Exact figures
Sir: Teddy Taylor (`Finding a Euro-stance', 26 May) uses figures given in Hansard to substantiate a claim that Britain's GDP is £10,500 million lower than it would have been if we had stayed out of the EEC. Unfortunately the parliamentary answer which he got is based on the wrong question. He asked for figures showing the UK growth rate from base year 1973 to 1982, and was correctly given the figure of 0.8 per cent. However, 1973 was in fact the first year of UK Common Market member- ship, and was also a record year for economic growth. It was 7.5 per cent in that one year.
OECD figures show that from base year 1972 to 1983, the UK had an average growth rate of 1.5 per cent, compared with 2.0 per cent for the EEC as a whole. Figures for the years 1963-72 used by Teddy Taylor were 2.8 per cent for the UK, and 4.6 per cent for the EEC. Before entry the UK growth rate was thus 61 per cent of that of the EEC, compared with 75 per cent in 11 years of membership. Had our growth rate continued to be only 61 per cent of that of the EEC in 1972-83, it would have been 1.2 per cent as opposed to 1.5 per cent. The addition to the growth rate is thus 0.3 per cent per annum, and a cumulative 3.5 per Colin Welch will resume his column next week. cent by 1983. GDP at current market prices in that year was £300 billion, and thus the addition due to EEC membership was £10.5 billion. This is exactly the figure by which Teddy Taylor manages to argue that our output would have been higher if we had stayed out of the EEC!
Christopher Johnson
Group Economic Adviser, Lloyds Bank, 71 Lombard Street, London EC3
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