THE " ORLEANIST REPUBLIC."
THE violet spectre has frightened the Orleanists into common sense. M. Laboulaye's motion of Thursday week, which directly affirmed the Republic, was lost on Friday, as we antici- pated, by a majority of 24; but the leaven was working, and on Monday the Assembly met in a new mood. The apprehensions entertained by the Orleanist chiefs, and so emphatically expressed by M. Laboulaye,—diffused themselves by degrees, as would appear from the gradual increase of Republicanism in the sub- sequent votes,—more widely. Those chiefs were well aware that the Bonapartists had received encouragement, whether well founded or otherwrse does not matter, from Marshal Canro- bert's letter, from recent elections, from the annoyance of the quiet classes at the sterility of the Assembly's debates, and from the efforts of the Tribunals and even of the Government to conceal the exertions of the Bonapartist Central Committee. It is stated, and this on grave authority, that papers were discovered in the course of an inquiry into some
election proceedings, showing that the Imperialists have formed a regular Cabinet, have appointed Prefects throughout the country—many of whom are already in power—have nomi- nated all necessary heads of Departments, have designated officers to commands, and have created, in fact, a complete Empire within the Republic. All these " nominees " are actively engaged in the work of propagandism, and await only the signal to be ready at their posts, to the duties of which the majority of them are thoroughly well accustomed. The existence of such an organisation, supposing it to be proved, demonstrates also the existence of a tacit conspiracy to conceal it, which must cover thousands of persons holding posts of trust; while, if it is disproved, the ready acceptance accorded to the romance indicates an uneasiness scarcely less dangerous than the conspiracy itself. Whichever is the true explanation—and we incline to the belief that the conspiracy is real, but is not of the proportions alleged—it is clear that the dread of Bonapartism has effected what all the arguments of M. Thiers, repeated for nearly two years, have failed to secure. The Orleanists have become convinced that they must throw in their lot with the Republicans, or run their chance of renewed exile and fresh confiscations.
Even on Saturday they had begun to hesitate, and a sig- nificant amendment, proposed by M. Wallon, a religious Conservative of the Left Centre, decreeing that " the President of the Republic is elected by the majority of votes obtained by the Senate and Chamber of Deputies acting as a National Assembly, is named for seven years, and is re-eligible," was actually carried in an unusually full House of 705 by 353 to 352. This amendment, it will be perceived, indirectly declared the Republic, inasmuch as it made the Presidency continuative, vested the right of election in the Deputies and Senators, and settled that question of re- eligibility which cannot arise under the personal Septennate till 20th November, 1880. This was thoroughly understood in Paris on Sunday, and although the minute majority threw an air of ridicule over the vote, it dispirited the Monarchists, till on Monday it became evident that the moderate section of that party had gone over in a body to the Republicans. The " Thirty Tyrants," as they used to be called, M. de Broglie's famous Constitutional Com- mittee, who have so nearly been forgotten, recommended that the " Marshal-President " as an individual should have the power of dissolution, and that the elections should be held within six months. On this, M. Wallon moved an amendment, that "the President of the Republic "- that is, the permanent officer as distinguished from the Marshal only—shall have the power of dissolution with the consent of the Senate, and that the elections shall take place within three months. To English ideas the former proposal was the more acceptable, as preventing the dead-locks which may arise should the Senate be obstinately opposed to dissolu- tion; but Englishmen do not dread coups d'e'tat, and the majority in the Assembly are intent on providing against that form of possible danger. They wish to make the Presidency continuous, which is done by the amendment, and they have learnt from the history of eighty years to dread the Head of the Executive power, whose autho- rity is limited, in appearance at least, by the necessity of asking for the consent of the Senate, and by the rapid re- assemblage of the Deputies. Accordingly the Orleanists sup- ported the amendment in speeches which openly acknowledged that the Republic was inevitable, and that their only anxiety now was to make it as Conservative as they could. M. Dufaure, the most Conservative of the Left Centre, and perhaps the strongest legalist in the Assembly, openly stated that the Republic "had been proclaimed," and approved the proclama- tion; while M. Luro, spokesman of the Right Centre, and avowedly a "Monarchist by preference," avowed that the "audacious intrigues" in progress had overpowered those with whom he acted, that they accepted the Republic, and that they only demanded of their recent adversaries a constitution "which should find room for all." M. Wallon's amendment was put to the vote, and accepted by 449 to 249 votes,—that is, not only by a majority of 200 votes, but by 74 votes in excess of a clear half of the entire House of 750 Members.
