ANOTHER VOICE

The only salvation is to dump Thatcher and restore the rates

AUBERON WAUGH

When I suspended my service to Spectator readers four months ago, I had the impression that mine was a lone voice warning the Conservatives and their sup- porters that Poll Tax would put the final kybosh on any chance the Government had of being re-elected for a fourth term. Expert opinion was against me. The Spec- tator's political correspondent celebrated my departure with a piece arguing that a Conservative defeat at the next General Election was an arithmetical impossibility.

How could they fail to see it coming? It is distressing to find so much stupidity at the centre of political decision-making and discussion. Anybody who discussed the matter with any of Britain's 17 million non-payers of local government rates could see exactly how they would react when suddenly confronted by bills for f300-£400 apiece. Anybody who discussed the matter at all outside the tight, incestuous world of politicians and political pundits could see that it was a non-starter within our system of government. Now exactly the same level of pusillanimous half-think goes into long- faced discussions about whether the tax is really fair or not.

Of course it is fair. Everybody pays it. That is what fairness means. Even within the widely spread confusion between jus- tice and charity (in the sense of alms- giving) there is further confusion about who can or cannot afford to pay the tax. Very few people can afford to pay an unsolicited demand of £400 in the sense of being able to pay it without sacrifice. Many will have to postpone their purchase of a Sky satellite dish indefinitely, some may even have to cancel a foreign holiday. Within the 17-million odd who quite reasonably complain that they cannot afford it, there is a distinct percentage who can't afford it in the sense of not having the money at all. Common prudence, if not charity, dictates that they should be ex- cused. In a perfect world, the debate might then shift to the question of which local government rights and benefits these paup- ers might reasonably be prepared to fore- go, in acknowledgement of the fact that they had not paid for them: the right to vote in local elections? to use swimming pools? municipal parks and gardens? furth- er education? libraries? It is at this point that the alms-giving principle might inter- vene to alleviate the rigours of fairness. But we do not live in a perfect world, and the loud cries of 'unfair' from all the millions of people who have never paid a penny in local government taxes have had an unsettling effect on ratepayers whom the innovation was supposed to benefit. As Sir George Young put it, 'We have devised a system where the gainers feel guilty and the losers feel livid.'

He is right, of course, but guilt is a somewhat vacuous emotion. Its dynamic ingredient is insecurity, fear of being ex- posed and punished. One should always divide. professed opinions into the vacuous and dynamic — something which opinion polls never manage to do. It is fear of the consequences — a Labour government and general odium — rather than a feeling that ratepayers may have somehow fallen short in their charitable obligations which ex- plains why quite so many Conservatives now give it as their settled opinion that Poll Tax is unfair.

And let us make no bones about it, the consequences of Poll Tax in the form of a Labour government will cost us much more than we will save in rates. It would be possible to adopt it as a Noble Lost Cause, in the manner of Japan's Kamikaze pilots, and I was seriously tempted to do so after seeing Thursday's SDP Party Political Broadcast in which David Owen com- plained about how much he was saving on Poll Tax. 'That's not fair,' he drawled, 'I mean, is it?'

On reflection, I decided that although a noble cause, it was not quite noble enough to inspire great sacrifice. Instead, I shall once again offer the Government advice on how to get out of the mess. The ten options open to it were well summarised by Simon Walters, political correspondent of the Sun. Here they are, slightly modified for Spectator readers: 1. Scrap it and restore the rates. This would leave 17 million citizens in a position to vote themselves greater benefits which we have to pay for, but what the hell?

2. Levy it on a 'banded' system based on two or three wage levels. A sound princi- ple, but it creates disincentive among workers to jump a band.

3. Local income tax. Easily the worst solution. There are 13 million who don't pay income tax, and would escape it. An extra levy of 7p in the pound on earnings is bad enough, but poor people struggling to keep up two homes would presumably have to pay 14p in the pound extra. Unthinkable!

4. Universal capping. Might as well abol- ish local government. Just think what would happen under the next Labour government, when Town Hall loonies take over Westminster.

5. Treasury pay-out. This, I imagine, is what will actually happen. Councils will blow the money and we will have to pay through income tax.

6. Government could take over education. Same objection for income tax payers.

7. Extra refunds for the poor. Obviously necessary, but won't influence many of the 17 million.

8. More exceptions. Ditto.

9. Reduce minimum payments from 20 per cent to 10 per cent. Ditto.

10. A 'roof tax. Nobody is sure what it is, but it sounds both barmy and unpleasant.

Brooding over these ten suggestions, which were headed: '10 ways Maggie can help us like Poll Tax', I saw that there was only one possible solution which might allow the Conservatives to win the next election. The Sun's objection to the first suggestion — Scrap the Poll Tax and restore rates — was that `Mrs Thatcher's reputation would be destroyed by such a U-turn'. This leads me to my final recom- mendation. The only way the Conserva- tives can have the slightest chance of winning the next election is to dump Thatcher and restore the rates.

Nobody, it would appear, in top Con- servative councils has the faintest idea how deeply established are the resentment and terror of Poll Tax. No amount of tinkering with the sums involved will alter the fact that people are paying a tax who have never paid before. They will not forgive. Nor do many Conservative back-benchers have much idea how the country is fed up with Mrs Thatcher. She has become a disastrous liability, and nothing she does or says from now on is likely to change it.

When I went away in December I said it would be interesting to see what had happened by the time I came back. No- thing has happened. The situation is pre- cisely the same, and the Parliamentary Conservative Party is still too wet and terrified to do anything about it. Under the circumstances, I shall in future write for The Spectator only on a fortnightly basis.