GERMANY
Election diary
MALCOLM RUTHERFORD
Bonn—The West German general election campaign, now in full swing, reminds one of nothing so much as the British cam- paign of 1964, just as the German campaign of 1965 can only have been reminiscent of the British campaign of 1959. On all of these occasions the social democrats or their equivalent have been expected to win. In Britain 1959 they lost, and some of their more emotional supporters actually wept. In 1964 they won, and shortly afterwards some of their more emotional supporters were weeping again--this time at their own party's performance in office.
It could happen here. Support for the Social Democrats in the press, on tele- vision and (for want of a better word) among cultural circles is as weighty today as it may later prove fickle. The enthusiasm and idealism which may well bring home the SPD as the majority party in the govern. ment for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic could also turn out to be the party's own worst enemy. if a predominantly SPD government proves little different in performance from its predeces- sors.
The West German Christian Democrats have been, by any standards, the most successful democratically-elected conserva- tive party in the post-war world. They out- stripped the British Tories in this long ago. and play in a far superior league to their Italian sister party. Today there is every reason for giving them a rest, not least on the thoroughly healthy ground that it is time for a change (though curiously this is an argument which is seldom directly heard here).
The influence which they have had. however, has been great enough for the Social Democrats to have modelled them- selves on the cot image. The SPD long ago discarded its claim to be a truly socialist party ind has gained votes ever since It wants broadly the same things as the amr, but claims that it is more competent to provide them—hence its election slogan 'we have the right men'. It offers a team, whereas the CDU has campaigned tradition- ally in the appeal of its candidate for Chancellor. Herr Brandt, the SPD candidate for Chancellor, actually goes on a platform and says 'what these elections are about is whether the country will uphold the eco- nomic policies of Professor Karl Schiller', the present SPD Economics Minister. The true modesty of this approach can best be appreciated by trying to imagine Mr Wilson going on a platform and saying 'the key issue of the 1971 elections is whether we up- hold the economic policies of Mr Roy Jenkins.'
To set against this approach, the Christian Democrats this time have Chan- cellor Kiesinger. He is a formidable cam- paigner, especially with women, a wise, elo- quent and very political man, but without quite the authority of Dr Adenauer or the economic prestige of .Dr Erhard. On one subject at least Kiesinger is badly treated by the outside world. It is said that he is faint-hearted about Europe. In fa6t the enthusiasm of Dr Kiesinger and his party for a united, federal Europe, even including Britain. is so great as to be positively old- fashioned.
The party which has really veered away from Europeanism in the old sense is the SPD. Herr Brandt and his colleagues would not, I think, easily do anything in western Europe that might risk jeopardising future relations with the East. In this sense, Mr Wilson was on very safe ground when he quoted Herr Brandt in his recent Guildhall speech as authority for saying that Euro- pean federalism was not the work of this generation. The SPD wants a wider econo- mic union, to be sure: it has become much less certain about the merits of creating an exclusively western political unit.
The possibility that the CDU may be de- feated is not the only novelty in the present campaign. All sorts of circumstances could now arise which have never happened be- fore in the Federal Republic. For example no one in Germany knows what is the size of a working majority: in the past all majorities have been big enough for the question not to come up. This time both the big parties are considering the possi- bility of forming a governing coalition with the Free Democrats. The Free Democrats are a notoriously fickle party, some of whose members think it is right-wing and some of whom think it is left. Any alliance with them would risk later disruption.
Moreover even the big parties have not up to now been used to strict party disicpline over voting in the Bundestag. In these circumstances no one knows what sort of majority a new coalition. faced with a hefty opposition, would need. It had always been somehow assumed that around twenty was the minimum. Now the figure is coming down: there have even been sug- gestions that the SPD would be prepared to risk a majority of five in coalition with the FDP. No one knows if that would work, be- cause there are no precedents in the history of the Federal Republic.
Equally untried are the powers of the presidency. The Republic's first two Presi- dents were not called upon to use them much, and did not choose to do so. Presi- dent Heinemann, who took up office this summer, is both a former cou and a former SPD Minister, and has gone out of his way to say that he will use his powers to the full. It is a fairly safe bet that the new coalition, whatever it is, will break up before the next election due in 1973. The President might then have to intervene— and, if the parties could agree on a new government, declare a dissolution. Nothing quite so disruptive has ever happened before.
Herr von Thadden's nationalists are fre- quently denied advertising space in the press and even meeting places, but do not seem to suffer from this. On the assumption that almost any publicity is good pub- licity, the NPD gets from its opponents and the press far more than it could possibly afford to pay for, and would probably do almost as well on polling day if it stopped campaigning altogether. If von Thadden' party does gain the required five per cen of the vote to enter the Bundesta Chancellor Kiesinger at least would like th big parties to get together and effectisdy vote it out again by abolishing proper tional representation. Such a move woul, require a two-thirds majority, and is on th face of it an argument for reconstituting the grand coalition (the Free Democrat could never agree, because this woul mean the end of them as well). The real obstacle, however, would be the Nal) right of appeal to the Constitutional Court. On legal grounds the court would almos certainly uphold the appeal. It is a measur of the difficulties the NPD is causing that there are many here who think tha the legal grounds should be simply over looked.
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