TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE DRIFTING IN EASTERN EUROPE.
EVERYTHING drifts in Eastern Europe, and the 'J drifting is all one way. The soldiers and clericals who surround the Sultan believe, possibly on evidence, but at all events believe, that the German Emperor will forbid the Concert to adopt measures of coercion, and have, therefore, decided to keep Thessaly until they are turned out. It is not, it is true, probable that they have asked the Sheik-ul-Islam for a Fetwa. or Bull declaring the retrocession contrary to the Sacred Law, for as Thessaly was ceded in 1881 during a time of peace that would be a little too absurd ; but they refuse even to discuss the proposal to give it back, they accumulate troops in Europe, and they act in Thessaly itself as in all ways owners of the province. They have summoned all fugitives to return under penalty of the confiscation of their property—a new version of " Dilly, dilly, come and be killed "—they have imposed the Sheep-tax, a specially Turkish tax, and are trying to farm it to contractors ; and they are organising the civil administration of the province upon the regular Turkish lines. They are collecting great stores at the ports sufficient to feed their army for weeks, and they are straining the resources of their arsenals to provide their divisions with munitions for a great campaign. All these things look like final determination, as also does their readiness to negotiate insteal of putting off the day of negotiation, as they would do were there any serious difference of opinion within the governing group. The Ambassadors are evidently uneasy, and Constantinople is said to be full of men who openly declare that God has allowed Islam to revive, and that if the Sultan gives back Thessaly he cannot be sincerely a Mahommedan,—a very ominous opinion. There is a stir perceptible in Egypt and at Mecca, and it is asserted that great Sheiks are arriving from the " Hinterland " of Tunis and Algeria, all brimming over with hope that the Sultan, as a victorious Khalif, will give them assistance in turning out the French, who are audibly and specially cursed in the very precincts of the Palace. All that means mischief, for it must not be forgotten that, although in every Mahommedan country the Sovereign is despotic, there are three classes whose opinion, when it is definite, he never disregards. These are the soldiery, the Ulemas, or as we should say, the clergy, and the fanatical section of the common people, and these three are just now in Turkey all of one mind. They cannot see why, as the Sultan has conquered Thessaly, be should give it up again, and regard the interference of Europe as either impudent or dictated, as the Grand Vizier said, by enmity to Turkey. They are even alleging that, as the Powers have not quieted Crete, they will quiet it, and keep the island for their pains.
Under these circumstances, how is the Sultan to be compelled to recall his army ? He will not yield to mere menace which he believes will not be a prelude to action, and the application of force will be a most difficult, if not dangerous, enterprise. We do not believe that the Concert will agree to attempt it any more than they did after the massacres in Constantinople, and the separate Powers are all afraid that if they act by themselves there will be war. At the same time, the Russian Emperor cannot put up with so clear a defeat from one whom his subjects regard as the secular enemy ; France will be seriously disturbed by any prospect of alliance between her Hinterland Sheiks and the Sultan, which might compel her to double her garrisons in North Africa ; and England is willing to make considerable efforts if sure that Russia and France are honestly on her side. Under these circum- stances we look to see the negotiations excessively pro- tracted, and then at last to be hurried on by an ultimatum, not from the Great Powers, but from Bulgaria. That little State controls two hundred thousand very fair troops, she is very close to Constantinople, and she is acutely desirous of obtaining her half of Macedonia. If sheltered by Russia and Great Britain she would not be unwilling to try conclusions with the Sultan, and sbe could almost certainly, with Greek assistance turn Edhem Pasha out of Thessaly, which, in fact, with a Bulgarian army in the field, could not be held. Bulgaria has not been contented all through this war, for she promised to help Greece, she does not at all like to see a rendition of territory to the Turks, which might be made a precedent in Eastern Roumelia, and she has considerable confidence in her own fighting powers. The Government of Sofia has already been pressing for considerable favours from the Sultan, and we fancy that if M. de Nelidoff told the truth about a very recent request for the autonomy of Macedonia he would reply that hints are very often useful in diplomacy. There will be many disturbing rumours before the negotia- tions are complete, and if the Turkish Generals continue to demand Thessaly there may be some disturbing action, which will be nominally taken by Sofia.
The rumours about Crete are endless, but as yet the position of the island is worse than ever. The Concert is unable even to decide on measures of pacification, much less to begin carrying them out. No Governor. General has been appointed, no international force has been settled on, there is no agreement as to the money which such a force must cost, and which must be pro. vided from abroad. The Turkish garrison has not been withdrawn, and the fierce Cretans, who know that if it is not withdrawn their lives are not worth having, show every disposition to attack the Mussulmans, and perhaps even the few troops of the Powers. There is not the slightest prob- ability that sanguinary disorders will cease until the counsels of the Concert are harmonious, and as they are never harmonious, the condition of the island would, but for its low civilisation, be quite desperate. Fortunately you cannot quite ruin herdsmen, shepherds, and vine-growers, whom you can neither kill nor tax, and consequently the real Crete will survive; but what a melancholy spectacle it is, a whole province with its life suspended because the six first Powers in the world, after undertaking to govern it, cannot agree upon so much as the name of its Governor or the nationality of its police. No one, even three years ago, could have anticipated such a scene. With Europe in motion it was reasonable to expect jealousies, blunder- ings, and delays, but no one dreamed that Europe would show itself absolutely incompetent to manage a village. The old German Diet was a working body compared with this Concert, for if two Powers agreed its decrees could be carried out in the teeth of the whole world. The Diet did, at all events, occupy Schleswig-Holstein, but the Concert only shells the edges of a corner of Crete by way of a hint to be quiet.
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