IT is now evident that the battle in Libya can only be described in detail with the almost complete certainty that the account will be accurate only for the moment, and wrong when it is read. There is no parallel for the sort of struggle that is being carried out in this area. It has been stated that since the battle began over a fortnight ago it has ranged over an area of more than t,600 square miles. This implies that for the first time in this or any other war a true tank-battle is taking place, and the other arms are subsidiary. It may be that they are more subsidiary than they ought to be ; for although it sounds well to talk of "hard pounding," it is rare that such exchanges march with firm tactical handling. The captured German General von Ravenstein spoke of this sort of battle as a "tactician's para- dise," and such a conception does not leave any sort of room for the exchange of heavy blows. Indeed, it is evident that there are certain elements of equipment that have not yet come to their own. It would be quite useful to destroy the enemy's tanks, for instance, if that process could be carried out by some other agency than our own tanks, or if our own tanks could remain immune from damage. Exchange, in this case, is the worst sort of robbery.
General Rommel has secured a distinct success, local it may be, temporary it is certain to be ; but he won it as much by the boldness and skill of his handling as by "hard pounding." He has cut the Tobruk corridor, and by so doing he has to a considerable extent nullified an advantage which, temporarily enjoyed, must gradually have had a decisive influence on the development. Supply was indicated by von Ravenstein as one of the critical factors of the battle ; and, while Tobruk was in organic communication with our main force, it could not fail to simplify the whole problem. For the moment we have lost that advantage, and it seems that we must take a new view of General Rommel's plans. Can we any longer, for instance, think that he has been using the second phase of the battle merely to break out to the west? Such a conclusion appears to ignore the facts of the case He has been attempting, like the bold and enter- prising soldier he is, to defeat the attack upon him ; and although he has lost much ground, many positions, much material, and many men, he has contrived, so far, to avoid defeat, and score a success against a stronger opponent.
When the t5th armoured division was found to have made its way through to the west, and began to attack from that quarter, our tactical position at once showed signs of weakness. The 15th division could have made its way to Benghazi, under peril, of course, of being cut off by the forces which General Auchinleck has already placed in position for such a move ; but Rommel's intention was to use it to attack from that side in conjunction with an assault by the rest of his tank force from the east. This seemed to be obvious on Monday, when it was known that the t5th division was attacking from the west. Whatever the bravery of the Imperial troops, and the weight of the British tank-force, the corridor had to stand against a scissors-attack, and although it had been broadened it was not stout enough to resist such treatment. So, for the time being, the German tank-force is re- united, ours divided, and the clearing-up of the situation will probably be delayed.
It need not be thought that we have lost more than the local and temporary advantage. The frontier area is being steadily reduced. Rommel's communications are as weak and precarious as before. The force at Jab, in the desert, has evidently a more ambitious role than was at first thought ; and the patrols which have reached the coast between Agedabia and Benghazi are apparently sufficiently strong to bar that avenue of approach. We know that some supplies have been brought up by air. It is known that anti-tank guns, which are so much more economical to use for the destruction of tanks than other tanks, have been supplied to the Germans in this way ; but it is very difficult to think that this can be an adequate solution of the critical problem of supply. We still have our numerical superiority intact. We continue to have the advantage of immensely better communications. But we cannot fail to realise that there is probably some distance to go before we can harvest the victory that seemed within reasonable reach when General Cunningham made his brilliant approach-movement.
The offensive can now be seen to have its connexion with the rest of the battlefront. Gondar has surrendered, and with it the last foothold of Italian East Africa passes from Mussolini's hands.
The 23,000 prisoners who laid down their arms yielded to a force less than half as strong, and it is possible that some of the gallant troops who took part in the operations will find their way sooner or later to the Libyan front ; for, in spite of Mario Appelius' lament that Italy is again struggling against an over- whelming superiority in Libya, it does not seem evident that there is any significant superiority there on this occasion, and there certainly never was before. But General Auchinleck should feel reassured about his northern flank through the counter- offensive of Timoshenko. British ships have attacked and sunk supply-ships and transports in the Arctic seas ; it is said that German aircraft arid even troops have been withdrawn from Russia with the hope of turning the scales in Libya ; and now Russia has found the strength to hit back in a critical sector. The inter-connexion of the various fronts begins to take shape. In Russia the position before Moscow appears to have been so bad last week that there is a momentary breath of relief in the air at present. Hitler was obviously attempting to secure the capital by his new series of mass-attacks ; and he apparently gathered the weight for the fresh offensive by thinning the con- centrations on the other sectors. As yet the Leningrad sector has not been able to take advantage of this redistribution ; but Marshal Timoshenko has been receiving reinforcements, and it was reported some little time ago that he had reorganised his armies and was moving westward in the Donetz basin. There, however, the Germans officially boasted that they were inflicting "heavy and bloody losses" on the advancing troops. It was therefore more than usually surprising to find them suddenly ejected from Rostov. The movement by which this was effected was a direct attack upon the city ; but the effects appear to suggest much more than a local movement. Indeed, this is the first occasion that the Germans have had to admit withdrawing from a city of cardinal importance in their strategy.
The counter-offensive has shown sufficient weight to compel the Germans to fall back over thirty miles, and the advance of the Russian armies is continuing. The immediate blow fell upon General Kleist's force, and it is not the first time that this general has been roughly handled. It seems a little strange that he has kept his position, since he has been distinctly unfortunate since he has had to deal with Timoshenko. Yet it would be unwise to base our hopes too high upon this stroke, which has begun so well. The area in which it has been applied is one that is vital to the German strategy. If the Russian advance could be pursued across the northern shores of the Sea of Azov, it is clear that the Crimean venture would begin to take on quite another colour. This is the one direction in which the siege of Sevastopol could be decisively raised and the position of the Black Sea Fleet revolutionised. The whole Caucasian campaign hangs upon the continuance of the advance, and it is not the time of the year for fresh chances.
It is at least heartening that our ally has been able to administer this check to von Rundstedt, the ablest of Hitler's generals, and the army that had appeared to be capable of crossing to the Caspian Sea. That prospect has not altogether disappeared ; but it has grown dim, and the importance of this area is such that we must hope Timoshenko will be able to establish himself firmly to the west. The Allied communications run through this area, and a threat to them would not only be vital in itself, but would be gravely disturbing to General Auchinleck while he is engaged in the Libyan battle. In this way Timoshenko has afforded some relief, and given him a better opportunity to deal with the enemy forces confronting him.
The present position everywhere has the appearance of an intermezzo. The Libyan no more than the Donetz situation can remain as it is. The counter-attack has come in the Libyan region ; it is certain that it will appear in the Donetz. It would be too open a rebuff to be compelled to raise the Sevastopol siege, and even the temporary abandonment of the drive towards the Caucasus would have its repercussions on the world-situation. In fine, in two sectors of the immense battle-front the position has again become fluid where it appeared to have set in one direction. Yet, at least in Libya, it may even have changed again fundamentally before these lines are read.
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