CITY AND SUBURBAN
Technological trouble with a flying clipper aimed at Saddam's moustache
CHRISTOPHER FILDES
INew York t would be nice to have a short, sharp recession, in the same way that it would be nice to have a self-guiding missile with clippers mounted on the nose-cone, able to seek out Saddam Hussein and shave off his moustache. The necessary technology is not there, and if we act on the assumption that it is, we may — in economics, as in war — make an expensive mistake. It would, of course, be nicer not to have a war, or a recession, at all. Failing that, there are plenty of instant experts and three-martini warriors here to tell you that war in the Gulf, if it comes, will be short and sharp — over in days. For myself, I am always distrustful of any military prospectus which includes the clause 'All over by Christmas'. In the same way, I do not buy the prospectus, now on offer both in New York and London, of a short, sharp recession, a kind of economic surgical strike. Such a missile might be just the thing we need at home to trim the eco- nomy's moustache — eminent central bankers say so — after which a neat, spruce economy would put its best face forward. John Major in Washington was telling us all that the missile was zero-ing in. We could now expect some months or rising unemployment and slow growth or none at all. It would, though, trim our inflation, which next year would look a lot sprucer (as it was bound to do, since next year the distortions in the figures will be working in Mr Major's favour) and ought to be growing less strongly, back at its roots.
. What is approaching our stiff upper lips is not some rocket-scientist's dream of a state-of-the-art Flying Clipper, it is a con- ventional subsonic weapon with a monet- ary warhead, the Nigel Lawson Mark II, launched more than a year ago but now at the point of impact. All over by Christmas? Economics, like war, is messier than that. On the US economy, this week's indicator comes from the National Association of Purchasing Management and shows the manufacturing economy at its lowest point for eight years. The NAPM has an index which fluctuates either side of 50 — the higher the better, and 44 or less means recession. It has fallen to 44.4 and is heading south. Here, too, the question about a recession is not 'whether' but 'what kind'?
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