WHY ALEX SALMOND WANTS TO LOSE

The SNP leader, argues Lain Martin,

would prefer a Labour victory in next year's Scottish elections

DONALD DEWAR is prone to black moods which cast him into a deep, Scottish gloom. When the mists descend over Don- ald, who it could be said is the best doom- laden minister the Church of Scotland never had, he takes on the appearance of an elderly curmudgeon.

In recent months, the Secretary of State for Scotland has begun to smile. It is not just that he has enjoyed a sprucing up in the sartorial department. Oddly, for a Cab- met minister who once personified the Pre-Ron Davies 'I am what I am' tendency, convinced the electorate could see beyond his soup-stained tie and thick-rimmed spectacles to a trustworthy old player, he has relished the make-over which came courtesy of advisers who told him in the summer he had to change his image. He now sports ultra-New Labour glasses with thin metal frames, sharper suits and crisp, White shirts.

His sunnier mood is because he thinks that he is about to beat the Scottish National party in next May's first devolved elections for the Holyrood parliament. His assumptions are probably correct, barring `What sort of idiots are taken in by all these adverts?' a dramatic collapse in Labour fortunes.

Based on a series of despatches from north of the border, the London political classes appear to have convinced them- selves that the Nationalists are set for a tri- umph and that the Union will be bust by this time next year. Much has been made of an opinion poll which claimed the SNP had a lead of 14 points. The survey was conducted in July, when Scottish Labour was a complete shambles rather than the partial one we are presented with now. It was also deeply unreliable, carried out with questionable methodology. Polling methods have since been refined and cur- rently Labour has a comfortable lead of eight points on the first-past-the-post ele- ment of the election and 11 points on the PR top-up vote, according to the Scotsman and ICM in late November.

But one indicator does not ring true. If all this is the case, why is the leader of the Nats not remotely depressed? Surely it should be cock-sure Alex Salmond's turn for a few dark moments? Far from it.

Lurking at the back of the minds of SNP strategists is the thought that it is not even in Salmond's interests to win next May. Of course, publicly such talk is greeted with derision by press officers and researchers at Nat headquarters in New Town, Edin- burgh. Political parties exist to win elec- tions, after all. For Nationalist activists, who have never enjoyed winning much beyond by-elections, a handful of seats at UK general elections and the odd raffle at quaint party fundraising events, this is the first contest in which they have any realistic chance of electoral success.

But the cleverest brains around Salmond — and their leader can be a wily fox himself — indicate in their more reflective moments that a longer game than that being played by Dewar is underway. From this far out, Scotland 1999 is starting to look like an election worth losing narrowly. There are eerie parallels with the 1992 British election which the Conservatives would have been better off forfeiting to Neil Kinnock. The ERM debacle and BSE could have been dif- faculties for a Labour government.

Labour has been the ruling class in Scot- land since long before 1 May 1997, for a generation at least. The nomenklatura which runs local government, trade unions, many great civic institutions and a large part of the media is looking more than a little tired. Four years of Dewar in coali- tion with some appallingly dull Liberal Democrats, (a Lab-Lib pact is the most likely outcome thanks to PR) should really bore and irritate voters, say Nat thinkers.

Already Labour's tacticians are much more worried about 2003 than next May. If that does not sound bad enough, think of the economy, stupid, say Salmondites. It is almost certain the UK Labour administra- tions will hit serious mid-term difficulties during the first term of a Scottish parlia- ment, 1999-2003. If economic problems worsen, First Minister Dewar may find himself taking terrible flak for Scottish job losses, but he will only be able to visit his friend Gordon Brown in No. 11 for tea and a whinge. Such a period as opposition leader would allow Salmond to step up his attempts to woo business and the estab- lishment, and tell them that they could live with independence. He was very smug about his recent fireside chat with the Prince of Wales over a dram.

Dewar is also considerably older than Salmond, 61 to the younger man's 44. Time may well be with the young pre- tender. Dewar will not fight for a second term and Millbank and No. 10 will be relieved enough if he manages one victory; they are not about to risk a second contest featuring Donald. Salmond hopes that he will then inherit the 'father of Scotland' mantle as a statesman capable of leading the devo-generation to full-blown indepen- dence.

And it is there that Scottish Labour's real problems begin. A horrifying reality is facing those perceptive enough in Labour to have noticed. With a few notable excep- tions, the most talented politicians of the younger generation hoping to go to Holy- rood are Nationalists. It partly reflects what is suggested by polls: 18-34-year-olds are far more likely to be pro-independence and consider themselves Scottish not British in huge numbers. It has been a gradual shift Labour seems virtually unable to address: this time we are wit- nessing the surge of a nationalism which is primarily cultural and not economic. For- get the cry of 'It's Scotland's oil!' from the 1970s and think instead of the extraordi- nary impact made by Mel Gibson's Holly- wood nationalism in Bravehear t.

From universities and student politics has emerged a generation of lawyers, economists, media folk and public-sector workers for whom Britishness means noth- ing. Those among them with political ambition and the beginnings of talent seem more drawn to the SNP. The candi- date for Argyll and Bute is Duncan Hamil- ton, 24, a former Harvard Kennedy scholar and debating world champion. Of course, `Salmond's babes' are for the large part still naive in the ways of government and power, but the party leadership hopes that four years as the official parliamentary opposition will teach such types a great deal about legislation, serving on commit- tees and parliamentary warfare with the `People's Party'. When I asked a govern- ment minister to name the great rising hopes of the Scottish Labour party aged below 35, he struggled for a moment before saying with a frown, 'No, you've got me there.'

There will also be the sheer shock of the sight of a large group of nationalists sitting together as a group at Holyrood. If Salmond does well but loses and becomes the leader of the opposition, he will have perhaps as many as 40 SNP MSPs seated behind him in the chamber. The only time most Scots have seen a group of 40 Nats together in one place is at a ceilidh. There is a theory that they will prove so unruly as to cripple Salmond, but Dewar will have his own concerns. Many of those being picked for the safest Labour seats are far from Blairite.

For now, Labour is throwing everything it has at the SNP — there have been visits and rip-roaring attacks on separatism from the Prime Minister, Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and Defence Secretary in this month alone. The might of the Labour electoral machine in the form of a mini- Millbank in Glasgow is being felt. The party has more money, more staff and a better grasp of sophisticated modern cam- paigning techniques.

It will probably work for 1999. But thanks to Dewar's Scotland Act, Labour will have to steel itself to do this every four years as well as fight UK elections. Until devolution, the SNP had no chance of reaching its goal, short of winning half the Westminster seats in a UK general elec- tion. Now it has a forum in which it will get a regular shot at victory. In essence, to keep Scotland in the Union for the next 40 years Labour, or another non-nationalist party, will have to win ten Scottish elec- tions in a row. To call that a tall order is something of an understatement. Labour's grandees, from Smith to Dewar, thought that devolution would kill nationalism in Scotland stone dead. It has not. Salmond's 'smart-Alex' smile should concern those interested in seeing the partnership between England and Scot- land prosper. More than that, if the smirk is to be wiped off his face by the Unionists they had better start by thinking of ways to make that Union appeal to a new genera- tion of Scots.

lain Martin is political editor of Scotland on Sunday.