Indeed, as there are always nearly 50 Members wanting through sickness, foreign duty, and vacant seats, and as every Member possible was polled on Saturday—the Monarchists bringing up even the sick to vote from their beds—it may fairly be said that the Assembly has voted a Re- public by a majority of 99 more than half the entire working Chamber. That is an immense event, whatever its consequences, and as yet there is no evidence that its conse-
quences will be other than legal. M. de Broglie voted with the majority ; the Marshal's organs have given no sign that be disapproves ; and of popular discontent we cannot record a trace. The Bonapartists, in their visible exasperation, may attempt a coup d'e'tat, but they have no military leader of surpassing weight with the Army, they have Marshal MacMahon to defy, and with the President, the Assembly, and the people all acquiescing in one course, the Army is not likely to falsify its historic tradition by acting for itself. The Republic, whether it stands or not, is at least proclaimed.
Let us see what kind of a Republic it is. Clearly it is rather of the American than of the English type, for although the President is elected by the two Houses sitting together, ap- parently as one National Assembly, yet he is elected for a fixed and very long term, and is not removable by any vote, even after a dissolution. Clearly also the Republic is of the " iron- clad " type, for the President possesses all the powers of an American President— already greater than those of an English King—plus the right of initiating dissolution, plus the most extensive patronage in the world, plus a great though as yet unsettled influence over the composition of the Senate. How far this will extend is not yet known, but it is probable that the original De Broglie proposition, the most liberal that statesman ever made, will be revived, and that a majority of the Senate will be elected by the Councils-General, and the choice of the President's section be limited to certain definite categories of highly-placed individuals. In any case, however, the influence will be great, and the Presidency such an object of ambition to all Frenchmen, that we fear every vacancy will be the signal for an almost convulsive struggle between the parties. At the same time, as the Veto is not de- posited with the President, but with the Senate, as an Assembly always desires to elect from within itself, and as the Ministry will apparently be responsible, as at present, both to the President and the Assembly, it will be in the power of the two Houses by very careful selection to convert the Presidency into some- thing very like an elective constitutional kingship. We do not think, however, that this will happen. The mass of Frenchmen look to the individual ruler, and we should imagine that the Constitution, if it succeeds at all, will result in the government of France by its most distinguished and most popular person- alities, whose initiative will be perfect, but whose authority will be tempered always by the impossibility of passing a law, imposing a tax, or raising a loan without the consent of a re- presentative Assembly, in extreme cases by the liability of the President to impeachment for high treason, and in the daily conduct of business by the natural desire to conciliate a body with whom rests the immense prerogative of re-election.
It is easy enough to pick holes in such a Constitution, and we should certainly have preferred a dissolution by thirds, giving a new Chamber by 1880, or a clause making dis- solution inevitable every seven years, so that the President might always be elected by a new Chamber; but we prefer to accept what is obtainable, and point to the immense sacrifices both parties are making to secure safety for their country. The Right Centre are giving up a cherished but impracticable ideal, and the Orleanist Princes a cherished and not quite impracticable hope, for although the right of " revision " at any moment is maintained, still it is burdened with almost as many conditions of assent as in this country or the United States. The President must propose, and both Senate and Assembly assent, before any serious change can be legally effected ; and illegal change is barred, as far it can be barred, by the impeachment clause. Even therefore if a President were secured for Napoleon IV. or Louis Philippe II. and the Senate were overawed, the assent of the Deputies would still have to be secured as to the passing of any other fundamental law. Even in England " revision "is possible on those conditions, and in America the greatest further obstacle is the needful assent of three-fourths of the State Legislatures, and has not, on two great occasions, proved insurmountable. On the other hand, the Left have surrendered their objection to a second House, have allowed the right of revision, have con- ceded the right of dissolution to President and Senate, and have apparently, though this is still doubtful, assented to the clause fixing the permanent seat of Government at Versailles, —a clause which greatly limits, though it does not quite destroy, their power of appealing to the armed citizens of Paris. They have, indeed, throughout the debate displayed an absence of violence, of obstinacy, and of dreaminess which speaks volumes for their advance in the science of compromise, and for the skill, patience, and power of self-effacement in their leaders,—M. Thiers, who can now never be President, and M. Leon Gambetta, who surrenders the chance of a dicta- torship. There is hope in moderation such as this, and though the danger of Bonapartism still remains, and is for the moment very serious, its future effect may be like its present,—just sufficient to steady the march of the founders of the Republic.
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