ALGERIA EMERGING
IHE advent of Algerian independence brings to an end a struggle which has convulsed both North Africa and Metropolitan France for nearly eight years. In the course of it large num- bers of Frenchmen and Algerians have died, the most brutal atrocities have been committed, and French democracy and the authority of the French State have only just survived the strains imposed upon them. Had it not been for the presence of President de Gaulle as the guide and creator of French policy from 1958 onwards, it seems doubtful whether France would have sur- mounted this ordeal without civil war.
It is possible (though not probable) that the President might have brought the struggle to a conclusion slightly earlier by pressing the pace of negotiations, but it is hard to judge this with- out knowledge of the risks involved. Certainly, his is the credit for the excision of the Algerian cancer from French life; and his statesmanship has found the response it deserved in the ranks of the Algerian nationalists. The agreement be- tween the FLN and the OAS cannot satisfy the demands of justice, must, indeed, appear to set a premium on the use of violence, but it was the only alternative to further bloodshed and devas- tation for a country which has had more than its share of both.
The immediate future of Algeria will depend on the ability of the leaders of the new republic to bring about a reconciliation between the com- munities and to maintain a minimum of unity among themselves. Wars of national liberation often degenerate into civil war among the vic- tors, in which the moderates who will have to govern in -peace face the extremists whose atti- tudes have become fixed during the war. At the present moment it seems as though M. Ben Khedda and his provisional government have won the first round of their battle against M. Ben Bella and his associates, but it is too early to do more than hope that an overt clash has been averted. Indignation at the recognition granted to the OAS by the Rocher Noir agreement is bound to be widespread within the ranks of the FLN, and when personal and organisational rivalries are added to this emotional background it is obvious that the political situation in Algeria is going to remain explosive for some time to come. However, the apparent unity of the Algerian Government in face of this threat is a hopeful sign. Whatever appeal M. Ben Bella may make to pan-Arab sentiment, M. Ben Khedda and his supporters are in possession of the machinery of government and have on their side the sympathy of the other States of the Maghreb: Tunisia and Morocco.
The orientation of the new Algerian republic is bound to be, first, towards the Maghreb and then towards Africa rather than in the direction of the Arab world. Pan-Arabism exercises only a limited attraction in North Africa, and the powerful State that the new Algeria will be will probably wish to create its own sphere of influence distinct from that of Egypt and the pre- occupations that sway Middle Eastern politics. The fact that close economic ties with France are indispensable to Algeria's well-being is likely to make the government which emerges after the elections wary of any too definite choice between the Casablanca and the Brazzaville groups of African States. As for the much- discussed project of Maghrebian federation, this will remain a pious aspiration as long as the Algerian demographic crisis frightens neighbours whose economic problems for the moment seem less insoluble.
Ultimately, the emergence of a strong and united Algeria will alter the political map of Africa in ways that can hardly be foreseen. With its resources in oil and natural gas, its industries and capital equipment, its expanding population and the help afforded to it by French technicians, it is bound to exert a preponderant influence north of the Sahara and perhaps over its southern neighbours too.. But this strong and brilliant future is conditional on the whole popu- lation of Algeria, European and Moslem, being willing to forget the past and work together for their new country. M. Ben Khedda and his fellows have already set an example of modera- tion in a field where moderation must have been most difficult for them. The terrible crimes com- mitted by the OAS cannot be pardoned, but have to be ignored if the future of Algeria is to be secured. This is a high price for Algerian Moslems to pay, but the fact that their leaders have so far shown both realism and generosity is the best omen for the future of a new State, to which anyone who cares for world stability must wish success.
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