Correspondence
A Letter From Dublin [To the Editor of the SPECTATOR.] SIR,—The political and economic situation here has been so depressing for the major part of last year that most people looked to the holiday season as a time when we should forget all about such matters. Naturally one thought that inside the political parties there would be some activity in preparation for the four• by-elections that are expected to be fought towards the end of February. But we had not expected politics to be brought prominently before our minds. But within three days of Christmas a political sensation was sprung upon the people by a long letter in the press from Senator Vincent. His letter proposed a new party. He lauded Mr. MacDermot and his followers, said that they possessed that "indescribable something" that makes things go, prophesied that at the next General Election they would win twenty to thirty seats, but considered that the MaeDermot party had been started on lines not sufficiently broad. At the same time, he paid a personal tribute to Mr. Cosgrave, commended the great work that he and his party had already done for the country, but asserted that they now lacked that "indescrib- able something." He proposed that Mr. MacDermot and Mr. Cosgrave should combine and form a new National Party. '
The letter created considerable excitement for about forty-
eight hours, but for no longer. It may have been some innate flaw in the proposal itself, or it may have been the leading article in The Irish Times supporting the proposal ; but, whatever the reason may have been, in less than two days the proposal was interpreted as a plan for the ex-unionists to re- establish their old ascendancy. The suggestion that Mr. Cosgrave be included did not prevent this. The man-in-the- street read this as meaning that anything difficult or dangerous was to be passed over to Mr. Cosgrave whose function would be to keep things comfortable and safe for the real new Ascendancy. Another unfortunate thing for the letter was that when the newspapers looked for Mr. MaeDermot to ask for his views on the proposal, it was found that he had gone back to Paris to join his wife and family. The idea that a leader of Irish farmers should be at home in Paris struck the people as ludicrous. The wags talked about the MaeDermot farm on the top of the Eiffel Tower.
But no sooner was the Vincent letter published than it
became known that the Lord Mayor of Dublin had already issued invitations to a meeting in the Mansion House for December 29th. The object of this meeting in the words of the resolution passed at it was, "To call upon all those who, whether farmers or agricultural workers, employers or em- ployees in cities and towns, are interested in the prosperity of our people, and are believers in peace by direct negotiation; to combine their immediate political efforts in one great national movement which will end the present disastrous economic war, ensure the complete maintenance of the Treaty, subject to its alteration or development by the proper methods, and conclude trade agreements with Great Britain which will secure and improve the position of our farmers in the British markets, and make possible the fullest industrial development in this country."
It was at once obvious that the Lord Mayor's proposal could command considerable support. Mr. Cosgrave promptly announced his approval. There was no little speculation as to what line Mr. MacDermot would adopt. The Government organ, The Irish Press, lost no time in betraying its appre- hensions. The situation was one of waiting for events. On Tuesday, they arrived in the early hours of the morning, and the Dublin Telephone Exchange began to be busy. Mr. De Valera had advised the Governor-General to dissolve the Dail, and to declare a General Election for January 24th. When the papers came out on Tuesday. morning there was general surprise and excitement. The reasons for this step have been much canvassed during the day. Mr. De Valera has repeatedly asserted that he intended to retain office as long as he retained the confidence of the Dail. Consequently, this sudden voile face took many people by surprise. '
There was a Cabinet meeting on Monday night which lasted until about ten o'clock. In well-informed circles it is said that that meeting was far from cheerful. In the first place, it was becoming pretty clear that the four by-elections that were to take place next month would all result in victories for the Cosgrave Party. That would have reduced the already slender majority of the Government almost to vanishing-point. Failure to win even one by-election would also destroy the moral position of the Government. It was clear that the General Election could not be postponed many months. The revenue position is bad. The returns show considerable drop. • It is quite clear also that the position must get considerably worse in the immediate future, and that position could not be concealed from the people. It is said that some Ministers were frankly pessimistic about the whole position. As the election could only be held off for a short time, and as postponement could only make the situation worse, it was clearly a case of "the sooner the better." Apart from this, the proposed fusion of the opposition parties was ominous for the Government. It was better to take them unaware, before they had time to go ahead with their plans. There were, of course, many other difficulties. The Government's allies, the Labour Party, could not support the proposed cuts in the Civil Service pay. At the same time the Government had balanced the Bu et by taking credit for the savings calculated to be made y means of these cuts. It was also practically impossible to produce a solution to the Railway problem that would not alienate the Labour Party.
Mr. De Valera's decision does not imply that he is optimistic of winning the election. It means that whatever his chances are now they are likely to be much worse in a few months' time. On the other hand, if he is beaten now it should be' a much less disastrous defeat than it would be if postponed till later. If he is beaten by a small majority the Fianna Fail party can still be a force in politics, and hope that they may at some later time be returned to office. It would also mean that the almost insoluble difficulties that now face the Govern- ment—some of them inevitable, and some produced by the Government's own policy—will have to be dealt with by Mr. Cosgrave.
The sudden tactics of the Government have been chiefly responsible for the alliance between Mr. Cosgrave's and Mr. MacDermot's parties, which has been announced. If Mr. MaeDermot had had more time to gather together a war-chest and to create an organization he would probably have insisted on going ahead with a separate party. As it is, he had to take the step of joining with Mr. Cosgrave, or running the risk Of having very few of his candidates returned and of being answerable for handing the election over to Fianna Fail. .9,s far as one can judge, the news of the brmiediate election has brought general satisfaction. Most people who were in a posi- tion to judge felt that the present condition must bring collapse if continued for another four months or so. But up to the present they have seen no possibility of averting that collapse. Now at least the country has a chance of declaring for a change of policy, and they hope that the country will avail itself of that chance.
A piquant—andliossibly dangerous—situation is created with regard to the I.R.A. and the other Communist and semi- .Communist -bodies. It is generally believed that' there was some sort of understanding between the leaders of these " left " organizations and Mr. De Valera. The understanding was probably that they would support, or at least be benevolently neutral to his administration for the life of this parliament to enable him to abolish the oath and do away with the payment of land annuities to England. He is now going out of office and possibly handing government over to the Cosgrave Party while the oath is not abolished and the land annuities are still in the suspense account pending a final decision as to whether or not they, or any part of them, should be paid to England. Mr. De Valera promised that the next election and the next Dail would be quite free of any oath. Now the candidates for election must sign an undertaking that they will take the oath if elected, and must actually take the oath before they can enter the new Dail.
The I.R.A. have enjoyed practically complete immunity during the last nine months. They are well aware that should Mr. De Valera fail to get a majority in the coming election that immunity will be very promptly ended. His decision therefore to hold an election at this moment may very well be inter- preted by them as treachery on his part.—I am, Sir, &c., - Yowl CORRESPONDENT Dr DUBLE.Z.
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