ANOTHER VOICE
What King Alfred did for Mr Major
PETRONELLA WYATT
In Hertford, Hereford and Hampshire, Labour majorities hardly ever happen. Hampshire, where I spent part of Christ- mas, is ultra-Conservative. It lies in the old Saxon kingdom of Wessex. In the middle of Wessex is the cathedral town of Winch- ester. Winchester was probably the capital of King Alfred the Great (848-899), at any rate, he liked it enough to endow it. He is supposed to be buried there, though nobody quite knows where.
Alfred is one of those kings who appear to exist more in myth than in history. The only 'facts' most of us know about him are that he had piles, founded Parliament and, whilst hiding from vikings, burnt Those Cakes. After Christmas, I decided to look him up. According to 1066 And All That, Alfred the Cake was the first 'Good King'. But the authors put paid to the cakes tale: `As Alfred could not have been an Incendi- ary King and a Good King, we may dismiss the story as absurd.'
Discouraged, I consulted a new book by the respected mediaeval scholar, Professor Alfred Smyth. This was, initially, even more discouraging. Smyth dismisses everything you ever thought you knew about Alfred as absurd. Not only did he not burn cakes, he did not have piles, and he did not found Parliament. All this was made up by a monkish chronicler who forged a memoir of Alfred a century after the king's death.
So what did Alfred do? He still fought the Danes. Come to think of it, by exten- sion, he did more than that. There is a case for arguing that the Conservative Party was founded, not as is generally supposed by Sir Robert Peel, or even by Disraeli, but by Alfred the Great. Or, rather, Alfred was the founder of its electoral fortunes. At this point I must absolve Professor Smyth. This is entirely my theory. It occurred to me while I was comparing two maps of Britain — one showing Alfred's; the other John Major's.
Most of the blue Tory bits on the second map, oddly, corresponded with Alfred's kingdom. Most of the red Labour bits were outside it. Why? Was this a coincidence? Or did King Alfred have something to do with parts of England voting Conservative and others not?
Why, for instance, is the South East the most true-blue of all regions (at the last election Labour captured just one seat)? Why does much of the South West vote Conservative? The answer may be Alfred. Likewise, Alfred could be the reason that one region of East Anglia is usually Tory, whilst the East Midlands forms a critical electoral battleground. Alfred, moreover, could be why much of the North East and North West are Labour. Alfred, in fact, may be Mr Major's salvation.
Alfred came to the throne of Wessex in 871. In 865 the great heathen army of the Danes had landed in England. It was a force intent not only on conquest but set- tlement. The North and parts of the Mid- lands, weakened by internecine quarrels, bore the full brunt of the invasion. After a while, the Danes decided to move south, against Wessex.
After two wars and precarious negotia- tions, Alfred managed to push them back North, preserving the independence of what is now thought of as the heart of Eng- land. The Danes had to fall back on their colonies in the Midlands and the North. The establishment of two Danish blocks, Southern Danelaw and Northern Danelaw, encouraged th e migration of thousands of Scandinavians. Their influence on Northern English soci- ety is inestimable. The Scandinavians are by inclination left-wing. Denmark, Sweden and Norway have crippling welfare and penal taxation. In the 1980s, Sweden tried, with disastrous consequences, to become a Socialist utopia. Denmark's tax rates are, presently, even higher than Sweden's. Let us look at voting behaviour in the former Scandinavian colonies of Northern and Southern Danelaw. Can it be mere chance that Northern Danelaw, which takes in the present North West, was the Tories' worst region at the last election? The Danes based themselves in York. Despite its elegant houses, York is, histori- cally, a safe Labour seat. The North East, too, is Labour. Mr Tony Blair's Sedgefield seat in Durham is in the heart of Northern Danelaw.
Much of the Northern Midlands (South- ern Danelaw) is non-Tory. Indeed, most of the Tory's 100 most marginal seats are in Danelaw. Moving South the Scandinavian influence becomes less strong. East Anglia, once subject to both Alfred and the Danes, has a tendency to go either way; at present, it has Labour target seats. Alfred managed to retain parts of Essex, however, including Billericay. Billericay is now the stronghold of Mrs Teresa Gorman (Tory majority: 23,000).
Consider the main regions of Wessex. These• include the new constituency of Hampshire East. At the last election, in its old incarnation, it was the second safest Tory seat in the country. Alfred spent much of his reign in Winchester (Tory). His greatest victory against the Danes was at Edington (Tory). Alfred besieged them at Chippenham (Tory maj: 16,000). To his cause came the levies of Somerset and the regions around Devizes (Tory maj: 20,000). One could go on for pages.
Alfred, in fine, created a wellspring of instinctive Tory-voting monarchists. In the 870s he stood alone as the survivor of English Christian kingship. His Wessex had a sense of hierarchy and tradition unusual for the time. Alfred was a 'law and order' man, to the extent of writing a Law-Code. He encouraged enterprise while trying to maintain fair play. As far as we can discov- er, Alfred seems by method and tempera- ment an early John Major, preferring, where possible, manouvering to open con- flict. It was because of Alfred's achieve- ments that West Saxon culture was able to withstand the viking onslaughts after his death.
Even the miraculous Mr Blair will have difficulty succeeding where the vikings failed. Alfred's legacy may be too strong for Labour to produce the swing in the South that it needs for a Tory wipe-out. There is precious little certainty, of course, that the voters will treat Mr Major as well as this Saxon king treated his people. But if the Tories do better in the election than is presently predicted, it may have been Alfred wot did it.
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