TOPICS OF THE DAY.
1861: PROSPECTIVE.
lw one month from today Parliament will meet, to begin a career of beneficent work or one of weary and only not useless talk, which will probably last until the middle of August, and certainly to the end of July. Whether the Westminster harvest will be abundant or scanty, depends upon circumstances none can fore- see ; but even in their present quiet frame of mind, without one single subject dangerous to a Ministry in which they display an absorbing or moderately active interest, the public look for a richer crop than was garnered last year ; and Ministers will seriously mistake quiet for indifference if they hope to satisfy the nation with meagre instead of ample sheaves.
They have enjoyed an unusually peaceful recess. Not one question has kindled the flame of agitation. Mr. Bright's efforts have failed to produce even a sprinkling of meetings to promote Reform of Parliament. Almost wholly absorbed in foreign affairs, occupied with thoughts comprehending the future of Europe, and involved in it the future of England, anxious touching China, a little moved by the peril of the settlers in New Zealand, we have had hardly a thought beyond these things except for minor ques- tions of no party interest, like those of drainage outfalls and cot- tage accommodation. Lord Palmerston was never in a position so apparently secure. Lord John Russell, assailed, it is true, in some quarters, for his Italian despatches, has, on the whole, car- ried the national spirit along with him, and has gained more than he lost in popular estimation by his manly and outspoken letter to Sir James Hudson. Mr. Gladstone has hardly recovered from the effects of his direct taxation policy, but even he occupies a firmer place than he did in August ; and although he cannot be said to enjoy public confidence, yet there is no unwillingness to try him again. The Duke of Newcastle has acquired a new claim on the public by the tact and firmness of his conduct in Canada and the United States. The Duke of Somerset has proved to be an active and careful First Lord ; and Sir George Lewis, Sir Charles Wood, and Mr. Milner Gibson, have done nothing to imperil either them- selves or the Ministry. The Parliamentary vacation, in short, has rather strengthened the Government than otherwise.
But although the immediate past is smiling and cheerful, that is by no means the character of the immediate future. Parties are so evenly balanced, that a false step, an indiscreet word, a foolish speech may deprive Ministers of their majority. It is not to be supposed for one moment that Mr. Disraeli will be other than restless in Opposition. Whatever course they may adopt on any vital question, he is sure to take the other side. This would be however, matter of small consequence, if Ministers knew how ni satisfy the bulk of the thinking majority, and carry a thoroughly English spirit decisively into every broad question of home and
foreign politics. Whether they will be able to do this is the
question. Lord Palmerston has been ranch praised for his man- agement of the House of Commons. Hitherto he has succeeded by using as little as possible the power of coercion which every Minister possesses. Either from a consciousness of weakness or a dislike of sharp conflicts, lie has allowed measures to drift through or out of the House with almost equal fortitude. He has permitted his colleagues to prepare a heavy paper of agenda, and he has seen, with much equanimity, the items on which some of his colleagues set great store sponged out by the sure process of delay, and others just manage to escape the same fate by virtue of
priority of place. But he may be sure that the public will look with less and less toleration upon a practice which leads to more talk than work. There is a feeling abroad, that Lord Palmerston will need to drive the Ministerial coach next session with a tighter rein and a less infrequent application of the 'whip; that he must be less tolerant of obstacles interposed purposely to upset the coach, and very determined in his dealings with those patent drags who hang on behind. In these days, mere personal -liking will not keep a Minister on the box ; he must earn his living like other men, not only by hard, but fruitful work.
We are quite willing to admit that it is not easy to foresee what Ministers can do of all the things that are to be done. To find out that is precisely their business. They have to ascertain whether they can carry a reasonable Reform Bill in the teeth of a strong Conservative opposition. Any attempt to stave it off for the fifth or sixth time by proposineb to appoint a Select Committee, will surely throw upon them some discredit; yet the fact that the country does not imperatively demand a change and especially a democratic change, affords a pretext for this mode of shifting the burden of settlement on to the shoulders of 1862. Last session Earl Grey obtained a Committee in the House of Lords, and, it is whispered, Ministers would not oppose the appointment of a simi- lar Committee in the Commons, on the plausible ground that the Commons can neither ignore nor decently accept the result of the Lords' Committee. But if the Constitution of Parliament is to be referred to any select body at all, it is a question whether a Commission, composed of Members of both Houses, would not be the best tribunal. For our parts, having little liking for the elaborate and inconclusive machinery of Committees and Com- missions on a question of such breadth and depth, and dependent for a practicable solution far more upon sound judgment and safe pinions than upon any minute array of figures and facts, we should prefer to see the House of Commons hammer out a solu- tion of the problem for itself in the good old way. What is re-
quired is to ascertain and remedy the real grievances of the unrepresented and misrepresented ; and we doubt whether there is a surer way of doing that than the old one of proceeding by bill and debate, by oral and written discussion. It is for Minis- ters to decide ; if they do not decide at a time when the public mind is singularly without passion, they, or their successors, will have to decide when the first severe strain upon the material .eom- forts of the people has placed them at the mercy of demagogues.
