POLITICS
No holds barred in the
twilight of the goddess
SIMON HEFFER
Yu would have to be abnormally defi- cient in mischief not to wonder what the new grandees of the Conservative Party really thought when they heard the news of Mrs Thatcher's preparations for her earl- dom. Mr Major's sincerity in the matter cannot be doubted; his main problem in life, indeed, is that he appears to lack a senior politician's normally innate reserves of suave dishonesty and ruthlessness. He manifestly meant every word of the glowing tribute he paid his predecessor, perhaps recalling the words of Elizabeth I to an insolent Bishop of Ely — 'My Lord Prelate, I remember what you were before I made you what you are.' The odd colleague, like Mr Kenneth Clarke, who had the rare courage to tell Mrs Thatcher what he really thought of her while she was still in a posi- tion to blight his career, made no attempt in their comments on her departure to pre- tend that it brought them anything less than great personal relief. For the rest, the obsequies entailed a nauseating trudge through the treacly unset tarmac of cant, followed no doubt by retreat to the privacy of their own homes to crack open the champagne. Let us hope for their sakes they did not crack it too soon.
The new-found freedom of the Finchley One creates two absorbing possibilities for the development of what might most tact- fully be called the Tory party's internal dialectic, or what the average Lobby corre- spondent (bereft of tact) would call the party's propensity to split. First and most obviously, Mrs Thatcher can (as she has clearly reminded us) now behave in an unrestrained fashion in drawing attention to the implications of the French plot to drag us into economic, political and mone- tary union. You can be sure that whatever globe-trotting Mrs Thatcher has planned for the rest of this year, she will take care to be in England as November decays into December, when the decision about Britain's role in Europe can be postponed no longer. The Delors compromise, which she knows the Foreign Office is urging the Prime Minister to accept, is morally repug- nant to her, for she sees it as the trap it is. It was clear from the vocal support she had in the Commons last week during and after her speech in the debate on Europe, and from the tenor of speeches by other Tories, and anti-Federasts in other parties, like Dr David Owen and Mr Peter Shore, that she retains the capacity to do seismic damage to this Government if it pursues union.
The second dialectical possibility has a still more profound bearing on the future of the Tory party. Mrs Thatcher cannot command her allies in the Commons from the Lords, where she will have reduced influence and no power, save perhaps for the power to intimidate, and that will fade. In the Commons now her supporters, after months of introspection, face the urgent need to re-group. The Right of the Tory party, like the Labour Left, has projected its influence so efficiently in the past be- cause it has been organised. Mrs Thatcher's departure means the Right can no longer avoid the need to rebuild an ideologically based force in the party under new man- agement, as its old leader translates herself to the position of figurehead.
Without doubt there is a large, highly motivated group of sharp politicians who, with or without her by their sides, will want to maintain her Friedmanite and Hayekian philosophies; and, provided they do it sen- sibly, they will retain the support of a healthy section of the press. Most of these true believers are to be found in the No Turning Back Group, a collection of Tory MPs mainly of the 1983 intake committed to support Thatcherism not just to the death, but beyond it. It is no bunch of loony right-wingers; the Government is littered with its members, some of whom — like Mr Michael Portillo and Mr Francis Maude are certain to be the Cabinet stars of the 1990s, assuming the Tories remain in a position to provide Cabinets. The older generation of true believers — the Ridleys, Tebbits, Parkinsons and, without doubt, Mrs Thatcher herself — are leaving the Commons with a clear conscience only because they have such faith in the young men in No Turning Back. Those about to retire accept there will be a few years yet of doubt, hesitation and pain while a new bat- tle is fought between the young right and `And I can promise that Mr Major will condemn your next pay rise.' the middle-aged consolidators who now hold the lease on the Tory party. But if you could tap in to the fantasies of the Ridleys, Tebbits and Parkinsons, you would almost certainly see a world in ten years' time where Mr Portillo is Prime Minister, Mr Maude Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr Michael Forsyth (fresh from his success in Scotland) the party chairman, Mr Neil Hamilton the Chief Whip, and true belief once more holding sway across the land. After a couple of drinks the fantasy ex- pands to include Mrs Thatcher, in Balfouri- an splendour, serving the nation from the red benches of Their Lordships' House as Her Majesty's Principal Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs. Why does it have to be 'never glad confi- dent morning again'? After all, the sun must set in order to rise.
But there will be such a fight for this inheritance; it has not started yet, and will not start until that time comes when even the combined talents of Mr Gus O'Don- nell, Mrs Douglas Hogg, Mr Bruce Ander- son and the Daily Mail can no longer sus- tain Mr Major. There are intellectual bruis- ers on the other side — like Mr Kenneth Clarke, for whom the Right has more than a sneaking regard, and Mr Chris Patten, whom it regards as a traitor — who will do what they can to stop the tide coming in again. The Right's main advantage — its youth — will for the next ten years be its main disadvantage, as its natural leaders wait patiently to be as old as Mr Major is now. Its second great advantage — its intel- lectual coherence — will be its second great disadvantage, as it may force some of its number to resign office if the threatened European compromise happens, thus los- ing what burgeoning influence they have. Such action would probably also mean that the rebuilding of the Right's power-base would take place in opposition, which not everyone on the Right would regard as a problem.
For the next few months, though, the old leader will still be with them on their green benches, teaching her last lessons, lessons that may take the modern party nearer to apocalypse than it has ever been. Even some of her supporters' stomachs may not prove strong enough for what could come; for we must steel ourselves to witness in the dark months of autumn not so much No Turning Back as No Holding Back.
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