TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE PROCEEDINGS OF THE CONFERENCE.
THE crisis is still delayed, and a final decision cannot now be expected before Monday. All through the week an impression has prevailed that the Turkish Government had resolved to refuse all concession, and was' in fact, desirous of war, and this impression was justified by all known facts, but on Thursday, when the definitive refusal was expected, it was not sent in. According to the most authoritative accounts which have yet reached London, the Diplomatists finally agreed to six demands,—the establishment of an international commission in Bulgaria ; the division of that province into two administrative districts; the appointment of Christian Governors- General ; the restriction of Turkish soldiers to the fortresses ; the formation of a foreign gendarmerie, and some territorial cessions to Servia and Montenegro. The Turkish Delegates declared that they had no orders to discuss these terms, and Midhat Pasha, in all conferences with the Ambassadors declared them inadmissible. Turkey, he affirmed, had mobilised her forces, and could now lose nothing by war, and she would accept war rather than submit to
any humiliation in sight of her own subjects. So determined was his language, that he was expected to em- body it in a document to be presented to the Conference on Thursday, the Russian Ambassador telegraphed for a steamer to take him away, and England was warned semi-officially that discussion might be finally broken off. On Thursday, how- ever, the Turkish Delegates, though still absolutely re- / fusing to listen to the proposals for a foreign gen- darmerie and an International Commission, consented to discuss them, and a definite settlement was postponed till the next sitting, which was adjourned to Monday. At the same time, it is intimated, though this is more obscure and is denied, that General Ignatieff has again given way, and proposed that the International Commission should be replaced by a Commission of Consuls, and the foreign gen- darmerie by a Turkish gendarmerie, commanded by foreign officers. It is, therefore, considered on all Exchanges, and by almost all politicians, that Russia has given way, and that peace, for the present at all events, will be secured. All Europe, in fact, will recede before the determined resolution of Turkey, and the extreme re- luctance of Russia, Austria, and England to allow war to commence.
This view is a reasonable one, upon the face of the evidence brought forward, but as we do not believe that this evidence covers the case, we are still unable to accept it. We have stated elsewhere reasons for doubting whether Russia is really in a posi- tion which compels her to lower her flag before her hereditary foe, and we see no ground for believing that she could do so without permanent injury to the Monarchy which alone holds her enormous territories together. Russia would stand con- fessed before Europe as a second-rate Power, unable to defy Turkey, even when Europe had renounced the defence of the Porte ; unable to protect Servia ; unable even to resist the extraordinary new claim which the Sultan, according to the telegrams from Bucharest, has advanced to authority over Roumania. That is not a position which the Romanoffs can endure voluntarily, even for a week, and if they are compelled to endure it, Russian negotiation must stand confessed as a troublesome and useless game of brag. We are quite unable to believe it. That Russia is most anxious to conciliate opinion, to have Europe morally with her, and therefore to make apparent conces- sions, is obviously true ; but that she will recede so far as to cenfess herself beaten after mobilising her army, em- barrassing her finances, and destroying the credit of her commercial classes, is an assertion for which neither her history, her ideas, nor her present position affords any sufficient warrant. And if she does not recede and recede very far, it is certain that the Porte will not. teething comes out more clearly in all the telegrams, letters, and despatches from Constantinople than the fact that Midhat Pacha and his colleagues have become desperate ; that they are resolved to put an end to European pressure, and that they either believe, or are inclined to believe, that war would greatly ameliorate their internal position. They are right, too, if the war could be successful, and they are impressed with the idea that they have exagge- rated Russian power, that Turkey being in arms is a match for the Northern Empire, and that while Hobart
Pasha protects their Black Sea coasts, and the Bosphorus is guarded by torpedoes, the active assistance of Great Britain is not indispensable. They would, in fact, rather fight than not, and cannot help regarding every retro- grade step made by General Ignatieff as evidence that Russia is alarmed at war. They will, therefore, as we believe, prove utterly obstinate, and will retract every concession they profess. to make until the point is reached when Russia must either throw up her hand, and abandon the Slays of Turkey, or break off all further negotiation. When this point will be reached we are unable to decide, for we do not know when Midhat Pacha will be convinced that he can have no money from abroad, even if be sells all the mines of the Empire, but that it will be reached we still feel confident. The Turks intend that Europe should let them alone, even in places like the Lebanon, where a system created by foreign inter- ference is still in force and works well ; and as it is impossible for Europe to let them alone, there must ultimately be either war, or a pressure so strong as to convince them that their new attitude, an attitude which would require the abrogation of all treaties, and especially of the Treaty of Paris, cannot be main- tained. As the latter alternative involves a cordial alliance between Great Britain and Russia, the former is the more pro- bable, and it may be accepted sooner than English readers just at this moment suspect.
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