There 19 another great subject of legislation—Law Reform, Law Consolidation—and it seems to be taken for granted that Ministers intend to make this the substantial element in their programme for 1861. A quiet session, undisturbed by faction fights over party questions, a session devoted to the amendment of the law, opens up a very fascinating prospect. But it is delu- sive. Even in commercial Britain, a Government and a Parlia- ment must do something more than mollify interests. The very existence of parties implies party warfare to keep them alive, and party warfare cannot be very keen and vehement in these days upon questions of codification or consolidation, bankruptcy, and civil and criminal procedure. Every strong Government must take account of the passions and sentiments of men, and a wise Government anticipates the demands of passion and sentiment before they arrive at white heat. Imperative as it is even the Reform of Bankruptcy Law cannot excite any national enthu- siasm. It is only Governments avowedly on sufferance, like that of Lord Derby in 1852, that can live upon the dry aliment of Law Reform. A Government which pretends to strength and inde- pendent existence must have a policy animated by a direct pur- pose, and intended to embody the whole public life of the nation.
Beyond the Reform of Parliament and the Reform of the Law,, lies the thorny question of taxation. We cannot believe that the Cabinet will be led away any further by Mr. Gladstone's recent infatuation for direct taxation. We are convinced that the pre- sent rate of direct taxation is only endured because the classes who have wherewithal to pay it, in addition to their quota of in- direct taxation and local burdens are profoundly impressed with the fact that, before all things, the realm of England must be made secure. We are making up now, not only for the short- comings of bygone days, but striving to place ourselves on a level with the colossal development of military and naval power in an allied and friendly nation. To do this, we are willing to pay in full; but Ministers will misinterpret the temper of the nation if they imagine that it will endure a heavy burden of direct taxa- tion after our defensive labours shall have been completed. The Government is called upon for a decisive policy upon these great subjects, Reform of Parliament, Reform of Law and Proce- dure, National Defence, Finance, and Foreign Affairs.
It would be hazardous to predict what the Opposition will attempt. We are not sure that the Opposition will meet Ministers. with an undivided front. It is matter of doubt whether the un- principled design of Mr. Disraeli to employ the supposed interests of the Church of England for party purposes has not deepened the split in the Conservative party which was faintly visible last ses- sion. Certain it is that Sir John Trelawny, whose tenacity is unquestionable will give them an opportunity of showing whether they be one, and indivisible, or not. In addition to Church-rates, we may safely predict that the Emperor of China, William Sing of Taranaki, the Orangemen of Upper Canada, the Sovereigns of Gaeta and Venetia, will find defenders on the left hand of the Speaker, and will be brandished as party weapons in the faces of the gentlemen on the right hand of the Speaker. Between Janu- ary and April, there may be another European collision, and what- ever line of action is taken by Government, Mr. Disraeli and my Lord Derby will certainly find fault with it. But so long as Ministers uphold those true and manly principles of action abroad, which are in unison with the sentiments of a generous people, they need not fear the efforts of the Opposition. Probably, Mr. Glad- stone's finance would furnish the safest ground for attack, and one that would ensure something like success—were Mr. Disraeli a sound financier; but called upon to choose between the magnificent temerity of Mr. Gladstone and the &rineb shallowness of Mr. Dis- raeli, the public would be wise enough to prefer the former. It is not the Opposition that Ministers have to fear in the coming session. In the present state of the Conservative party, led as it is by a politician in whom they have only a bastard kind of confidence, there will always be found men enough to make a majority upon all really sound measures. What Minis- ters have to fear is, Themselves. The composition of the Cabinet, forbids that absolute unity which gives vigour and purpose to the acts and policy of a government. Every measure of moment must be a glaring compromise. The Manchester element must be sufficiently propitiated, or it would again seek to become what the Irish Members once were—the nemesis of governments ; and if Mr. Disraeli is again blessed with the power, glory, and pud- ding of office, it will be because the majority of the Cabinet resolve upon some line of policy, which will throw the Manchester con- tingent into opposition, and enable it to play once more the game it played in 1858. We do not look forward, therefore, to the coming session with much confidence, because we doubt whether a Cabinet so peculiarly constituted as that of Palmerston's is, can adopt a broad, definite, national, and generous policy at home and abroad. At best, we fear' they will only be able to drift through the session, doing that business which cannot he preter• milted, and doing little more.
Previous page
